For most of this year the pound to euro rate was one of the calmest pairs in the G10, pinned inside a two-cent range. That has changed. If you are paying euro invoices from the UK, completing a property purchase in the eurozone, or bringing sale proceeds back to sterling, the level in front of you now is materially better than it was a month ago — and the reasons matter. You can check the live GBP to EUR rate or request a quote to talk it through with a specialist.
What is the pound doing against the euro right now?
As at 13 July 2026:
| Measure | Level | Context |
|---|---|---|
| GBP/EUR | ~1.1738 | A one-year high, set 11 July — above the 1.14–1.16 band that held all spring |
| EUR/GBP | ~0.852 | The same rate, inverted |
| Bank of England Bank Rate | 3.75% | Held 18 June (7–2, with two voting to raise); next decision 30 July |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.25% | Raised 11 June; markets price an 88% chance of a hold on 23 July |
| Rate gap | 150 basis points | No longer expected to narrow — this is the whole story |
GBP/EUR set its 2026 low at 1.1402 on 1 March and spent the next four months inside a 1.14–1.16 corridor. The move above 1.17 in July is the first genuine break of that range — and unlike a typical drift, it has a clear cause on both sides of the pair.
Why the pound broke higher: the ECB’s hiking case collapsed
On 11 June the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, its first increase since 2023, because eurozone inflation had climbed to 3.2% on the Middle East energy shock. The expectation at the time was that more hikes would follow, narrowing the gap with the UK and lifting the euro.
Three weeks later, eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% — back near the ECB’s 2% target. The energy spike that prompted the hike is unwinding almost as fast as it arrived: Brent has dropped from above $110 a barrel in April to the low-$90s since the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
Markets have drawn the obvious conclusion. Pricing now implies an 88% probability the ECB simply holds at 2.25% on 23 July, and the September hike that looked like a coin-flip a month ago now looks unlikely. The rate gap that was supposed to close is instead expected to stay at 150 basis points — and sterling keeps its yield advantage.
Meanwhile the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June in a 7–2 vote — with the two dissenters voting to raise, not cut. UK headline inflation is 2.8%, but services inflation at 3.7% keeps the MPC cautious. A central bank in no hurry to cut is supportive for the pound.
UK politics: the risk that turned into a tailwind
Until late June, UK political instability was the main downside risk to sterling. It has since become the opposite.
Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation on 22 June. Rather than the drawn-out, destabilising contest markets feared, Andy Burnham secured the backing of more than 80% of the Parliamentary Labour Party, is expected to be confirmed as leader on 17 July, and to take office shortly afterwards. An orderly, effectively uncontested succession removed the tail risk that had been discounting the pound.
This matters for a practical reason: the risk premium that was sitting in the price has been released, and it is not obvious what puts it back in the short term. The next genuine political test is the incoming chancellor’s fiscal stance, not the leadership itself.
My GBP/EUR forecast for the next six months
These are Cambridge Currencies’ ranges as at 13 July 2026, based on current market pricing. They are not guarantees and rates may move either way. This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and around each ECB and Bank of England decision.
For the pound to hold above 1.17, the current setup simply needs to persist: the ECB on hold with inflation near target, and the Bank of England in no rush to cut while services inflation runs at 3.7%. That is the base case.
For GBP/EUR to fall back toward 1.15, you would need one of two things: eurozone inflation to turn back up, reviving the ECB’s hiking case, or the Bank of England to start cutting. Neither looks imminent on current data — but a fiscal shock from the incoming UK government is the risk that is not on anyone’s forecast sheet.
The honest caveat: a month ago the consensus, mine included, was that the rate gap would narrow and the euro would firm. It did the opposite. Currency forecasts built on one month’s data rarely survive the next month’s data — which is precisely the argument for not leaving a large exposure to the market’s mercy. For the euro’s side of the story, see my euro forecast 2026; for sterling against the dollar, my GBP to USD forecast.
Is it a good time to buy euros with pounds?
GBP/EUR near 1.1738 is the best level for a sterling buyer of euros in a year. That is a statement of fact about where the rate sits, not a prediction that it will hold.
