The pound to euro forecast for the rest of 2026 is a 1.14–1.17 range, with GBP/EUR currently near the top of that band. As I write in late June 2026, the GBP/EUR exchange rate is around 1.159 (about €1.159 to the pound, or EUR/GBP near 0.863) — close to its 2026 high. Sterling has held firm even though the European Central Bank raised rates on 11 June, because the Bank of England’s rate advantage still favours the pound.
The dominant near-term drivers are now behind the central banks’ June moves and ahead of the Bank of England’s next decision on 30 July. If you’re paying euro invoices from the UK, completing a property purchase in the eurozone, or bringing sale proceeds back to sterling, this guide explains where GBP/EUR is heading and what your practical options are. You can check the live GBP to EUR rate or request a quote to talk it through.
What’s the pound doing against the euro right now?
GBP/EUR has spent most of 2026 inside a tight band, roughly 1.14 to 1.16, and is now trading near the top of it around 1.159. The pair set its 2026 low at 1.1402 on 1 March and reached a high near 1.160 in late May, matched again in late June. By the standards of recent years, that is a remarkably calm range.
The reason sterling has held up is the interest-rate gap. The Bank of England’s Bank Rate is 3.75%, still 150 basis points above the ECB’s 2.25% deposit rate even after the ECB’s June hike — one of the widest gaps in the G10. That yield advantage gives sterling an underlying floor against the euro, and as long as it holds, GBP/EUR has struggled to fall far below 1.14.
What changed in June is that the gap stopped widening in sterling’s favour and began, slightly, to close — yet the pound firmed anyway. That tells you the rate gap is only part of the story; UK politics and relative growth now matter just as much.
Did the ECB hike push the pound lower against the euro?
No — and that surprised some forecasters. The ECB raised its three key rates by 25bp on 11 June 2026, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% — its first hike since 2023 — as eurozone inflation climbed to 3.2% in May on the Middle East energy shock. The ECB’s staff now see headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, with growth of just 0.8% after the eurozone economy contracted in the first quarter.
A week later, the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June in a 7–2 vote — its fourth consecutive hold — with two members voting to raise rates to 4%. UK inflation eased to 2.8% in the year to May, but the hawkish dissent signalled the Bank’s next move could be a hike rather than a cut. With the ECB hiking and the BoE holding firm with a hawkish tilt, the pound’s yield advantage narrowed only modestly and sterling held its ground.
The bigger swing factor for the pound now is domestic politics. A by-election result in Makerfield and speculation over the Labour leadership have raised the prospect of political instability and an earlier general election, which is the main downside risk to sterling over the rest of the year. Energy prices, while off their spring peak, remain elevated and volatile, keeping both central banks cautious.
In my view, the upshot is a pound that stays firm near the top of its range, supported by the rate gap, but exposed to two-sided risk: UK political wobbles on the downside, and a possible further ECB hike in September that would narrow the gap again. For sterling’s broader picture against the dollar, see my GBP to USD forecast.
My GBP/EUR exchange rate forecast for the next six months
My honest view is that GBP/EUR stays range-bound near the upper end of its 2026 band — firm enough that sterling holds around 1.15–1.16, with scope toward 1.17 if UK politics settles, and downside toward 1.14 if it doesn’t. The bank consensus is similar: no major forecaster expects GBP/EUR to break above 1.18 or fall below 1.10 this year. Here are the ranges I’m working to, shown both ways round.
Over a longer horizon, GBP/EUR has averaged roughly 1.155 over the past five years, so today’s 1.159 sits close to its multi-year norm rather than at an extreme — just at the firmer end of it. For the euro’s side of the story — and the EUR/USD picture that sits behind it — see my euro forecast 2026.
Is it a good time to buy euros with pounds?
A useful way to judge it is to look at where the rate sits against its own recent history. GBP/EUR near 1.159 is at the upper end of its year-long band — close to the best level for euro buyers in 2026 — which usually means the level is working in your favour but carries the risk of slipping back.
If you’re buying euros — paying a eurozone supplier, funding a property purchase — a stronger pound buys you more euros, so the current level is relatively favourable. The risk is that UK political uncertainty drags the pound back toward 1.14. To put numbers on it, a €100,000 invoice at 1.159 costs about £86,300; the same invoice at 1.14 costs about £87,700 — a difference of roughly £1,400 on one payment, and far more across a year of recurring transfers.
