The Bank of England base rate is 3.75%, held on 18 June 2026 in a 7–2 vote, with Megan Greene and Huw Pill voting for a hike to 4.00%. UK CPI held at 2.8% in May, but services inflation rose to 3.7%, keeping the MPC cautious. The next Bank of England interest rate decision is 30 July 2026, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. BoE decisions are a major driver of GBP — see the GBP forecast 2026.
When Is the Next Bank of England Interest Rate Decision?
The next Bank of England interest rate decision is on Thursday 30 July 2026.
The MPC sets BoE interest rates eight times per year. The next BoE meeting decision is announced at 12:00 UK time on 30 July 2026, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report and the minutes of the meeting.
Bank of England base rate meeting dates 2026:
- 5 February 2026 — held at 3.75% (5-4 vote)
- 19 March 2026 — held at 3.75% (unanimous)
- 30 April 2026 — held at 3.75% (8-1 vote, Pill dissented for hike)
- 18 June 2026 — 18 June 2026 — held at 3.75% (7-2 vote, Greene and Pill dissented for hike)
- 30 July 2026 — next decision (Monetary Policy Report)
- 17 September 2026
- 5 November 2026 (Monetary Policy Report)
- 17 December 2026
What Will the BoE Decide on 30 July?
The 18 June 7–2 vote — one more hawkish dissent than April’s 8–1 — has set the tone going into 30 July. The US–Iran ceasefire has pulled energy prices down from their June spike, easing the near-term inflation picture, but services inflation at 3.7% keeps a hike on the table. The market debate has shifted to when the Bank resumes cutting, not whether it hikes again. Key considerations for the MPC:
- June vote split: 7–2, with Megan Greene and Huw Pill dissenting for a 4.00% hike — the hawkish minority doubled from April
- MPC tone: A “wait and see” hold — the majority judged it could wait for more evidence on how the energy shock feeds through
- UK May CPI: held at 2.8% (down from a 3.3% March peak), but services inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.2% — the figure the MPC watches most closely
- Energy: Brent fell back from its June spike above $110/bbl after the US–Iran ceasefire, easing imported-inflation pressure
- Labour market: Unemployment edged up to 4.9%, pointing to a loosening that could contain wage pressure
- Market pricing: As of 17 June, traders priced roughly one hike in 2026; a Reuters poll of economists put 2026 forecasts in a 3.50%–4.25% range
Anthony Bull, CEO of Cambridge Currencies, comments: “The 8-1 vote on 30 April was firmer than markets expected. The MPC moving to actively flag second-round effects, and the Chief Economist breaking ranks to vote for a hike, both point to 18 June being a genuinely live meeting for either a hold or an actual rate rise — not a return to cuts. For clients with large GBP transfers in May or early June, that’s a meaningful event risk to plan around, and forward contracts at today’s levels remove it entirely.”
Key Drivers Behind UK Interest Rates
- Inflation: May CPI held at 2.8% — above the 2% target; services inflation rose to 3.7%, the MPC’s key concern
- Energy prices: Brent fell back from a June spike above $110/bbl after the US–Iran ceasefire, easing the inflation outlook
- Wages: Services inflation and 2027 pay settlements remain the main upside risk the MPC is monitoring
- Economic growth: Unemployment edged up to 4.9%, signalling a loosening labour market
- Global central banks: the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June; the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% on 17 June at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair. See the USD forecast and GBP/EUR forecast
Short-Term Rate Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)
Base case for 30 July: Hold at 3.75% with a hawkish tilt while services inflation stays elevated, and a realistic chance of further dissents for a hike. The 30 July meeting carries a new Monetary Policy Report, making it a natural date to signal any change of direction. Economists’ 2026 forecasts span roughly 3.50% to 4.25%. For UK interest rate forecast purposes, market pricing is the most reliable single guide.
| 30 July scenario | Probability | GBP impact |
|---|---|---|
| Hold at 3.75% (hawkish tone, further dissents) | ~55% | Modestly GBP-positive — GBP/EUR could firm toward 1.16 |
| Hold at 3.75% (neutral tone) | ~25% | Neutral |
| Hike to 4.00% | ~15% | Strongly GBP-positive — GBP/EUR could test 1.16+ |
| Hold at 3.75% (dovish signal on future cuts) | ~5% | GBP-negative — GBP/EUR could slip toward 1.13 |
Probabilities reflect Cambridge Currencies’ assessment of market pricing and the post-18 June vote pattern; they are not Bank of England forecasts. See the GBP/USD forecast and GBP/EUR forecast.
Medium to Long-Term Outlook (3–12 Months)
- Base case: BoE holds at 3.75% through summer with a hawkish bias; one rate rise to 4.00% possible at the 30 July or 17 September meeting if services inflation stays sticky
- GBP-supportive scenario: Inflation proves stickier than the base scenario; one or two hikes in H2 2026, rates at 4.00–4.25% into 2027
- GBP-negative scenario: Middle East de-escalates, oil falls below $80/bbl, BoE resumes cutting late 2026 or early 2027
What This Means for GBP and Currency Transfers
The 30 July BoE decision is the next major sterling event after June’s central-bank cluster (ECB 11 June, Fed 17 June, BoE 18 June). The tone of the MPC statement and the vote split are likely to matter more than the rate decision itself: a hawkish hold with multiple dissents could push GBP higher, while a dovish signal could see sterling drift lower.
- Buying property abroad: Stronger GBP from a hawkish BoE improves overseas purchasing power. See our property buyers hub, buying property in Spain, and moving to Spain from the UK.
- Businesses: Rate shifts create FX volatility. See our guide to how exchange rates affect UK business.
- Expats and large transfers: Small rate-driven FX moves create significant cost differences on large amounts. See our guide on transferring large amounts internationally.
Managing Currency Risk Around the 18 June Decision
Currency markets often move before announcements, not just after — waiting for the decision can mean you’ve already missed the move. With a new Monetary Policy Report landing alongside the 30 July decision, the tone could shift sterling sharply in either direction. Practical strategies:
- Use a forward contract to lock in today’s rate ahead of 30 July if current levels work for your budget
- Split large transfers across dates before and after the 30 July meeting to average your rate
- Set a limit order to execute automatically if the rate improves post-decision
- Check our guide on whether now is a good time to exchange money
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next Bank of England rate decision?
30 July 2026 at 12:00 UK time, alongside a new Monetary Policy Report. The remaining 2026 dates are 17 September, 5 November and 17 December.
What is the current UK interest rate?
3.75%, held at the 18 June 2026 MPC meeting in a 7–2 vote, with Megan Greene and Huw Pill dissenting in favour of a hike to 4.00%. See the GBP forecast 2026.
Will UK interest rates rise in 2026?
After the 18 June 7–2 vote, economists’ 2026 forecasts span roughly 3.50% to 4.25%, with a Reuters poll showing most expect a hold for the rest of the year and nearly 40% pricing at least one hike. With services inflation at 3.7%, a rise to 4.00% at a later meeting remains possible rather than the base case. See the weekly currency forecast.
Should I wait for the BoE decision before transferring money?
Markets typically price decisions in advance, so waiting often means you’ve already missed the move. The 30 July BoE decision brings a new Monetary Policy Report that could move sterling either way. A forward contract locks in today’s rate and removes the need to time the market.
