Is the euro going up or down?
It depends on which currency you measure the euro against. That is the honest answer, and the table shows why. All figures are ECB euro reference rates.
| 1 euro buys | 2 Jan 2026 | 10 Jul 2026 | 25 Sep 2026 | Euro in 2026 | Euro since July |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 1.1721 | 1.1430 | 1.1403 | −2.7% | −0.2% |
| British pound | 0.8719 | 0.8516 | 0.8605 | −1.3% | +1.0% |
| Japanese yen | 183.94 | 185.02 | 179.70 | −2.3% | −2.9% |
| Swiss franc | 0.9296 | 0.9223 | 0.9445 | +1.6% | +2.4% |
| Australian dollar | 1.7508 | 1.6447 | 1.6220 | −7.4% | −1.4% |
| Chinese yuan | 8.1973 | 7.7433 | 7.6551 | −6.6% | −1.1% |
| Polish zloty | 4.2123 | 4.3475 | 4.3718 | +3.8% | +0.6% |
| Turkish lira | 50.4332 | 53.7039 | 55.7975 | +10.6% | +3.9% |
Against the major currencies the euro has been going down in 2026. Its biggest falls are against the Australian dollar and the yuan, and it is down 2.7% against the dollar. Against the Swiss franc and emerging-market currencies it has been going up.
Since July the picture has shifted. The euro has regained 1.0% against the pound and 2.4% against the franc, while losing a further 2.9% against the yen. Against the dollar it has gone nowhere, finishing within 0.2% of its July level.
Why has the euro stopped falling?
Because the ECB raised rates again. On 10 September the Governing Council decided “to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points”, taking the deposit rate to 2.50% from 16 September. It was the second rise of the year, after June.
The reason was inflation. Euro area inflation rose to 3.2% in August from 2.9% in July. ECB staff now project core inflation, which excludes energy and food, at 2.5% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027. A core forecast that rises the following year leaves the door open to further rises.
What the rise did to each rate gap explains the table above:
| Rate gap against the euro | July 2026 | Now | What changed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of England (3.75%) | 1.50 points | 1.25 points | Gap narrowed: the ECB rose, the Bank of England held on 17 September |
| Federal Reserve (3.75–4.00%) | 1.375 points | 1.375 points | Unchanged: the Fed also raised by a quarter point on 16 September |
Where the gap narrowed, against the pound, the euro recovered. Where it did not, against the dollar, the euro stood still. Our explainer on how interest rates affect exchange rates covers the mechanism in more detail.
Euro forecast for the next six months
| Pair | Latest (25 Sep 2026) | Next 1–3 months | Next 6 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1403 | 1.12–1.17 | 1.11–1.19 |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1622 | 1.14–1.18 to the end of 2026 | |
These are Cambridge Currencies’ forecast ranges, based on central bank guidance and market levels at 25 September 2026. They are not guarantees, and rates may move outside them. This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and after each ECB decision.
Against the dollar, the Fed’s own projections put the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. That means no US rate cuts to narrow the gap, and it leaves the euro range-bound. The full reasoning is in our euro to dollar forecast.
Against the pound, the gap has already narrowed to 1.25 points, but three of the Bank of England’s nine policymakers voted to raise Bank Rate to 4% in September. A UK rise would reopen the gap in sterling’s favour. Our pound to euro forecast covers the sterling side.
What would make the euro go up?
- A third ECB rise at the 28–29 October or 16–17 December meeting, while the Fed and Bank of England hold.
- Euro area core inflation tracking the ECB’s 2.6% projection for 2027, which would keep further rises on the table.
- A US slowdown sharp enough to bring Fed rate cuts back into view, against the Fed’s own projections.
What would make the euro go down?
- The ECB pausing as headline inflation eases toward the 2.5% ECB staff project for 2027.
- The Fed delivering the extra rise its projections imply, which would widen the dollar’s advantage.
- A Bank of England rise, which the three dissenting MPC members already favour.
