Is the euro going up or down?
Down, against almost every major currency. Since late September the euro has lost ground to the dollar, pound, yen, franc, Australian dollar and yuan. All figures are ECB euro reference rates.
| 1 euro buys | 2 Jan 2026 | 25 Sep 2026 | 5 Nov 2026 | Euro in 2026 | Euro since 25 Sep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 1.1721 | 1.1403 | 1.1224 | −4.2% | −1.6% |
| British pound | 0.8719 | 0.8605 | 0.8339 | −4.4% | −3.1% |
| Japanese yen | 183.94 | 179.70 | 177.85 | −3.3% | −1.0% |
| Swiss franc | 0.9296 | 0.9445 | 0.9180 | −1.2% | −2.8% |
| Australian dollar | 1.7508 | 1.6220 | 1.6033 | −8.4% | −1.2% |
| Chinese yuan | 8.1973 | 7.6551 | 7.4846 | −8.7% | −2.2% |
| Turkish lira | 50.4332 | 55.7975 | 56.1729 | +11.4% | +0.7% |
The euro is now lower in 2026 against every major currency in the table, including the Swiss franc, which it had been gaining against until September. Its steepest fall since late September has been against the pound, down 3.1%, as the Bank of England raised rates while the ECB held. Only against high-inflation currencies such as the lira is it still rising.
Why has the euro started falling again?
Because an energy shock has lifted euro area inflation while threatening growth, and the ECB has chosen to wait. Inflation rose to 4.0% in October from 3.8%, with energy up 20.8%, while core inflation held at 2.5%, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate. On 29 October the ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50%, warning that energy prices pose “upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook”.
Others moved instead. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November, and the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% with two members voting for a rise. Strong US payrolls of 165,000 in October added to the dollar’s case.
| Rate gap against the euro | After September | Now (8 November 2026) | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England (4.00%) | 125 basis points | 150 basis points | Bank of England raised on 5 November; ECB held on 29 October |
| Federal Reserve (3.75–4.00%, midpoint 3.875%) | 137.5 basis points | 137.5 basis points | Both held in late October, but two Fed members voted for a rise |
Our explainer on how interest rates affect exchange rates covers the mechanism in more detail.
Euro forecast for the next six months
| Pair | 5 Nov 2026 | To end December 2026 | To end March 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1224 | 1.09–1.15 | 1.07–1.16 |
| EUR/GBP | 0.8339 | 0.82–0.85 | 0.81–0.86 |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1991 | 1.18–1.22 | 1.16–1.23 |
Cambridge Currencies’ forecast ranges as at 8 November 2026, anchored on the 5 November ECB fixings. They are not guarantees, and rates may move outside them. This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and after each ECB decision.
Our previous one-to-three-month EUR/USD range of 1.12–1.17 has been broken: the pair fixed at 1.1165 on 6 November. The new range to the end of December is 1.09–1.15.
Against the dollar, the Fed’s projections put the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027, implying one more rise and no cuts, and October’s jobs data could make a December rise more likely. The full reasoning is in our euro to dollar forecast.
Against the pound, the Bank of England’s 8–1 vote to raise Bank Rate to 4%, with Catherine Mann voting for 4.25%, widened the gap to 150 basis points in sterling’s favour. The Bank expects UK inflation near 5% by mid-2027. Our pound to euro forecast covers the sterling side.
What would make the euro go up?
- An ECB rise on 17 December to lean against 4% inflation, while the Fed and Bank of England hold.
- Energy prices falling back, easing the growth squeeze on the euro area and reducing the case for further UK rises.
- A US slowdown sharp enough to bring Fed rate cuts back into view, against the Fed’s own projections.
What would make the euro go down?
- The ECB staying on hold as growth weakens, even with headline inflation at 4%.
- The Fed raising on 9 December, which would widen the dollar’s rate advantage.
- A second Bank of England rise on 17 December or in February, which several MPC members see a near-term case for.