If you are buying euros — paying a eurozone supplier, funding a property purchase in Spain, France, Portugal, Italy or Greece — the move has gone your way. Put numbers on it:
| Amount | Cost at 1.1535 (a month ago) | Cost at 1.1738 (today) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| €100,000 supplier invoice | £86,693 | £85,194 | £1,499 cheaper |
| €400,000 property purchase | £346,771 | £340,774 | £5,997 cheaper |
| €1,000,000 completion | £866,927 | £851,935 | £14,992 cheaper |
If you are selling euros — bringing eurozone property or business sale proceeds back to sterling — the same arithmetic has gone against you. €300,000 converts to about £255,580 at 1.1738, against £260,078 a month ago. Roughly £4,500 of erosion in four weeks, on a single transfer.
Either way, the scale of the numbers is the point. A 2% move on a €500,000 purchase is around £8,500 — far more than the difference between any two brokers’ rates, and far more than most people spend any time thinking about.
Three central-bank decisions in eight days
The ECB on 23 July, the Federal Reserve on 29 July and the Bank of England on 30 July all land inside a single week. Moves of a cent or two within hours of any of them are not unusual. If you have a euro payment falling due in that window, that is a lot of variance to leave open.
- Forward contract — fixes today’s rate for a payment up to twelve months ahead, typically for a deposit of 5–10%. The straightforward answer if you have a completion date and cannot absorb a swing.
- Rate alert — set a target level and be notified if the market reaches it. Useful if you have time and no fixed deadline.
- Splitting the transfer — converting in tranches averages your rate across the noise rather than betting the whole amount on one day.
The most expensive mistake we see is not picking the wrong moment — it is leaving a large euro exposure open across a central-bank decision in the hope of a slightly better rate. On a property purchase, a cent either way is thousands of pounds. If you pay euro invoices regularly, our guide on paying euro bills from the UK covers the methods and costs in more detail.
Frequently asked questions
What is the pound to euro forecast for 2026?
GBP/EUR is forecast to trade in a 1.15–1.19 range through Q3 2026 and 1.14–1.19 in Q4. It currently trades near 1.1738, a one-year high. The pound is supported by the Bank of England’s 3.75% Bank Rate against the ECB’s 2.25% — a 150 basis-point gap that is no longer expected to narrow, now that eurozone inflation has fallen back to 2.8%.
Why is the pound so strong against the euro right now?
Two reasons compounded. Eurozone inflation fell to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, undercutting the case for further ECB rate hikes — so the rate gap with the UK is expected to stay at 150 basis points rather than narrow. Separately, UK political uncertainty resolved: Andy Burnham is set to be confirmed as Labour leader on 17 July with over 80% of the parliamentary party behind him, removing a risk premium from sterling.
Will the pound get stronger against the euro?
The pound is already at a one-year high near 1.1738. For it to hold or push higher, the current setup needs to persist — the ECB on hold with inflation near target, and the Bank of England in no rush to cut. A fall back toward 1.15 would need eurozone inflation to turn back up or the Bank of England to begin cutting, neither of which looks imminent.
Should I buy euros now or wait?
GBP/EUR near 1.1738 is the best level for euro buyers in a year, and three central-bank decisions fall within eight days — the ECB on 23 July, the Fed on 29 July and the Bank of England on 30 July. If you have a fixed deadline such as a property completion, a forward contract fixes today’s rate and removes the need to time any of them. If you have time and no deadline, a rate alert lets you target a better level. This is general guidance, not a personal recommendation.
When is the next Bank of England and ECB rate decision?
The ECB decides on Thursday 23 July 2026, with markets pricing an 88% probability of a hold at 2.25%. The Bank of England follows on Thursday 30 July, where another hold at 3.75% is widely expected — though two MPC members voted to raise rates in June. See our Bank of England rate decision guide.
What is the GBP to EUR rate today?
GBP/EUR is trading around 1.1738 as at 13 July 2026 (about €1.174 to the pound, or EUR/GBP near 0.852) — a one-year high. The 2026 range has run from 1.1402 (low, 1 March) to the current high. Live mid-market rates update through each business day on our GBP to EUR converter.
Speak to a specialist about your euro transfer
On a property purchase or a year of supplier payments, the rate you get makes a real financial difference — yet for most people foreign exchange is not something they handle often. Every Cambridge Currencies transfer is completed by phone with a dedicated specialist — a dealer, not an app — who watches the market on your behalf, including around scheduled ECB and Bank of England decisions.
We support UK businesses paying euro suppliers and individuals completing property purchases across Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Greece. We work with FCA-authorised payment partners — Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951) — with client funds safeguarded at a credit institution in line with UK safeguarding rules. Request a quote, follow every meeting in our weekly currency forecast, or see the wider picture in our currency forecasts hub. This article is general guidance to help you make your own informed decision, not a personal recommendation.