- Weak euro area growth. ECB staff project 0.9% for 2026, against 2.3% the Fed projects for the US.
Will the euro fall in the coming days?
Day-to-day moves in the euro are usually small. Across the 74 trading days from 15 June to 25 September 2026, EUR/USD moved by an average of 0.22% a day on ECB reference rates. Only six days saw a move larger than 0.5%.
The largest single-day move was a 1.1% fall on 18 June, the day after the Fed’s June meeting. Over any five trading days the average move was 0.55%, and it exceeded 1% in about one week in six.
Large moves cluster around central bank decisions, so the dates to watch are these:
- 27–28 October: Federal Reserve
- 28–29 October: ECB
- 5 November: Bank of England, with its Monetary Policy Report. See the next Bank of England decision.
- 8–9 December: Federal Reserve
- 16–17 December: ECB
- 17 December: Bank of England
Dates are from the ECB, Federal Reserve and Bank of England calendars.
What does the euro forecast mean for a transfer?
In an illustrative example, buying €400,000 for a property in Spain or France costs about £350,877 at a GBP/EUR rate of 1.14. At 1.18 it costs about £338,983. Both rates sit inside the forecast range, and the difference is roughly £11,900 on a single purchase.
For anyone selling euros, such as someone bringing home property sale proceeds, the same range works in reverse. The next ECB meeting is the obvious point at which that exposure is most at risk. Our Spain property currency guide works through a full purchase.
How can you manage euro exchange rate risk?
- Forward contract fixes a rate for a payment up to 12 months ahead. It suits anyone with a completion date who cannot absorb a swing.
- Rate alert notifies you when the market reaches your target level. It suits anyone with time and no fixed deadline.
- Splitting the transfer converts in tranches, which averages your rate and avoids having everything exposed on the day of an ECB decision.
For a wider look at timing, see whether now is a good time to exchange money.
Frequently asked questions
Is the euro going up or down in 2026?
Down against most major currencies, and up against others. By 25 September the euro was 2.7% lower against the dollar and 1.3% lower against the pound than on 2 January 2026, but 1.6% higher against the Swiss franc and 10.6% higher against the Turkish lira.
Will the euro get stronger?
It may strengthen if the ECB raises rates again while the Fed and Bank of England hold. ECB staff project core inflation rising to 2.6% in 2027, which keeps that possible. Our forecast range allows EUR/USD up to 1.19 over six months.
Will the euro fall in the coming days?
Nobody can forecast day-to-day moves reliably. Since mid-June EUR/USD has moved by an average of 0.22% a day, with bigger moves concentrated around central bank decisions. The next are the Fed on 27–28 October and the ECB on 28–29 October.
Why did the ECB raise interest rates in September 2026?
Euro area inflation rose to 3.2% in August, and ECB staff project core inflation of 2.6% in 2027. The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points on 10 September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, and says it is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
When is the next ECB interest rate decision?
The ECB Governing Council meets on 28–29 October 2026, with the decision on 29 October. The final meeting of 2026 is on 16–17 December, and the first of 2027 is on 3–4 February.
What is the euro to dollar forecast?
EUR/USD is forecast between 1.12 and 1.17 over one to three months and 1.11 to 1.19 over six months. See the full EUR/USD forecast for the scenarios behind those ranges.
Is now a good time to buy euros?
GBP/EUR at 1.1622 on 25 September was below its July level of about 1.1743 but above the 1.1469 it started the year at. Whether it improves depends mainly on the ECB and Bank of England in October and November. This is general guidance, not a personal recommendation. A forward contract or rate alert can take the timing decision out of your hands.
Speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist before the October ECB decision. If you are buying property in the euro area, paying euro suppliers or bringing euros home, request a quote and a dedicated specialist will talk through your options by phone. Every transfer is arranged by phone with that specialist, through our FCA-authorised partners Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951).
Related guides: US dollar forecast 2026 · All currency forecasts
