The pound to euro forecast for the rest of 2026 is a 1.13–1.17 range, with a modest drift lower as the European Central Bank raises rates while the Bank of England holds. As I write at the end of May 2026, the GBP/EUR exchange rate is around 1.153 (about €1.153 to the pound, or EUR/GBP near 0.867) — close to where it has sat all year. The pound has been unusually steady against the euro, but the wide interest-rate gap holding it up is about to start closing.
The dominant near-term drivers are two central bank meetings a week apart: the ECB on 11 June, where a rate hike is now priced at roughly 90%, and the Bank of England on 18 June, where a hold is expected. If you’re paying euro invoices from the UK, completing a property purchase in the eurozone, or bringing sale proceeds back to sterling, this guide explains where GBP/EUR is heading and what your practical options are. You can check the live GBP to EUR rate or request a quote to talk it through.
What’s the pound doing against the euro right now?
GBP/EUR has spent the whole of 2026 inside a tight band, roughly 1.14 to 1.16. It set its high for the year at 1.1597 on 19 March and its low at 1.1402 on 1 March, and the year-to-date average is around 1.15. By the standards of recent years, that is a remarkably calm range.
The reason is the interest-rate gap. The Bank of England’s Bank Rate is 3.75%, a full 175 basis points above the ECB’s 2.00% deposit rate — one of the widest gaps in the G10. That yield advantage has given sterling an underlying floor against the euro, and as long as it holds, GBP/EUR has struggled to fall far below 1.14.
What has changed is the outlook for that gap. For most of the year the market assumed it would stay put. Now it expects the ECB to start closing it — and that is the single most important shift for anyone holding pounds and needing euros.
Will the ECB hike push the pound lower against the euro?
Two things have moved in opposite directions. Eurozone inflation has climbed to 3.0% in April, with the ECB — which held at 2.00% on 30 April — now expected to raise its deposit rate by 25bp on 11 June — money markets price that at around 90%, with more hikes pencilled in for later in the year. UK inflation, by contrast, eased to 2.8% in April, down from 3.3% in March, which takes some of the pressure off the Bank of England.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 April in an 8–1 vote, with one member preferring a hike to 4%. It expects UK inflation to rise again later in the year as energy costs feed through, but Governor Bailey has signalled the Bank is in “no hurry” to move in either direction. With the ECB tightening and the BoE holding, the 175bp gap narrows to 150bp — and a smaller yield advantage means slightly less support for the pound.
There’s a twist worth understanding. The energy shock that drove all of this has faded fast: Brent crude has fallen to around $92 a barrel, down roughly 19% in May, as the US and Iran moved toward a ceasefire. Lower oil eases the inflation pressure on both central banks — but the ECB has already signalled it will not look through the inflation that has landed, so its June hike remains priced even as oil drops.
In my view, the upshot is a gentle, not dramatic, easing in the pound against the euro. The rate gap narrowing by 25bp is meaningful at the margin, but it doesn’t undo sterling’s structural advantage overnight. That’s why I expect a drift toward the lower part of the range rather than a sharp fall.
My GBP/EUR exchange rate forecast for the next six months
My honest view is that GBP/EUR stays range-bound with a modest downward bias — firm enough that sterling doesn’t collapse, soft enough that the euro gains a little as the gap narrows. The consensus among the banks is similar: GBP/EUR holding above 1.15 and drifting gently lower, with no one calling for a break above 1.18 or a fall below 1.10. Here are the ranges I’m working to, shown both ways round.
These ranges are wider than the calm year so far would suggest, and that’s deliberate. With a live ECB hike on 11 June and a fresh set of ECB projections that day, intraday swings of a cent or more are realistic around the decision. Over a longer horizon, GBP/EUR has averaged roughly 1.1575 over the past five years, so today’s 1.153 sits close to its multi-year norm rather than at an extreme. For the euro’s side of the story — and the EUR/USD picture that sits behind it — see my euro forecast 2026.
Is it a good time to buy euros with pounds?
A useful way to judge it is to look at where the rate sits against its own recent history. GBP/EUR near 1.153 is in the middle of its year-long band — not at an extreme, which usually means the event in front of you matters more than the level itself.
If you’re buying euros — paying a eurozone supplier, funding a property purchase — a weaker pound costs you more. With the rate gap set to narrow, the modest risk is that the pound drifts lower over the coming months, so a meaningful euro requirement carries timing risk in your direction. To put numbers on it, a €100,000 invoice at 1.155 costs about £86,580; the same invoice at 1.13 costs about £88,496 — a difference of roughly £1,900 on one payment, and far more across a year of recurring transfers.
