EUR/USD is forecast to trade between 1.11 and 1.19 over the next six months, with a narrower 1.12–1.17 range more likely over the next three. The euro fixed at 1.1403 against the dollar on 25 September 2026, almost exactly where it stood in July, because the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have both raised rates by a quarter point and left the gap between them unchanged.
Where is the euro to dollar rate now?
The ECB reference rate for EUR/USD was 1.1403 on 25 September 2026. That is within a quarter of a percent of the 1.1430 fixing on 10 July, eleven weeks and two central bank rate rises earlier.
In between, it fell to a low of 1.1340 on 24 June, climbed to 1.1699 on 21 August, then dropped 2.4% in just over two weeks, from 1.1652 on 9 September to 1.1367 on 24 September, a slide that spanned the Fed’s rate rise on 16 September. You can check the live euro to dollar rate at any time.
Why has EUR/USD gone nowhere since July?
Because the interest rate gap that anchors it has not moved by a single basis point. Both central banks tightened in September, by the same amount, a week apart.
| 10 July 2026 | 25 September 2026 | |
|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve target range | 3.50–3.75% | 3.75–4.00% |
| ECB deposit facility rate | 2.25% | 2.50% |
| Gap (Fed midpoint minus ECB deposit rate) | 1.375 points | 1.375 points |
| EUR/USD (ECB reference rate) | 1.1430 | 1.1403 |
On 10 September the ECB Governing Council decided “to raise the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points”, taking the deposit rate to 2.50% from 16 September. On 16 September the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% by a 12–0 vote, saying the move “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal”.
The headlines moved, but the gap stayed the same. The August rally to 1.17 and the September retreat show how quickly the pair returns to where the rate gap holds it. Our explainer on how interest rates affect exchange rates sets out why that gap matters so much.
What will drive EUR/USD over the next six months?
The Fed’s projections show a plateau, not a peak
The Fed’s September projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 4.1% at the end of 2027, easing only to 3.9% in 2028. From today’s 3.875% midpoint, that implies one more quarter-point rise this year and then no cuts through 2027.
That matters for the euro. The case for a much stronger euro depends on the Fed cutting and the gap narrowing, and that case does not appear in the Fed’s own projections. Our US dollar forecast covers the dollar side in more detail.
The ECB projects core inflation rising in 2027
ECB staff project headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. The detail that stands out is core inflation, which excludes energy and food: 2.5% in 2026, rising to 2.6% in 2027, before easing to 2.3% in 2028.
A core profile that rises the year after next gives the Governing Council a reason to keep further rises on the table, and it says it is “not pre-committing to a particular rate path”. Another ECB rise while the Fed holds is the clearest route to a stronger euro.
Inflation in the two economies has converged
Euro area inflation rose to 3.2% in August from 2.9% in July, with energy contributing 1.29 percentage points. US consumer prices rose 3.4% over the 12 months to August, unchanged from July, with the core index up 2.4%.
With headline rates just 0.2 points apart, neither central bank has a clearly stronger reason to tighten than the other. That fits a pair stuck in a range.
US growth is running well ahead
The Fed projects US growth of 2.3% in 2026; ECB staff project 0.9% for the euro area. A growth gap that wide tends to support the dollar, because it makes further US tightening easier to deliver and further euro area tightening harder to justify.
When are the next dates that could move the euro to dollar rate?
- Fed, 27–28 October, and ECB, 28–29 October 2026. Back-to-back decisions within 24 hours, and the next point at which the gap could change.
- Fed, 8–9 December 2026. Comes with new projections, which will show whether the 2027 plateau still holds.
- ECB, 16–17 December 2026. Eurosystem staff projections are published at the December meeting.
- Fed, 26–27 January, and ECB, 3–4 February 2027. The first decisions of the new year.
Dates are from the Federal Reserve and ECB calendars. See our page on the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision for the latest on the Fed.
EUR/USD forecast for the next one to three months
In the view of Cambridge Currencies, EUR/USD is expected to trade between 1.12 and 1.17 over the next one to three months. The top of that range sits at the August high and the bottom a little below the June low.
A sustained break above 1.17 would probably need the ECB to signal another rise in October or December while the Fed holds. A break below 1.12 would probably need the Fed to deliver the extra rise its projections imply while the ECB pauses.