If you’re selling euros — bringing eurozone sale proceeds or income back to sterling — a pull-back in the pound works in your favour, as each euro would convert into slightly more pounds. On a €400,000 property sale, a move from 1.16 to 1.14 is worth roughly £5,800 in your pocket.
This is where the tools matter. A forward contract lets you fix today’s rate for a payment up to twelve months ahead at no extra cost — particularly useful if you have an invoice or completion due around the Bank of England’s 30 July meeting and want to lock in today’s firm level. A rate alert lets you set a target and be notified if the market reaches it, and splitting a larger amount into tranches averages out your timing rather than committing it all on one day.
If you pay euro invoices regularly, our guide on paying euro bills from the UK covers the methods and costs in more detail, and you can set a target with our exchange rate alerts.
A note from experience
The most expensive mistake I see isn’t picking the wrong moment — it’s leaving a large euro exposure open across a central bank decision or a political event in the hope of a slightly better rate. Around an ECB or BoE meeting, moves of a cent or two within hours are not unusual, and on a property purchase that can swing the cost by thousands of pounds.
A recent example from our desk: a UK business with a €250,000 supplier payment due ahead of a central bank decision was worried a surprise would push GBP/EUR lower and raise their cost. Rather than gamble on the outcome, they fixed the rate with a forward contract, removed the uncertainty, and budgeted with certainty. In my experience with property buyers across Spain, France and Italy, that’s usually the right instinct — secure a sensible rate and get on with the transaction, rather than trying to call the exact top.
Frequently asked questions
What is the pound to euro forecast for 2026?
GBP/EUR is forecast to trade in a 1.14–1.17 range over the rest of 2026, currently near the top around 1.159. The pound is supported by the Bank of England’s 3.75% rate against the ECB’s 2.25% — a 150bp gap even after the ECB’s June hike. The main downside risk is UK political instability; no major forecaster expects GBP/EUR to break above 1.18 or fall below 1.10 this year.
Will the pound get stronger against the euro in 2026?
The pound is already near its 2026 high against the euro, around 1.159. Further gains toward 1.17 are possible if UK politics settles and the Bank of England holds or hikes, but a renewed ECB hike in September or domestic political instability could pull GBP/EUR back toward 1.14. The more likely path is the pair holding a firm 1.15–1.16 rather than breaking sharply higher.
Should I buy euros now or wait?
That depends on your deadline and your tolerance for risk, and it isn’t a decision to make on the rate alone. With GBP/EUR near its 2026 high, the current level is relatively favourable for euro buyers, but it carries the risk of slipping back. If you have a fixed deadline — a property completion or a supplier invoice — a forward contract lets you fix today’s rate and remove the uncertainty. If you have time and flexibility, a rate alert lets you target a better level without watching the screen daily.
When is the next Bank of England and ECB rate decision?
The Bank of England’s next decision is on Thursday 30 July 2026, where another hold at 3.75% is widely expected, though two MPC members voted for a hike in June. The ECB — which raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June — meets again in September, with markets pricing roughly even odds of a further hike. Both meetings are key near-term drivers of GBP/EUR. See our Bank of England rate decision guide for more.
What is the GBP to EUR rate today?
GBP/EUR is trading at approximately 1.159 in late June 2026 (around €1.159 to the pound, or EUR/GBP near 0.863), close to its 2026 high. The 2026 range has been 1.1402 (low, 1 March) to near 1.160 (high, late May and late June), with a year-to-date average near 1.152. Live mid-market rates update throughout each business day on our GBP to EUR converter.
How Cambridge Currencies can help
Getting a good or bad GBP/EUR rate makes a real financial difference, especially on a property purchase or a year of supplier payments, yet for most people foreign exchange isn’t something they handle often. We work differently from the apps and online-only platforms: every transfer is handled by phone with a dedicated specialist — a dealer, not an app — who watches the market on your behalf and flags favourable moves, including around scheduled ECB and BoE decisions.
We support UK businesses paying euro suppliers and individuals completing property purchases across Spain, France, Italy, Portugal and Greece, often at rates more competitive than a high-street bank on large or recurring payments. We work with FCA-authorised payment partners — Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951) — with client funds safeguarded by our FCA-authorised partners at a credit institution, in line with UK safeguarding rules. You can follow every ECB and BoE meeting in our weekly currency forecast, or see the wider picture in our currency forecasts hub. This article is general guidance to help you make your own informed decision, not a personal recommendation.
