Below is the Cambridge Currencies weekly currency forecast covering the US dollar, pound and euro, along with the key events that could drive markets in the days ahead.
The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both make rate decisions on Thursday — within 75 minutes of each other — while the Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday. Three major central bank decisions across two consecutive days can produce sharp moves across GBP, EUR and USD, and anyone planning a large international transfer should be watching closely this week.
Market Snapshot — 15 March 2026
| Currency Pair | Rate | Currency Pair | Rate |
| GBP/USD | 1.3220 | EUR/USD | 1.1417 |
| USD/JPY | 159.73 | USD/CAD | 1.3719 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6981 | DXY (Dollar Index) | 100.36 |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1580 | USD/CHF | 0.7915 |
Rates as of 15 March 2026. For a live transfer quote contact a Cambridge Currencies specialist.
Key Events This Week
| Day | Ccy | Event | Previous | Forecast |
| Mon 16 | CNY | Industrial Production YoY Jan–Feb | 5.1% | 5.0% |
| Mon 16 | CAD | Inflation Rate YoY Feb | 2.1% | 2.3% |
| Tue 17 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 3.85% | 4.10% |
| Tue 17 | EUR | ZEW Economic Sentiment Mar | 39.4 | 58.3 |
| Wed 18 | USD | PPI MoM Feb | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Wed 18 | USD | Fed Rate Decision & Powell Press Conference | 3.50–3.75% | 3.50–3.75% hold |
| Thu 19 | GBP | Bank of England Rate Decision | 3.75% | 3.75% hold |
| Thu 19 | EUR | ECB Rate Decision & Lagarde Press Conference | 2.00% (deposit) | 2.00% hold |
| Tue 24 | GBP | UK Services PMI Flash Mar | 51.8 | 53.9 |
| Wed 25 | GBP | UK Inflation Rate YoY Feb | 2.8% | 3.0% |
US Dollar Outlook
The dollar has recovered from its recent lows, with the DXY climbing back above 100 after touching 97–98 in late February. The medium-term trend remains one of gradual softening — the Fed has been cutting rates since late 2025 and markets continue to price further easing later in 2026 — but in the short term the dollar has found support ahead of this week’s events.
Wednesday’s FOMC decision is the most important event of the week. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%, but the updated dot plot projections will be closely watched. Oil prices have surged to around $100 a barrel following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February. Higher energy prices feed directly into US inflation, which could prompt the Fed to revise its rate cut projections downward on Wednesday. If the dot plot shows fewer cuts expected for 2026, the dollar is likely to strengthen.
Current level: 100.36
Support: 98.00 – 98.50
Resistance: 101.50 – 102.00
Weekly bias: Neutral — direction set by Wednesday’s Fed
GBP Outlook
Sterling has pulled back from its January highs above 1.38 and is currently around 1.3220 against the dollar. The Bank of England holds on Thursday and is expected to keep rates at 3.75%. The MPC vote split will be the key focus — markets are forecasting three members voting to cut and six to hold. However, with oil prices around $100 a barrel following the Middle East conflict, the inflation picture has become more complicated. Higher energy costs risk pushing UK inflation higher for longer, which could give the more hawkish MPC members reason to resist cuts.
Later in the week, UK inflation data on 25 March is forecast to rise to 3.0% from 2.8%. A higher reading would push back against cut expectations and support sterling.
GBP/USD current level: 1.3220 | Range: 1.3050 – 1.3450
GBP/EUR current level: 1.1580 | Range: 1.1450 – 1.1700
Weekly bias: Mildly bearish — MPC vote shift toward cuts is the key risk for sterling this week
EUR Outlook
The euro is trading around 1.1417 against the dollar, having eased from recent highs above 1.16. The ECB holds on Thursday with its deposit rate expected to remain at 2.00%. The reaction will come from Lagarde’s press conference — any hint of a more cautious stance on future cuts would support the euro.
The oil price surge also complicates the ECB’s position. Higher energy costs add upside pressure to eurozone inflation at a time when the ECB has been signalling comfort with the current level of rates.
EUR/USD current level: 1.1417 | Range: 1.1300 – 1.1600
Weekly bias: Neutral — range-bound around central bank decisions
What This Means for Your Transfer
The Middle East conflict and the surge in oil prices to around $100 a barrel add a further layer of uncertainty to this week’s central bank decisions. Central banks that were on a gradual easing path now face the prospect of stickier inflation from higher energy costs.
If you have a transfer coming up and want to understand your options — whether that is locking in a rate now with a forward contract, setting a target rate with a market order, or simply understanding the timing — speak with a Cambridge Currencies specialist.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial guidance. Exchange rate forecasts are based on publicly available market data as of 15 March 2026. Cambridge Currencies Ltd works exclusively with FCA-authorised payment partners.
