GBP/EUR reached its 2026 high of 1.1782 in July and has given some of that back as the European Central Bank resumed raising rates. If you are paying euro invoices from the UK, completing a property purchase in the euro area or bringing sale proceeds back to sterling, the direction of the Bank of England–ECB rate gap is the thing to watch. Check the live GBP to EUR rate or request a quote to talk it through with a specialist.
What is the pound doing against the euro right now?
| Measure | Level | Context |
|---|---|---|
| GBP/EUR | 1.1622 (25 September) | Down 1.4% from the July high of 1.1782; up 1.8% from the February low of 1.1412 |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8605 | The same rate, inverted |
| Bank of England Bank Rate | 3.75% | Held 17 September (6–3, three members voted to raise); next decision 5 November |
| ECB deposit rate | 2.50% | Raised 10 September, effective 16 September; next decision 29 October |
| Rate gap | 125 basis points | Down from 150, so the pound’s main support has narrowed |
Exchange rates are ECB euro reference rates.
Pound to euro exchange rate in 2026: month by month
| Date (ECB fixing) | GBP/EUR (€ per £1) | EUR/GBP (£ per €1) |
|---|---|---|
| 2 January 2026 | 1.1469 | 0.8719 |
| 30 January 2026 | 1.1545 | 0.8662 |
| 27 February 2026 (year low) | 1.1412 | 0.8763 |
| 31 March 2026 | 1.1516 | 0.8684 |
| 30 April 2026 | 1.1544 | 0.8662 |
| 29 May 2026 | 1.1531 | 0.8672 |
| 30 June 2026 | 1.1604 | 0.8618 |
| 16 July 2026 (year high) | 1.1782 | 0.8488 |
| 31 July 2026 | 1.1686 | 0.8557 |
| 31 August 2026 | 1.1676 | 0.8565 |
| 25 September 2026 | 1.1622 | 0.8605 |
The pound has spent all of 2026 between 1.14 and 1.18 against the euro, a range of about 3%. Over the year it has gained 1.3% against the euro, while losing 1.4% against the dollar.
Why has the pound slipped from its July high against the euro?
The ECB started raising rates again. On 10 September the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, its second rise this year after June. Euro area inflation rose to 3.2% in August from 2.9% in July, with energy contributing 1.29 percentage points.
New ECB staff projections put euro area inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, is projected to rise from 2.5% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027. The ECB said it is not pre-committing to a rate path, which leaves a further rise in October or December open.
This reverses the view on this page in July, when euro area inflation had fallen to 2.8% and the ECB looked finished. We expected the 150-basis-point gap to hold; renewed energy price pressure over the summer brought the ECB back instead. A forecast built on one month’s data rarely survives the next.
What does the Bank of England’s September decision mean for GBP/EUR?
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September in a 6–3 vote, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann and Huw Pill voting for a rise to 4%. UK CPI inflation was 3.1% in August, and the Bank expects it to reach slightly above 4% in early 2027.
Four of the six members who voted to hold said the case for a rise could build. Clare Lombardelli, for example, said “the case for raising Bank Rate is building the longer the conflict continues without lasting resolution”. That makes 5 November a live meeting.
A Bank of England rise to 4% would restore the gap to 150 basis points and would likely lift GBP/EUR. Another hold after an October ECB rise would narrow it to 100 and weigh on the pound. Our Bank of England interest rate decision page covers the vote in detail.
What is the GBP/EUR forecast for the next 6 months?
These are Cambridge Currencies’ ranges as at 25 September 2026. They are not guarantees and rates may move either way. This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and around each ECB and Bank of England decision.
For GBP/EUR to push back toward 1.18, the Bank of England would need to raise rates on 5 November or signal clearly that it will in December, restoring sterling’s yield advantage. A fall in energy prices that pulls euro area inflation down would also take pressure off the ECB.
For GBP/EUR to fall toward 1.14, the ECB would need to raise again in October or December while the Bank of England keeps holding, narrowing the gap toward 100 basis points. UK fiscal risk is the other downside factor to watch. For the euro side of the pair see our euro forecast; for sterling against the dollar see the GBP to USD forecast.
What is the euro to pound forecast?
The euro to pound forecast (EUR/GBP) is the same forecast turned round: 0.85–0.88 to the end of 2026 and 0.84–0.89 to March 2027. EUR/GBP was 0.8605 on 25 September, so one euro bought about 86p. A stronger euro means each euro buys more pounds, which suits anyone bringing euros home. You can check the live EUR to GBP rate.
What is the long-term pound to euro forecast?
