The pound to dollar forecast (GBP/USD) is a 1.31–1.37 range to the end of 2026 and 1.29–1.38 to the end of March 2027. The GBP to USD rate fixed at 1.3252 on 25 September 2026, close to the bottom of its 2026 range. The Federal Reserve raised US rates to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September while the Bank of England held at 3.75% the next day, putting US rates above UK rates for the first time this year. The Bank of England’s 5 November decision is the pivotal event for the pair.
You can check the live GBP to USD rate or request a quote to talk it through with a specialist.
What is happening with the pound against the dollar right now?
The pound has fallen against the dollar since the central bank decisions. On ECB reference rates, GBP/USD dropped from 1.3565 on 9 September to 1.3220 on 24 September, a fall of 2.5%, before fixing at 1.3252 on 25 September.
That leaves the pair near the bottom of its 2026 range. The lowest ECB fixing this year was 1.3160 on 25 June, and the highest was 1.3817 on 29 January. At 1.3252, the pound is less than 1% above its low for the year.
GBP to USD exchange rate in 2026: month by month
GBP/USD has spent the whole of 2026 between 1.31 and 1.39. Between the year’s low and high, the difference on a £500,000 transfer is about $32,850 in dollars received.
What is driving GBP/USD in autumn 2026?
1. The Fed has started raising rates, and projects no cuts
The Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September 2026 in a unanimous 12–0 vote, saying inflation remains elevated. Its median projections put the funds rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027. That implies one more rise this year and no cuts next year. Follow it in our Federal Reserve interest rate decision guide.
2. The UK–US rate gap has flipped against the pound
Until September, Bank Rate at 3.75% sat at the top of the Fed’s 3.50%–3.75% range. Now the Fed’s range midpoint of 3.875% sits above Bank Rate. When the yield gap disappears or turns against a currency, holders are paid less to own it. That is why the Fed’s move matters more for GBP/USD than any single UK data release.
3. The Bank of England is edging toward a rise
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September in a 6–3 vote, with three members voting for 4%. UK CPI was 3.1% in August. The Bank expects inflation “to reach slightly above 4% in 2027 Q1”, and the Committee judges risks to be “tilted to the upside”. See our Bank of England rate decision page.
4. Energy prices remain the wildcard
Brent crude reached $106 a barrel on 14 September, according to the Bank of England’s minutes. Higher energy prices push inflation up on both sides of the Atlantic. The UK imports more of its energy, however, so a further spike tends to weigh on UK growth and sterling more than on the dollar.
What is the GBP/USD forecast for the rest of 2026?
These are Cambridge Currencies’ ranges as at 25 September 2026. They are not guarantees and rates may move either way. This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and around each Fed and Bank of England decision.
The pound is starting the final quarter near the bottom of these ranges. For sterling against the euro, see the pound to euro forecast.
What is the dollars to pounds forecast?
The dollars to pounds forecast (USD to GBP) is the same forecast turned round. At 1.3252, one dollar buys about £0.755. Our GBP/USD range of 1.31–1.37 to the end of 2026 is equivalent to USD to GBP of about 0.73 to 0.76. A weaker pound means each dollar buys more pounds, which suits anyone bringing dollars home. You can check the live USD to GBP rate.
Which dates matter for GBP/USD before the end of the year?
The Fed and the Bank of England decide eight days apart, which concentrates the risk into one fortnight. Intraday moves of 1–2% around a central bank decision are not rare; on a $500,000 purchase, a 1.5% move is worth roughly £5,600.
Is it a good time to buy dollars with pounds?
At 1.3252, the pound buys fewer dollars than it has for most of 2026. It is close to the year’s low of 1.3160 and well below the January high of 1.3817. Here is a $600,000 US property purchase across the range forecast to year-end:
From here, the range is lopsided. There is about £5,300 of further downside to the bottom of our range and about £14,800 of upside to the top. That does not mean the rate will rise, only that the pound starts the quarter near the weak end of its range. Our guidance for overseas property buyers covers the process end to end.
