The pound is trading around $1.32 and €1.159 in late June 2026. Sterling has slipped to a seven-month low against a firm US dollar and is being driven primarily by UK political uncertainty after the Prime Minister’s resignation in June, even as the Bank of England’s relatively high Bank Rate keeps it firm against the euro. Use the live GBP to USD converter and GBP to EUR converter for the latest rates, and the weekly currency forecast for the current market view.
GBP forecast — key takeaways
- GBP/USD: ~1.32 — near a seven-month low on dollar strength. See GBP/USD forecast
- GBP/EUR: ~1.159 — holding near the top of its 2026 range. See GBP/EUR forecast
- UK CPI: 2.8% (May 2026), with services inflation still sticky around 3.7%
- BoE rate: 3.75% — held on 18 June (7–2, two members wanted a hike). See BoE rate tracker
- ECB rate: 2.25% — hiked 25bp on 11 June, its first rise since 2023
- Fed rate: 3.50–3.75% — held 17 June with a hawkish tilt; next decision 28–29 July
- Biggest near-term catalyst: UK politics and the path to the next BoE decision on 30 July
What’s moving the pound right now?
UK political uncertainty is the dominant driver
The resignation of the Prime Minister in June 2026, following a by-election defeat, has put UK political and fiscal risk at the centre of sterling’s story. Markets dislike uncertainty over the direction of fiscal policy, and the pound has softened against the dollar as a result. As Anthony Bull, CEO of Cambridge Currencies, notes, political risk premia can move sterling more sharply than data in the near term, which is exactly the kind of two-way risk a forward contract is designed to remove.
Bank of England — a hawkish hold
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June 2026 in a 7–2 vote, the fourth consecutive hold, with two members favouring a hike to 4%. UK CPI was 2.8% in May and services inflation remained sticky near 3.7%, so markets now price the next move as more likely a hike than a cut. The next decision is on 30 July. See our Bank of England rate decision tracker.
A weakening growth picture
The complication for sterling is growth. The UK’s June flash composite PMI fell to 49.4 — a 14-month low and below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Sticky services inflation alongside contracting activity raises the uncomfortable prospect of stagflation, which limits how far a hawkish BoE can support the pound.
A firm dollar and a hawkish Fed
The Federal Reserve held at 3.50–3.75% on 17 June and turned hawkish, removing its easing bias. The US Dollar Index has pushed above 100, and most of the pound’s recent weakness reflects dollar strength rather than sterling-specific selling against other currencies.
The ECB has started hiking
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June, its first hike since 2023, as the West Asia energy shock lifted eurozone inflation to 3.2%. Even so, the BoE–ECB gap remains around 150 basis points in sterling’s favour, which is why GBP/EUR has held up far better than GBP/USD.
GBP/USD forecast — pound to dollar outlook
GBP/USD is around 1.32 in late June, near a seven-month low after falling from its January high of 1.3817. Forecasters are split: JPMorgan is bearish, seeing the pair toward 1.31 by September and 1.28 by December on UK political risk and a firm dollar, while Goldman Sachs (1.36) and Scotiabank (1.37) are more constructive. A realistic 2026 range is roughly 1.30–1.40. Check the live GBP to USD converter and our GBP/USD forecast. If you need to buy dollars, see our guide on paying USD invoices from the UK.
GBP/EUR forecast — pound to euro outlook
GBP/EUR is around 1.159 in late June, holding near the top of its 2026 range despite the ECB’s June hike, supported by the 150bp BoE–ECB rate differential. A realistic range for the rest of 2026 is roughly 1.14–1.17, with UK political risk the main cap and the rate gap the main support. Check the live GBP to EUR rate and our detailed GBP/EUR forecast for 2026.
GBP forecast scenarios
| Supporting GBP | Pressuring GBP |
|---|---|
| A stable, market-friendly political transition | Prolonged political or fiscal uncertainty |
| BoE signals a hike as inflation stays sticky | Growth deteriorates and the BoE turns dovish |
| The Fed softens and the dollar eases | The Fed stays hawkish and the dollar firms further |
| UK growth data stabilises above 50 on the PMI | Stagflation fears build as the PMI contracts |
| The BoE–ECB rate gap stays wide | The ECB keeps hiking and the gap narrows |
What this means for your currency transfer
Buying property abroad
GBP/EUR near 1.159 is firm by recent standards, while GBP/USD near 1.32 is well off its January high. With UK politics creating genuine two-way risk, locking in via a forward contract removes event risk from your budget. See our guides on buying property in Spain, moving to Spain from the UK, and transferring large amounts internationally.
Business payments
GBP/USD has swung across a wide range in 2026. A forward contract locks in today’s rate for up to 12 months, taking currency risk off your cost base. See our guide to how exchange rates affect UK business.
Transfer strategy
Forward contract — if today’s rate works for your budget, you can lock it in ahead of UK political headlines and the 30 July BoE decision. Limit order — if you’re targeting a higher rate, a rate alert notifies you when it’s hit. Split your transfer — for large sums, converting in stages averages your rate across the risk window. Using a specialist rather than your bank typically secures a rate more competitive than a high-street bank — see our exchange rate comparison tool. Client funds are safeguarded by our FCA-authorised partners at a credit institution, in line with UK safeguarding rules.
Pound forecast FAQs
Will the pound go up in 2026?
The pound’s near-term path hinges mainly on UK political developments and whether the Bank of England’s sticky-inflation concern outweighs weakening growth. The BoE’s relatively high rate is a structural support, particularly against the euro, but political uncertainty is the dominant swing factor. See the weekly currency forecast for the latest view.
What is the pound to dollar forecast for 2026?
GBP/USD is around 1.32 in late June, within a realistic 2026 range of roughly 1.30–1.40. JPMorgan is bearish (toward 1.28 by year-end) while Goldman Sachs and Scotiabank are more constructive (1.36–1.37). Check our GBP/USD forecast.
What is the pound to euro forecast for 2026?
GBP/EUR is around 1.159, holding near the top of its 2026 range on the wide BoE–ECB rate gap. A realistic range is roughly 1.14–1.17, with UK politics the main cap. See our pound to euro forecast.
Is now a good time to transfer money abroad?
Levels are mixed — firm against the euro, weaker against the dollar — and UK political risk introduces real two-way uncertainty. A forward contract removes that risk by fixing your rate. See our guide on whether now is a good time to exchange money.
Should I use a forward contract?
A forward contract locks in today’s rate for up to 12 months, which can be valuable when political headlines and central-bank decisions create event risk. Whether it suits you depends on your timing and budget certainty — a specialist can talk you through the trade-offs.
Cambridge Currencies provides GBP transfer support for individuals and businesses. Check the live GBP/USD rate or GBP/EUR rate, use our currency converter, or request a free quote. We work with FCA-authorised payment partners — Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951) — with client funds safeguarded by our FCA-authorised partners at a credit institution, in line with UK safeguarding rules. All transfers are completed by phone with a dedicated specialist. This article is general guidance to help you make your own informed decision, not a personal recommendation.