If you’re selling euros — bringing eurozone sale proceeds or income back to sterling — the same drift works in your favour, as each euro would convert into slightly more pounds. On a €400,000 property sale, a move from 1.155 to 1.13 is worth roughly £7,000 in your pocket.
This is where the tools matter. A forward contract lets you fix today’s rate for a payment up to twelve months ahead at no extra cost — particularly useful if you have an invoice or completion due around the June central bank meetings and simply want certainty. A rate alert lets you set a target level and be notified if the market reaches it, and splitting a larger amount into tranches averages out your timing rather than committing it all on one day.
If you pay euro invoices regularly, our guide on paying euro bills from the UK covers the methods and costs in more detail, and you can set a target with our exchange rate alerts.
A note from experience
The most expensive mistake I see isn’t picking the wrong moment — it’s leaving a large euro exposure open across a central bank decision in the hope of a slightly better rate. Around an ECB meeting, moves of a cent or two within hours are not unusual, and on a property purchase that can swing the cost by thousands of pounds.
A recent example from our desk: a UK business with a €250,000 supplier payment due the week after the June ECB meeting was worried a hike would push GBP/EUR lower and raise their cost. Rather than gamble on the outcome, they fixed the rate with a forward contract, removed the uncertainty, and budgeted with certainty. In my experience with property buyers across Spain, France and Italy, that’s usually the right instinct — secure a sensible rate and get on with the transaction, rather than trying to call the exact top.
Frequently asked questions
What is the pound to euro forecast for 2026?
GBP/EUR is forecast to trade in a 1.13–1.17 range over the rest of 2026, with a modest downward bias as the ECB-BoE rate gap narrows. The pound is supported by the Bank of England’s 3.75% rate against the ECB’s 2.00%, but an ECB hike on 11 June would close part of that gap. No major forecaster expects GBP/EUR to break above 1.18 or fall below 1.10 this year.
Will the pound get stronger against the euro in 2026?
Modest sterling strength is possible but it isn’t the base case. The pound is supported by the UK’s higher interest rate, but with the ECB expected to hike on 11 June while the Bank of England holds, the rate gap narrows and the euro should firm slightly. The more likely path is GBP/EUR drifting toward the 1.13–1.15 area rather than strengthening back toward its March high of 1.1597.
Should I buy euros now or wait?
That depends on your deadline and your tolerance for risk, and it isn’t a decision to make on the rate alone. With a live ECB decision on 11 June, intraday moves of a cent or more are possible. If you have a fixed deadline — a property completion or a supplier invoice — a forward contract lets you fix today’s rate and remove the uncertainty. If you have time and flexibility, a rate alert lets you target a better level without watching the screen daily.
When is the next Bank of England and ECB rate decision?
The ECB decides on Thursday 11 June 2026, with markets pricing a 25bp hike to 2.25% at roughly 90%, alongside fresh staff projections. The Bank of England follows a week later on Thursday 18 June 2026, where a hold at 3.75% is expected. That two-meeting window is the dominant near-term driver of GBP/EUR. See our Bank of England rate decision guide for more.
What is the GBP to EUR rate today?
GBP/EUR is trading at approximately 1.153 at the end of May 2026 (around €1.153 to the pound, or EUR/GBP near 0.867). The 2026 range so far has been 1.1402 (low, 1 March) to 1.1597 (high, 19 March), with a year-to-date average near 1.15. Live mid-market rates update throughout each business day on our GBP to EUR converter.
How Cambridge Currencies can help
Getting a good or bad GBP/EUR rate makes a real financial difference, especially on a property purchase or a year of supplier payments, yet for most people foreign exchange isn’t something they handle often. We work differently from the apps and online-only platforms: every transfer is handled by phone with a dedicated specialist — a dealer, not an app — who watches the market on your behalf and flags favourable moves, including around scheduled ECB and BoE decisions.
We support UK businesses paying euro suppliers and individuals completing property purchases across Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Greece, often at rates more competitive than a high-street bank on large or recurring payments. We work with FCA-authorised payment partners (Currencycloud, FRN 900199, and ScioPay, FRN 927951), and client funds are held in safeguarded accounts. You can follow every ECB and BoE meeting in our weekly currency forecast, or see the wider picture in our currency forecasts hub. None of the above is financial advice — it’s guidance to help you make your own informed decision.