If you are selling dollars, for example bringing US income, dividends or sale proceeds home, the firmer dollar works in your favour, and a Fed that keeps raising rates would help further. A Bank of England rise in November is the main risk to that position. Our guide to sending money from the USA to the UK covers the process.
What does this mean for your dollar transfer?
The forward rate has also shifted with the Fed’s move. With US rates now slightly above UK rates, a GBP/USD forward sits slightly above spot for someone selling pounds, so fixing a dollar purchase months ahead now costs nothing in forward points. Our explainer on why the forward rate differs from spot shows the calculation.
The margin usually costs more than the timing. A bank typically applies a spread of 3–4% on a large personal transfer. On £450,000, that is £13,500–£18,000, comparable to the entire GBP/USD range forecast to year-end.
What is the long-term GBP/USD forecast?
For 2027 as a whole, we forecast GBP/USD between 1.28 and 1.40. The long-term direction depends on whether the Bank of England follows the Fed.
The sterling-recovery case: the Bank of England raises to 4% in November or December, the Fed stops after one more rise, and energy prices ease. GBP/USD could return toward the upper 1.30s.
The dollar-strength case: the Fed delivers the further rise its projections imply while the Bank of England waits for evidence of second-round effects. The Fed’s projections show US inflation falling to 2.3% in 2027 while rates stay at 4.1%, which would raise US real interest rates. GBP/USD could revisit the 1.28–1.30 area.
Beyond 2027, no forecast is precise enough to plan a transfer around. Our US dollar forecast for 2027 sets out the dollar side in detail.
Frequently asked questions
What is the GBP to USD forecast for the rest of 2026?
GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.31 and 1.37 to the end of 2026, and 1.31–1.36 to the end of October. It fixed at 1.3252 on 25 September. The Fed decision on 28 October and the Bank of England decision on 5 November are the main drivers.
What is the GBP to USD prediction for 2027?
We forecast GBP/USD between 1.28 and 1.40 across 2027, and between 1.29 and 1.38 to the end of March 2027. The pound’s route higher is a Bank of England rise; its route lower is further Fed tightening while the Bank holds.
What is the pound to dollar rate today?
The ECB reference rate for GBP/USD was 1.3252 on 25 September 2026, meaning £1 bought about $1.33. The 2026 range on ECB fixings has been 1.3160 to 1.3817. Live mid-market rates update through each business day on our GBP to USD converter.
Why did the pound fall against the dollar in September 2026?
The Federal Reserve raised US rates to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 September and projected one more rise this year, while the Bank of England held at 3.75% on 17 September. That put US rates above UK rates, removing the pound’s yield advantage.
Will the pound get stronger against the dollar?
It could if the Bank of England raises rates on 5 November, which three MPC members already support. It could weaken further if the Fed raises again on 28 October while the Bank of England holds. Energy prices are the wildcard for both.
Is now a good time to buy dollars?
At 1.3252, the pound is near its lowest level of 2026 against the dollar, so dollars are more expensive than for most of the year. Whether that suits you depends on your deadline and your tolerance for the risk around the 28 October and 5 November decisions. This is general guidance, not a personal recommendation.
How can I protect against GBP/USD moving against me?
A forward contract fixes an exchange rate for a payment up to twelve months ahead. A limit order executes automatically if the market reaches a target rate. Splitting a large transfer into tranches averages your timing. Which suits you depends on your deadline and circumstances.
Speak to a specialist about your dollar transfer
Every Cambridge Currencies transfer is handled by phone with a dedicated specialist who watches the market on your behalf, including around the Fed and Bank of England decisions this autumn. We support UK buyers purchasing US property, businesses paying dollar suppliers, and clients moving income between sterling and dollars.
We work with FCA-authorised payment partners, Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951), with client funds safeguarded in line with UK rules. See the wider picture in our currency forecasts hub. This article is general guidance to help you make your own informed decision, not a personal recommendation. Exchange rates can move against you as well as in your favour.
Speak to a dollar specialist about your transfer →
