GBP/USD ended last week at around 1.334, its weakest level since mid-April, after a far stronger-than-expected US jobs report pushed the dollar to a near two-month high. The two events that dominate the week of 8 June 2026 are US inflation (CPI) on Wednesday 10 June and the European Central Bank’s rate decision on Thursday 11 June. The Federal Reserve (17 June) and Bank of England (18 June) both decide the following week, so this week is largely about positioning ahead of them. GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.32 and 1.36 and GBP/EUR between 1.14 and 1.16.
For anyone with a June transfer, the calendar is unusually front-loaded with risk: a major US inflation print and an ECB decision inside 48 hours, then two more central banks the week after.
Last week in review: the dollar found its footing
Sterling spent most of last week on the back foot against a firming dollar. GBP/USD opened near its weekly high of 1.348 on Monday 2 June, then drifted lower before a sharp Friday fall to a low of 1.334 — a near 0.5% intraday drop, the largest single-day move of the week.
The catalyst was Friday’s US employment report. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, more than double the consensus estimate of around 80,000–85,000, with a further 93,000 of upward revisions to the prior two months and unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to roughly 99.25, a near two-month high, and posted a gain for the week.
| Pair | Mon 2 Jun | Fri 5 Jun close | Weekly move |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ~1.346 | ~1.334 | Lower (low 1.334) |
| GBP/EUR | ~1.154 | ~1.153 | Broadly flat |
| EUR/USD | ~1.167 | ~1.155 | Lower |
| DXY | ~98.3 | ~99.25 | Higher (2-month high) |
The takeaway: a resilient US labour market reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, which supported the dollar and weighed on both sterling and the euro.
Where the major pairs stand now
As of Friday’s close on 5 June 2026, GBP/USD trades around 1.334, GBP/EUR near 1.153, and EUR/USD near 1.155. Live mid-market rates update throughout each business day on our GBP to USD converter.
| Pair | Approx. rate (5 Jun) | This week’s likely range | This week’s key driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/EUR | 1.153 | 1.14 – 1.16 | ECB decision (11 Jun) |
| GBP/USD | 1.334 | 1.32 – 1.36 | US CPI (10 Jun), dollar momentum |
| EUR/USD | 1.155 | 1.15 – 1.18 | US CPI (10 Jun), ECB tone |
Ranges are guidance based on current market positioning and are not predictions.
What is the economic calendar this week?
This week’s scheduled highlights, in order:
- Tuesday 9 June — ECB President Lagarde speech. Watched closely for any steer ahead of Thursday’s decision.
- Wednesday 10 June — US Consumer Price Index (CPI). The week’s biggest data release and a direct input to the Fed meeting the following week. A hot print would reinforce last week’s dollar strength.
- Wednesday 10 June — Bank of Canada rate decision. The main event for GBP/CAD and USD/CAD this week.
- Thursday 11 June — ECB rate decision and press conference. The deposit rate decision lands at 12:15 UTC (13:15 BST), with Lagarde’s press conference following at 12:45 UTC.
- Thursday 11 June — US Producer Price Index (PPI).
- Friday 12 June — UK monthly GDP, plus eurozone final inflation (HICP) and US Michigan consumer sentiment.
What is driving the markets this week?
US inflation is the swing factor. Wednesday’s CPI is the most important scheduled release of the week. With petrol above $4 a gallon and US wholesale prices having jumped 6% in April, another firm reading would harden the view that the Fed has little room to cut — extending the dollar strength that took GBP/USD to 1.334 on Friday.
The ECB decision shapes GBP/EUR. Markets have priced a June ECB rate move as the likely outcome, driven by energy-led inflation. The Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75% against the ECB’s 2.00% deposit rate — a 175bp gap that has underpinned sterling against the euro through 2026. An ECB hike would narrow that gap and tends to strengthen the euro, pulling GBP/EUR toward the lower end of its range.
UK data and politics. Friday’s UK monthly GDP will test how much momentum the economy retains. UK fiscal and political headlines have intermittently weighed on sterling through the year.
What about the Fed and Bank of England?
Both decide next week, not this week — but markets will spend this week positioning for them.
- Federal Reserve — Wednesday 17 June. This is new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting (confirmed by the Senate in a narrow 54–45 vote), arriving with a fresh dot plot — the first formal read on his rate path. After Friday’s jobs beat and ahead of Wednesday’s CPI, the near-term case for a cut has weakened.