Beyond March 2027, the pound to euro prediction depends on which central bank stops raising rates first. For 2027 as a whole we expect GBP/EUR between 1.12 and 1.20, a slightly wider range than the six-month view to reflect the longer horizon.
The pound’s case rests on UK inflation, which the Bank of England expects to exceed 4% in early 2027, keeping Bank Rate high. The euro’s case rests on the ECB’s projection that core inflation rises in 2027, which could bring further ECB rises. Neither is clearly stronger today. For planning, a range is safer than a point forecast.
Is it a good time to buy euros with pounds?
At 1.1622, GBP/EUR is below its July high but still in the upper half of its 2026 range. Euro buyers have lost some ground since the summer; euro sellers have gained it.
| Amount | Cost at 1.1782 (July high) | Cost at 1.1622 (25 September) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| €100,000 supplier invoice | £84,875 | £86,044 | £1,169 more |
| €400,000 property purchase | £339,501 | £344,175 | £4,674 more |
| €1,000,000 completion | £848,752 | £860,437 | £11,685 more |
If you are selling euros, for example bringing euro area property or business sale proceeds back to sterling, the move has gone your way. €300,000 converts to about £258,131 at 1.1622, against £254,626 at the July high: roughly £3,500 more on a single transfer.
The scale is the point. A 2% move on a €500,000 purchase is around £8,600, far more than the difference between most providers’ rates, and entirely down to timing.
When are the next ECB and Bank of England decisions?
| Date | Event | Why it matters for GBP/EUR |
|---|---|---|
| 29 October 2026 | ECB decision | A further rise would narrow the gap to 100 basis points |
| 5 November 2026 | Bank of England decision + Monetary Policy Report | A rise to 4% would restore the gap; new inflation forecasts |
| 17 December 2026 | ECB and Bank of England both decide | Two decisions on one day, which concentrates risk for year-end payments |
If you have a euro payment falling due near any of these dates, there are three common ways to manage the risk:
- Forward contract fixes a rate for a payment up to twelve months ahead. With UK rates above euro rates, a GBP/EUR forward is typically slightly below spot; our explainer on why the forward rate differs from spot shows why.
- Rate alert lets you set a target level, and a specialist contacts you if the market reaches it. It suits anyone with time and no fixed deadline.
- Splitting the transfer converts in tranches either side of a decision, which averages your rate rather than staking the whole amount on one day.
Frequently asked questions
What is the pound to euro forecast for the next 6 months?
GBP/EUR is forecast to trade between 1.14 and 1.18 to the end of 2026 and 1.13–1.19 to March 2027. It fixed at 1.1622 on 25 September. The pound’s support is the gap between Bank Rate at 3.75% and the ECB deposit rate at 2.50%, which has narrowed to 125 basis points.
What is the pound to euro prediction for 2027?
We expect GBP/EUR between 1.12 and 1.20 across 2027. The direction depends on whether the Bank of England or the ECB raises rates next.
Why has the pound weakened against the euro?
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September as euro area inflation climbed to 3.2% in August, narrowing sterling’s interest rate advantage. The Bank of England held at 3.75% on 17 September.
Will the pound get stronger against the euro?
It could if the Bank of England raises rates on 5 November, which three MPC members already support and four others have said could become appropriate. It could weaken if the ECB raises again on 29 October while the Bank of England holds. The rate gap between the two is the main driver.
Is the pound strong against the euro?
Relatively, yes. At 1.1622 on 25 September, GBP/EUR sat in the upper half of its 2026 range of 1.1412 to 1.1782, and 1.3% higher than at the start of the year.
Should I buy euros now or wait?
Waiting means taking a view on the ECB decision on 29 October and the Bank of England on 5 November, either of which could move the rate by a cent or more. If you have a fixed deadline, a forward contract fixes a rate now. If you have time, a rate alert lets you target a level. This is general guidance, not a personal recommendation.
What is the GBP to EUR rate today?
The ECB reference rate for GBP/EUR was 1.1622 on 25 September 2026, equivalent to EUR/GBP of 0.8605. Live mid-market rates update through each business day on our GBP to EUR converter.
Speak to a specialist about your euro transfer
On a property purchase or a year of supplier payments, the rate you achieve makes a real financial difference. Every Cambridge Currencies transfer is completed by phone with a dedicated specialist who watches the market around each ECB and Bank of England decision.
We support UK businesses paying euro suppliers and individuals completing property purchases across Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Greece. We work with FCA-authorised payment partners, Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951), with client funds safeguarded at a credit institution in line with UK safeguarding rules. Speak to a specialist about your euro payment, or see the wider picture in our currency forecasts hub. This article is general guidance to help you make your own informed decision, not a personal recommendation.
