Below is the Cambridge Currencies weekly forecast for the US dollar, pound and euro, along with the key economic events that could drive markets in the coming days.
Market Snapshot — 9 March 2026
| Currency Pair | Rate | Currency Pair | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | 1.3431 | EUR/USD | 1.1616 |
| USD/JPY | 157.86 | USD/CAD | 1.3562 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7076 | DXY (US Dollar Index) | 98.8 |
The Big Picture: What Is Driving Currency Markets
The US Dollar Index (DXY) currently trades near 98.85, around 5% lower than the same period last year.
That decline reflects a gradual shift in global investor expectations. While the US economy continues to expand, markets have begun pricing a slower pace of growth compared with the strong performance seen in 2023 and early 2024.
Over the past month the dollar has stabilised slightly, rising just over 2%, but this move appears more like a short-term correction rather than the beginning of a sustained rally.
This week’s economic releases will therefore help determine whether the dollar resumes its broader downward trend or strengthens again ahead of next week’s central bank meetings.
One early data point has already provided a signal for markets. China’s February CPI rose to 1.3% year-on-year, significantly above expectations and a sharp improvement from January’s 0.2%. Stronger Chinese inflation tends to support global risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian dollar.
Key Economic Data This Week
| Day | Currency | Event | Previous | Forecast | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9 | CNY | CPI YoY February | 0.2% | 0.8% | High |
| Tue 10 | CNY | Trade Balance Jan–Feb | $114.1B | $179.6B | High |
| Tue 10 | EUR | German Trade Balance | €17.1B | €15.2B | Medium |
| Wed 11 | USD | Core CPI YoY February | 2.5% | 2.5% | High |
| Wed 11 | USD | Headline CPI YoY February | 2.4% | 2.4% | High |
| Fri 13 | GBP | UK GDP MoM January | 0.1% | 0.2% | High |
| Fri 13 | USD | GDP Q4 Second Estimate | 4.4% | 1.4% | High |
| Fri 13 | USD | JOLTs Job Openings | 6.54M | 6.70M | High |
| Fri 13 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 56.6 | 55 | Medium |
The US CPI release on Wednesday is widely expected to be the most influential event of the week for currency markets globally.
US Dollar Forecast This Week
The outlook for the US dollar largely depends on whether inflation data changes expectations around future Federal Reserve policy.
The Fed is currently expected to hold its target range at 3.50–3.75% at next week’s meeting, meaning near-term market direction will depend on whether inflation data strengthens or weakens the case for future rate cuts.
Key inflation expectations
• Core CPI YoY: 2.5% forecast
• Headline CPI YoY: 2.4% forecast
If inflation comes in above expectations, the dollar may strengthen as markets delay expectations for interest rate cuts. Conversely, weaker inflation would reinforce the narrative of gradual economic cooling.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
Key levels
Support: 97.50 – 98.00
Resistance: 100.00
Current level: 98.85
Weekly bias: mildly bearish
Our base expectation is for the dollar index to trade between 97.80 and 99.50 during the week.
A softer CPI reading would likely push the index closer to the lower end of that range.
GBP Forecast This Week
Sterling has remained relatively resilient during the early months of 2026.
The pound continues to receive support from the Bank of England’s cautious approach to rate cuts.
The main domestic driver for the pound this week will be Friday’s UK GDP data, where economists expect a modest improvement in monthly growth.
GBP/USD Forecast
Key levels
Support: 1.3300
Resistance: 1.3550
Expected trading range: 1.3300 – 1.3550
A weaker US CPI print would likely support GBP/USD and push the pair toward the upper end of this range.
However, stronger US inflation could drive the pair back toward the 1.3300 level.
Weekly bias: mildly bullish
GBP/EUR Forecast
The ECB has held its deposit rate at 2.00% since June 2025 and is widely expected to hold again at next week’s meeting, while the Bank of England is likely to keep rates unchanged at 3.75%.
The ongoing rate differential continues to favour sterling.
Expected range: 1.16 – 1.18
EUR Forecast This Week
The euro has gained more than 7% against the dollar over the past year, but recent gains have slowed as markets expect the ECB to continue holding rates at 2.00%.
Once interest rate expectations are fully priced into markets, currencies often struggle to extend gains without new economic catalysts.
Tuesday’s German trade balance data will provide an important signal on the strength of Europe’s largest economy.
EUR/USD Forecast
Key levels
Support: 1.1500
Resistance: 1.1700
Expected range: 1.1520 – 1.1680
EUR/USD may remain range-bound this week unless US inflation data surprises markets.
Weekly bias: neutral
Other Currency Pairs to Watch
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar is currently one of the strongest major currencies in 2026, supported by improving Chinese economic data.
China’s trade balance figures could further influence the pair this week.
Expected range: 0.6980 – 0.7150
USD/JPY
The yen remains under pressure due to the significant interest rate difference between the US and Japan.
However, Japan’s trade balance data may provide a near-term catalyst.
Key levels:
Support: 155.00
Resistance: 160.00
USD/CAD
The Canadian dollar often benefits from higher oil prices due to Canada’s role as a major energy exporter.
The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its cautious stance at its next meeting.
Expected range: 1.3400 – 1.3700
Oil Prices and Geopolitical Risk
Rising geopolitical tensions have pushed oil prices higher in recent weeks.
This can influence currencies in several ways:
- Canada often benefits from stronger oil prices due to its export sector.
- Japan may face pressure on the yen as higher energy prices widen its trade deficit.
- Commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar can gain support from stronger resource demand.
While geopolitical developments are important, economic data remains the dominant driver for currency markets this week.
Managing Currency Risk on Large Transfers
Periods of heavy economic data releases often lead to increased volatility in currency markets.
For individuals or businesses transferring large sums internationally, even small exchange rate movements can have a significant impact.
For example: a 1% movement on a £200,000 transfer represents £2,000.
Common tools used to manage exchange rate risk include:
• Forward contracts – lock in an exchange rate for a future transfer
• Market orders – automatically execute when a target rate is reached
• Rate alerts – receive notifications when markets reach a chosen level
Speak With a Currency Specialist
If you are planning a significant international transfer, speaking with a currency specialist can help you understand available options and current market conditions.
Cambridge Currencies supports individuals and businesses transferring large amounts overseas, providing guidance on exchange rate timing and transfer strategies.
Request a live quote
Speak with a currency specialist
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the pound rise this week?
Sterling may strengthen slightly if UK GDP meets expectations and US inflation softens. However, stronger US data could support the dollar.
What is the GBP/USD forecast this week?
GBP/USD is expected to trade between 1.3300 and 1.3550, with a potential test of the 1.3500 level if US inflation comes in below expectations.
What will drive the US dollar this week?
The main catalyst will be Wednesday’s US CPI release, followed by GDP revisions and labour market data later in the week.
Is the euro expected to rise or fall?
EUR/USD may remain range-bound this week as markets wait for the European Central Bank’s next interest rate decision.
Disclaimer
This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial guidance. Exchange rate forecasts are based on publicly available market data as of 9 March 2026. Currency markets can move rapidly and forecasts may change as new information becomes available.