- Bank of England — Thursday 18 June. The MPC has been finely split (a recent 5–4 hold). With inflation expectations rising on energy, some analysts now see the next move as a hold or even a hike rather than the cut markets expected earlier in the year.
Anthony Bull, CEO of Cambridge Currencies, on the week ahead: “Friday’s jobs number was a reminder of how fast a single release can move a rate — GBP/USD gave up half a percent in a session. This week brings US inflation and the ECB inside two days, then the Fed and the Bank of England the week after. The clients who sleep well through a run like this are the ones who’ve already removed the uncertainty, not the ones trying to call the exact top.”
Short-term outlook (this week)
GBP/USD is forecast between 1.32 and 1.36, with Wednesday’s US CPI the most likely catalyst; the bias stays lower while the dollar holds last week’s gains. GBP/EUR is forecast between 1.14 and 1.16, with the ECB decision on 11 June the key event — a hike would pressure the pair toward the lower end. Expect quieter trading Monday and early Tuesday, then sharper moves around the CPI release on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday.
Medium-term outlook (3–12 months)
Major-bank consensus for year-end 2026 clusters around GBP/EUR at 1.13–1.18 and GBP/USD at 1.33–1.40, with the wide GBP/USD range reflecting genuine disagreement (Goldman Sachs near 1.36, MUFG up at 1.40, Morgan Stanley as high as 1.47). The euro is widely expected to stay firm but range-bound. The dollar’s path now depends heavily on whether the strong labour market and sticky inflation persist into the second half of the year.
The honest summary: the medium-term picture is unusually uncertain, and that argues for managing risk rather than betting on a single outcome.
What this means for your transfers
With a major US inflation print and an ECB decision this week — and the Fed and Bank of England next week — anyone transferring in June faces several separate volatility events in quick succession.
- Property buyers (EUR or USD): If your completion date falls after one of these events, a forward contract lets you lock today’s rate for up to 12 months and remove the timing risk.
- Businesses paying invoices: Recurring EUR or USD supplier payments can be planned around the calendar rather than caught out by it.
- Sellers repatriating funds: If you’re bringing proceeds back to the UK, the rate gap currently favours sterling sellers of euros — but that edge narrows if the ECB hikes on Thursday.
A brief word on strategy
For larger exposures, splitting a transfer — moving part now and part after the key dates — is one way to avoid committing everything to a single moment of volatility. A market order can also target a specific rate automatically. Which approach fits depends on your deadline and how much certainty you need; a specialist can walk you through the trade-offs.
Cambridge Currencies works exclusively with FCA-authorised payment partners — Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951) — and all transfers are completed by phone with a dedicated specialist who knows your transaction.
Frequently asked questions
What happened to the pound last week?
GBP/USD fell to around 1.334 by Friday 5 June 2026, its weakest since mid-April, after a US jobs report showed 172,000 payrolls added in May — far above the ~80,000 expected — pushing the dollar to a near two-month high. GBP/EUR was broadly flat near 1.153.
What are the key currency events this week?
For the week of 8 June 2026, the two biggest scheduled events are US inflation (CPI) on Wednesday 10 June and the European Central Bank’s rate decision on Thursday 11 June. The Bank of Canada also decides on 10 June, and UK GDP is released on Friday 12 June.
When do the Fed and Bank of England decide rates?
The Federal Reserve decides on 17 June 2026 (Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting) and the Bank of England on 18 June 2026 — both the week after this forecast. Markets will position ahead of them throughout this week.
Is the ECB expected to raise rates on 11 June?
Markets have priced a June ECB rate move as the likely outcome, driven by energy-led inflation. A hike would narrow the gap with the Bank of England’s 3.75% rate and tends to support the euro, weighing on GBP/EUR.
What is the current Bank of England base rate?
The Bank of England base rate is 3.75% as of June 2026. The next decision is on 18 June, with the MPC finely split between holding and a possible move higher.
Should I lock in my exchange rate before these events?
A forward contract lets you fix today’s rate for up to 12 months, removing the uncertainty around the June data and decisions. Whether that suits you depends on your deadline and exposure — a Cambridge Currencies specialist can explain the options by phone.
Planning a transfer around this week’s US inflation data or the ECB decision? Speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist about timing your GBP, EUR, or USD transfer — or request a quote and we’ll talk you through your options by phone before anything is fixed.
