GBP/USD is forecast to trade in a 1.33–1.37 range, GBP/EUR in 1.14–1.18, and EUR/USD in 1.15–1.20 over the week of 28 April – 2 May 2026. The dominant driver is a triple central bank week: the Federal Reserve decides Wednesday 29 April, with the Bank of England and European Central Bank both deciding Thursday 30 April. A one to two cent move on GBP/USD across the two days is realistic.
Quick reference — Sunday 26 April 2026
- GBP/USD: 1.3490 · GBP/EUR: 1.1534 · EUR/USD: 1.1740 · DXY: 98.51 · Brent: $105.33
- BoE Bank Rate: 3.75% · Fed funds: 3.50–3.75% · ECB deposit rate: 2.00%
- UK CPI (Mar): 3.3% · Reuters poll of 62 economists unanimously expects BoE hold on 30 April · CME FedWatch ~98% probability of Fed hold on 29 April
Three central banks, one week
This is the most concentrated central bank week of 2026 so far. Anthony Bull, CEO of Cambridge Currencies, sums it up: “Anyone with a GBP, EUR or USD payment scheduled this week is carrying meaningful event risk. We’re advising clients to either complete priority transfers before Wednesday’s Fed statement or use a forward contract to remove the question altogether.”
Federal Reserve — Wednesday 29 April, 19:00 BST
The FOMC is expected to hold at 3.50–3.75%, with CME FedWatch pricing approximately 98% probability of no change as of 24 April. Direction comes from the statement and Powell’s press conference (19:30 BST), not the rate. A statement that explicitly removes 2026 cuts because of Iran-related oil pressure would be hawkish — DXY pushing 100, GBP/USD slipping to 1.33–1.34. A balanced message keeps mild dollar weakness in play.
Bank of England — Thursday 30 April, 12:00 BST
All 62 economists in the Reuters poll of 21 April expect a hold at 3.75%, and the March MPC vote was unanimous (9–0). The interesting question is the tone of the hold. UK CPI rose to 3.3% in March with services inflation at 4.5% (up from 4.3%), and the BoE Decision Maker Panel showed UK businesses now expect 4% inflation in the year ahead. Markets are pricing two BoE hikes by year-end as a separate question. A hawkish hold — emphasising services inflation persistence — pushes GBP/EUR toward 1.16–1.17 and supports GBP/USD into 1.36–1.37. A dovish hold that reopens the door to cuts tests support around 1.34 and 1.14.
European Central Bank — Thursday 30 April, 13:15 BST
Markets price ~74% probability of an ECB hold at 2.00%, with President Christine Lagarde expected at the press conference (13:45 BST) to leave the door open to a possible June hike. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has called an April hike “conceivable” — an outside risk, not the base case. A hawkish hold that flags June as live lifts EUR/USD toward 1.19; a cautious hold sees it drift to 1.16.
GBP/USD forecast: 1.33–1.37
GBP/USD closed Friday 24 April at approximately 1.3490, recovering from a two-week low of 1.345. The pair set its 2026 high of 1.3824 on 28 January and its low of 1.3237 on 14 March. The April rally has been driven by broad dollar weakness rather than independent sterling strength — DXY has fallen roughly 4% over the month. Base case: range trading 1.34–1.36 ahead of Wednesday, then directional resolution. A balanced Fed plus a hawkish BoE hold pushes the pair to 1.36–1.37 within hours; a hawkish Fed plus a dovish BoE hold drags it to 1.33. See our USD forecast 2026.
GBP/EUR forecast: 1.14–1.18
GBP/EUR was trading at 1.1534 entering the new week. Structural support comes from the 175bp gap between the BoE at 3.75% and the ECB at 2.00%, the largest carry differential in the G10. The pair is expected to break out of its recent range by Thursday’s close. A hawkish BoE hold alongside a cautious ECB is the most asymmetric outcome — GBP/EUR could test 1.16–1.17. A dovish BoE hold with a relatively more hawkish ECB pulls the pair back toward 1.13–1.14.
EUR/USD forecast: 1.15–1.20
EUR/USD enters the week around 1.17, driven less by rate differentials than by global risk sentiment — equities and oil are now bigger short-term drivers than the front-end rates spread. The most consequential releases are not the central bank decisions themselves but Eurozone Q1 GDP and CPI flash on Thursday morning, alongside US Q1 GDP and core PCE the same afternoon. Stronger Eurozone data with softer US data lifts the pair toward 1.20; the reverse pulls it to 1.15. See our euro forecast 2026.
Oil and the Iran wildcard
Brent crude closed Friday at $105.33, up roughly 14% on the week. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with both the US and Iran maintaining naval blockades. US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner travelled to Pakistan on Saturday 25 April for direct talks. Sustained Brent above $105 keeps the inflation impulse alive in all three economies, hardening hawkish positioning at each central bank. A breakthrough that reopens shipping flows would trigger 1–2% dollar weakness within days and lift EUR/USD toward 1.20 — exactly the move seen during the 8 April two-week ceasefire before tensions reasserted.
