This week’s forecast is shaped by two things more than anything else: a heavy run of delayed US data releases that can re-price interest-rate expectations quickly, and fresh UK and euro-area growth updates that matter for sterling and the euro at the same time.
So, will dollar rate increase next week? The short version is: the dollar’s next move is likely to hinge on Friday’s US inflation print and Wednesday’s US jobs report, with sterling and the euro reacting mainly through the “rates gap” story (how far each central bank can cut, and how soon).
Market snapshot at the start of the week
Below are indicative starting levels for Monday, based on widely followed market reporting and official reference rates (your dealing rate will vary by provider, timing, and order type):
- GBP/USD: sterling traded around $1.3607.
- EUR/GBP: the euro was reported near £0.8722 (so GBP/EUR around €1.147).
- ECB reference rates (daily benchmark): €1 = $1.1886 and €1 = £0.8701.
- GBP/INR (daily levels): the pound was shown around ₹123.28 on the day-by-day record.
Sterling began the week softer after UK political headlines and shifting expectations about the path of UK interest rates, while the euro held firm against the pound.
Economic calendar: the most data-heavy week of 2026 so far
The government shutdown’s disruption to the economic calendar has created an extraordinary concentration of market-moving releases. investing Here are the events that will drive currency markets this week:
| Date | Event | Expected | Previous | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue, Feb 10 | US Retail Sales (Dec) | — | — | High |
| Tue, Feb 10 | US Employment Cost Index (Q4) | — | — | High |
| Wed, Feb 11 | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan) | ~70K | 50K | Very high |
| Wed, Feb 11 | US Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.4% | 4.4% | High |
| Wed, Feb 11 | US Avg Hourly Earnings (Jan) | 3.6% YoY | 3.8% | High |
| Wed, Feb 11 | China CPI (Jan) | — | — | Medium |
| Thu, Feb 12 | UK GDP (Dec + Q4 2025) | — | — | High |
| Thu, Feb 12 | UK Labour Market Statistics | — | — | High |
| Thu, Feb 12 | US Existing Home Sales (Jan) | — | — | Medium |
| Fri, Feb 13 | US CPI (Jan) | ~2.5% YoY | 2.7% | Very high |
| Fri, Feb 13 | Eurozone GDP (Q4, 2nd est.) | +0.3% QoQ | — | Medium |
| Fri, Feb 13 | Switzerland CPI | — | — | Medium |
| Sun, Feb 15 | Japan GDP | — | — | Medium |
Central bank backdrop
UK rates: held Bank Rate at 3.75% in its February decision, with a notably close 5–4 vote. In its published summary/minutes, the Committee signalled that Bank Rate is likely to be reduced further, while stressing that decisions are becoming “a closer call” as rates move nearer to a more neutral setting.
The next scheduled decision is in March (per the official MPC dates).
US rates: the target range is 3.50%–3.75% (upper limit 3.75%).
The next FOMC meeting is set for mid-March (official calendar).
Euro area rates: the held its deposit rate at 2.00% (with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the marginal lending facility at 2.40%) at the February meeting. The March policy meeting is listed in the ECB’s calendar.
The week’s big scheduled releases
United States (key for the USD forecast this week)
- US Employment Situation (January): Wednesday 11 February, 08:30 ET (official schedule).
- US CPI (January): Friday 13 February, 08:30 ET (official CPI release schedule).
Both releases are unusually market-moving this month because the calendar was shifted by a short government shutdown, concentrating attention into a tighter window.
United Kingdom (key for GBP pairs)
- UK GDP (monthly estimate for December and first quarterly estimate for Q4): Thursday 12 February, 07:00 (ONS calendar).
Euro area (key for EUR pairs)
- Eurostat flash estimate GDP and employment update for Q4 2025: Thursday 12 February (Eurostat release calendar).
- Context: Eurostat’s preliminary estimate showed euro-area GDP up 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025.
Inflation and growth context that matters for FX pricing
- The reported UK CPI inflation at 3.4% in the year to December 2025.
- Euro area annual inflation was estimated at 1.7% in January 2026, with energy a notable drag and services still the highest major component.
- In the US, the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed one‑year ahead expected inflation at 3.1% in January (down from December), with longer-horizon expectations steady.
These details matter because FX markets tend to follow how traders re-price the likely path of rate cuts (or delays to cuts) across the major central banks.
US dollar forecast for the week ahead
This is the core dollar predictions this week:
What would support the dollar (USD) in the very near term?
A combination of a firmer US jobs report and a hotter-than-expected CPI print would normally push market pricing towards “fewer cuts / later cuts”, which tends to lift the dollar against most peers. The reason is straightforward: if US rates are expected to stay higher for longer, US cash yields can look more attractive on a relative basis.
What would pressure the dollar this week?
A weaker jobs report and a softer CPI print would usually re-open the door to easier Fed policy sooner, which can weigh on the dollar. Market commentary leading into this week has repeatedly highlighted that these delayed releases may reshape interest-rate expectations quickly.
A realistic base case for will dollar rate increase next week?
Rather than a single-direction call, it’s more dependable to frame this week as a two‑event risk window:
- If Wednesday’s jobs data is weak, the dollar can soften into Friday.
- If Friday’s CPI then prints firm, the dollar can retrace sharply (even within the same day).
That is why many high-value buyers and sellers prefer a plan (rate target, worst-case level, and timing constraints) rather than trying to “pick the day.”