- Energy inflation spreading into wages and services without the ECB responding.
Will the euro fall in the coming days?
Day-to-day moves in the euro are usually small. Across the 74 trading days from 15 June to 25 September 2026, EUR/USD moved by an average of 0.22% a day on ECB reference rates, and only six days saw a move larger than 0.5%. The 0.53% fall between the 5 and 6 November fixings was one of the larger recent moves.
Large moves cluster around data releases and central bank decisions, so these are the dates to watch:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 10 November 2026 | US CPI (October) |
| 18 November 2026 | Full euro area HICP (October); UK CPI (October) |
| 1 December 2026 | Euro area flash HICP (November) |
| 8–9 December 2026 | Federal Reserve decision and projections |
| 17 December 2026 | ECB and Bank of England decisions |
| 4 February 2027 | Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report |
See the next Bank of England decision for the UK side.
What does the euro forecast mean for a transfer?
In an illustrative example, buying €400,000 for a property in Spain or France costs about £338,983 at a GBP/EUR rate of 1.18, £333,584 at the 5 November fixing of 1.1991 and £327,869 at 1.22. The difference across our range to December is roughly £11,100 on a single purchase.
For anyone selling euros, such as someone bringing home property sale proceeds, the euro’s fall since September has worked against you, and the same range works in reverse. Our Spain property currency guide works through a full purchase, and you can check the live EUR to GBP rate.
How can you manage euro exchange rate risk?
- Forward contract fixes a rate for a payment up to 12 months ahead. It suits anyone with a completion date who cannot absorb a swing.
- Rate alert lets a specialist contact you when the market reaches your target level. It suits anyone with time and no fixed deadline.
- Splitting the transfer converts in tranches, which averages your rate and avoids having everything exposed on 17 December, when the ECB and Bank of England both decide.
Frequently asked questions
Is the euro going up or down in 2026?
Down against the major currencies. By 5 November the euro was 4.2% lower against the dollar, 4.4% lower against the pound and 1.2% lower against the Swiss franc than on 2 January 2026, though 11.4% higher against the Turkish lira.
Will the euro get stronger?
It may if the ECB raises rates on 17 December while the Fed and Bank of England hold, or if energy prices fall back. Our forecast range allows EUR/USD up to 1.15 to the end of December and 1.16 to March 2027.
Will the euro fall in the coming days?
Nobody can forecast day-to-day moves reliably. EUR/USD typically moves about 0.2% a day, with bigger moves around data and central bank decisions. The next tests are US CPI on 10 November, the Fed on 9 December, and the ECB and Bank of England on 17 December.
Why did the ECB raise interest rates in September 2026?
Euro area inflation was rising, and the ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on 10 September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%. It held on 29 October even as inflation reached 4.0%, citing downside risks to growth, and says it is not pre-committing to a rate path.
When is the next ECB interest rate decision?
The ECB’s final meeting of 2026 is on 16–17 December, with the decision on 17 December, the same day as the Bank of England. It held its deposit rate at 2.50% on 29 October.
What is the euro to dollar forecast?
EUR/USD is forecast between 1.09 and 1.15 to the end of December 2026 and 1.07 to 1.16 to the end of March 2027. See the full EUR/USD forecast for the scenarios behind those ranges.
Is now a good time to buy euros?
GBP/EUR was 1.1991 on 5 November and 1.1988 on 6 November, close to the 30 October fixing of 1.1993, its highest since March 2025. Whether it improves further may depend mainly on the 17 December decisions. Our guide on whether now is a good time to buy euros covers timing strategies for euro buyers.
Speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist before the December ECB decision. If you are buying property in the euro area, paying euro suppliers or bringing euros home, request a quote and a dedicated specialist will talk through your options by phone. Every transfer is arranged by phone with that specialist, from a minimum of £5,000. We work with FCA-authorised payment partners Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951), and client funds are safeguarded.
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