Week-ahead economic calendar
| Date (BST) | Region | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tue 28 Apr, 15:00 | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence | Pre-FOMC sentiment read |
| Wed 29 Apr, 19:00 | US | FOMC rate decision + statement | Dominant USD driver |
| Wed 29 Apr, 19:30 | US | Powell press conference | Tone and 2026 path |
| Thu 30 Apr, 10:00 | Eurozone | Q1 GDP flash + April CPI flash | Drives ECB tone and EUR/USD |
| Thu 30 Apr, 12:00 | UK | BoE Bank Rate decision + Minutes | Vote split critical |
| Thu 30 Apr, 13:15 | Eurozone | ECB rate decision + statement | Hold tone (hawkish vs cautious) |
| Thu 30 Apr, 13:30 | US | Q1 GDP advance + Core PCE | Inflation gauge ahead of June FOMC |
| Thu 30 Apr, 13:45 | Eurozone | Lagarde press conference | June meeting signal |
| Fri 1 May, 15:00 | US | ISM Manufacturing PMI (EU/JP/CN closed for Labour Day) | Final USD test in thin liquidity |
What this means for your transfers
For anyone moving GBP, EUR or USD this week, timing between Tuesday and Friday could meaningfully change the rate received. A 1.5% intra-week move on a £500,000 transfer is £7,500. UK property buyers in the eurozone, UK businesses settling USD invoices, and expats receiving USD income all face the same question: lock in now, or wait for the post-decision rate? Forward contracts fix today’s rate for any payment date up to 12 months ahead.
Strategy: managing event risk
| Approach | Best for | Trade-off |
|---|---|---|
| Spot transfer before Wednesday | Clients who view current rates as acceptable and want certainty before central banks speak | You forgo the upside if outcomes favour your direction |
| Forward contract | Clients with a known payment date in the next 12 months | You commit to the agreed rate even if the market moves your way |
| Split transfer in tranches | Clients with no fixed deadline who want to average their rate | Returns will trail a single well-timed transfer |
Cambridge Currencies operates exclusively over the phone with a dedicated specialist for every client. In our experience working with property buyers and corporate clients across Europe and North America, the single biggest practical mistake during decision weeks is leaving conversion to the morning of the meeting itself — by then the position is already in the rate.
Key takeaways
- GBP/USD: 1.33–1.37 range; FOMC and BoE are the catalysts.
- GBP/EUR: 1.14–1.18; structural support from the 175bp BoE-ECB gap; a hawkish BoE hold pushes 1.16–1.17.
- EUR/USD: 1.15–1.20; driven more by Thursday’s Eurozone GDP/CPI than by the ECB itself.
- Brent above $105 with the Strait of Hormuz closed remains the macro wildcard.
- Completing transfers before Wednesday or using a forward contract removes the bulk of event risk.
Frequently asked questions
GBP/USD is forecast to trade in a 1.33–1.37 range over the week of 28 April – 2 May 2026, with the FOMC decision on 29 April and the Bank of England decision on 30 April as the dominant catalysts. A balanced Fed combined with a hawkish BoE hold could push the pair toward 1.36–1.37.
No. All 62 economists in the Reuters poll of 21 April 2026 expect the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 April, and the March MPC vote was unanimous (9–0) to hold. UK CPI rose to 3.3% in March and businesses now expect 4% inflation in the year ahead, but markets are pricing the next BoE hikes for later in 2026, not at this meeting. The vote split and tone of the Minutes will matter more than the headline decision.
GBP/EUR is forecast in a 1.14–1.18 range, trading at 1.1534 entering the new week. The structural support for sterling is the 175 basis point gap between the Bank of England (3.75%) and the European Central Bank (2.00%). A hawkish BoE hold on 30 April could push the pair to 1.16–1.17.
No. CME FedWatch shows approximately 98% probability that the FOMC keeps the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% on 29 April. The market focus is on whether the statement signals that 2026 rate cuts have been removed from the central path because of Iran-related oil price pressure.
Related guides
- USD Forecast 2026: Six-Month Outlook for the Dollar
- Euro Forecast 2026: EUR/GBP and EUR/USD Predictions
- Iran War and the Dollar Exchange Rate
- Currency Forecasts Hub
If you have a GBP, EUR or USD transfer scheduled between now and Friday — for property, invoices, or moving sale proceeds — speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist about whether to lock today’s rate with a forward contract or position around the decisions. Every transfer is handled by phone with a dedicated specialist who knows your situation. Request a quote or call us directly.
Cambridge Currencies (FCA-registered reference 900170) works with FCA-authorised payment partners Currencycloud (FRN: 900199) and ScioPay (FRN: 927951). All client funds are safeguarded. This article reflects market views as at Sunday 26 April 2026 and will be refreshed weekly.