Key currency pairs for UK-based transfers
GBP/USD outlook
Where we are now: GBP/USD began the week near $1.3607.
Levels that matter: recent published ranges show GBP/USD’s 2026 high near 1.3867 and low near 1.3347, which helps frame support/resistance zones traders watch.
This week’s bias:
- GBP/USD will likely trade as much on the US data surprise as on UK news, because the US calendar is heavier and can move global pricing quickly this week.
- On the UK side, the Bank of England’s close vote makes sterling more sensitive to “good news / bad news” surprises, because investors are still debating how fast/soon the next cut comes.
Working range (week-ahead): a practical expectation is that GBP/USD trades within the broad mid‑1.35s to high‑1.37s area unless the US data meaningfully surprises. This range is intended as a planning guide, anchored to current levels and recent extremes, not a guaranteed boundary.
GBP/EUR outlook
Where we are now: live-dealing levels had EUR/GBP around £0.8722 (GBP/EUR ~ €1.147) in market reporting, while ECB reference rates indicated €1 = £0.8701 (GBP/EUR ~ €1.149). Differences are normal because the ECB reference rate is a once‑daily benchmark, not a live dealing quote.
Levels that matter: published daily data shows a recent high near 1.1612 and a recent low near 1.1433 for GBP/EUR in 2026 to date.
This week’s bias:
- UK GDP on Thursday can matter for sterling, especially if it changes expectations about when the Bank of England might cut again.
- For the euro, updated euro-area GDP estimates can reinforce (or challenge) the ECB’s “steady hands” stance after keeping rates unchanged.
Working range (week-ahead): GBP/EUR plausibly oscillates in the mid‑€1.14s to mid‑€1.15s, with brief moves outside that band possible around Thursday’s UK and euro-area releases.
EUR/USD outlook
Where we are now: the ECB reference rate put EUR/USD at $1.1886.
The macro story: ECB officials have signalled comfort with current settings for now, even with inflation dipping below target in the near term, while reiterating a data-by-data approach.
In parallel, some reporting notes the euro has appreciated strongly versus the dollar over the past year, which keeps EUR/USD very sensitive to any reversal in US rate expectations.
Levels that matter: published daily series show EUR/USD’s 2026 high near 1.2081 and low near 1.1579 so far.
Working range (week-ahead): EUR/USD is likely to be driven first by US jobs (Wednesday) and US CPI (Friday). A planning range of high‑1.17s to low‑1.20s captures current levels and recent ranges, while recognising that Friday’s CPI can be an inflection point.
GBP/INR outlook
Where we are now: published daily levels show GBP/INR around ₹123.28.
Key drivers this week:
- INR drivers include foreign flows and local rate expectations. Reuters reporting highlighted a recent rupee move tied to foreign inflows and noted the Reserve Bank of India holding rates at 5.25%.
- GBP/INR also inherits volatility from GBP/USD and USD/INR. That means US jobs/CPI can spill into GBP/INR even if there is no major UK‑India headline in the moment.
Near-term and longer-view scenarios
The near-term picture
This week is best viewed as a sequence:
- Thursday: UK GDP and euro-area GDP updates can set the tone for sterling vs euro.
- Wednesday and Friday: US jobs and US CPI can reset the “rates gap” story globally, often dominating currency moves even for GBP/EUR.
Given the Bank of England’s narrow vote and forward guidance that rates are likely to be reduced further, sterling may react more sharply than usual to surprises in UK activity and inflation expectations.
The longer view for the rest of this year
- Sterling: the Bank of England has already begun easing from prior highs, and its February minutes explicitly framed further reductions as likely, with debate focused on timing and extent.
- Dollar: the Fed’s current target range remains 3.50%–3.75%, so the dollar’s medium-term direction will stay closely tied to whether inflation falls fast enough to justify further cuts without a renewed price scare.
- Euro: the ECB is holding at 2.00% on the deposit facility rate, with messaging that the outlook is uncertain and policy will remain meeting-by-meeting.
Recent ECB commentary has underlined two ideas that can matter for EUR/USD and EUR/GBP over time: inflation is projected to stabilise around the 2% objective in the medium term, and policymakers are watching the euro’s level and pace of appreciation, even if they do not target an exchange rate.
Practical transfer guidance
When you’re dealing with a property completion, a business acquisition, or a large invoice run, the main aim is usually budget certainty rather than “beating the market by a fraction”.
Two simple rules help this week:
Set your decision points before the data hits. US jobs (Wednesday) and US CPI (Friday) are scheduled at fixed times, and spreads can widen around releases. Planning your “go / no-go” levels ahead of time can reduce rushed decisions.
Use tools that match your timing risk.
- A forward contract is a bilateral agreement to exchange at an agreed price on an agreed future date, which many firms use to manage FX exposure.
- A limit order lets you target a specific exchange rate; if the market reaches it, the exchange can be executed automatically (provider terms vary).
What a small move can mean in cash terms
- If you’re converting €500,000 of overseas property proceeds back to pounds at roughly EUR/GBP 0.872, a 1% move is about £4,360.
- If you’re buying euros with £250,000 at roughly GBP/EUR 1.147, a 1% move is about €2,868.
That is why many clients split exposure: securing a portion now (for certainty) and leaving a portion to target an improved rate via a limit order for a set period.
If you’d like a tailored view for your currency pair and timeline, a quick call with a currency specialist can help you map out a plan and get a live quote that fits your amount, dates, and risk comfort.