EUR/USD forecast for the rest of 2026 and into 2027
Over six to twelve months, EUR/USD may trade between 1.11 and 1.19. The direction depends on which central bank tightens next.
| Scenario | What happens | Rate gap | EUR/USD range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Euro stronger | ECB raises again as core inflation holds near 2.6%; Fed holds at 3.75–4.00% | Narrows to about 1.1 points | 1.17–1.19 |
| Central case | Both follow their projections with one more rise each | Unchanged at about 1.4 points | 1.13–1.17 |
| Dollar stronger | Fed delivers its projected rise; ECB pauses as headline inflation eases toward 2.5% | Widens to about 1.6 points | 1.11–1.13 |
Our wider euro forecast looks at the single currency against the pound as well as the dollar, and our US dollar forecast for 2027 looks further ahead.
What is the dollar to euro forecast?
The dollar to euro forecast is the same forecast turned round. At 1.1403, one US dollar buys about €0.877. A EUR/USD range of 1.11–1.19 over six months is equivalent to USD/EUR of roughly 0.84 to 0.90, and the three-month range of 1.12–1.17 is equivalent to about 0.85 to 0.89. You can convert dollars to euros at the live rate.
What does the EUR/USD forecast mean for a transfer?
In an illustrative example, €500,000 converted at 1.12 produces $560,000. At 1.18 it produces $590,000. Both rates sit inside the forecast range, and the $30,000 difference between them has nothing to do with the underlying purchase or invoice.
Sharp moves are not rare. The September fall from 1.1652 to 1.1367 changed the dollar value of €500,000 by $14,250 in just over two weeks.
If you are buying euros with dollars, a move of several cents in either direction would not be unusual. If you are selling euros for dollars, the Fed plateau removes the main reason the market once expected a stronger euro.
How can you manage EUR/USD risk in a range-bound market?
- Forward contract fixes a rate for a payment up to 12 months ahead. Because US rates are higher than euro rates, the forward EUR/USD rate sits above spot. A euro seller fixing forward receives more dollars per euro than the spot rate, and a euro buyer pays more. Our guide to why the forward rate differs from spot explains how that is calculated.
- Market order sets a target rate that executes automatically if it trades. In a range-bound pair, an order placed near the top or bottom of the range can capture a move you would otherwise miss.
- Spot transfer converts now at the live rate when the payment cannot wait.
- Splitting the transfer converts in tranches over several weeks or months. It averages your rate and removes the risk of converting everything on the worst day.
Frequently asked questions
What is the euro to dollar forecast for the next 6 months?
EUR/USD is forecast to trade between 1.11 and 1.19 over the next six months, with 1.13–1.17 the central case. The direction depends mainly on whether the ECB raises rates again while the Federal Reserve holds, or the reverse.
Will the euro rise against the dollar in 2026?
A large rise looks less likely than it did earlier in the year. The Fed’s September projections show no rate cuts through 2027, which removes the main argument for a much stronger euro. The euro could rise toward 1.17–1.19 if the ECB tightens again and the Fed holds.
Why is the euro weak against the dollar?
US interest rates are higher. The midpoint of the Fed’s 3.75–4.00% range sits 1.375 percentage points above the ECB’s 2.50% deposit rate, and capital tends to flow toward the higher yield. Until that gap narrows, the euro’s upside is likely to stay limited.
Will the ECB raise interest rates again?
The ECB says it will decide meeting by meeting and is not pre-committing to a rate path. Its staff project core inflation rising from 2.5% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027, which keeps another rise possible. The next decisions are on 29 October and 17 December 2026.
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2027?
Not on its own projections. The September median shows the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027, falling only to 3.9% in 2028. Projections can change, and the next set is due at the 8–9 December meeting.
What is the EUR/USD rate today?
The ECB reference rate was 1.1403 on 25 September 2026. Rates move constantly, so check a live EUR/USD rate before you transact.
What would push EUR/USD above 1.20?
It would probably take a clear shift in the rate gap: the ECB continuing to raise rates while the Fed turns toward cuts, most likely because of a sharp fall in US inflation or growth. Neither is in either central bank’s current projections.
How often is this forecast updated?
This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and after each ECB and Federal Reserve decision. The next review follows the 27–29 October decisions. See all our currency forecasts.
Speak to a specialist about your euro or dollar payment
If you have a euro or dollar payment coming up, such as a property completion, a supplier invoice or a business receivable, a Cambridge Currencies specialist can take you through fixing a rate, setting a target, or splitting the transfer around the October decisions.
Request a quote and every transfer is arranged by phone with your dedicated specialist. Cambridge Currencies arranges international payments through FCA-authorised partners Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951).
