Pound sterling is forecast to trade between roughly 1.33 and 1.36 against the US dollar and between 1.145 and 1.165 against the euro in the week of 1 June 2026. Two overseas events dominate: eurozone flash inflation on Tuesday and the US jobs report on Friday. With no top-tier UK data due — though Governor Bailey speaks several times — sterling is largely a passenger to the dollar and the euro this week.
Where are GBP/EUR and GBP/USD right now?
Sterling closed last week around 1.3437 against the US dollar and near 1.154 against the euro, holding a narrow range after the US dollar firmed and the pound shrugged off a softer UK inflation print. GBP/USD has eased about 1.2% over the past month but remains comfortably above its April lows.
The structural backdrop is unchanged: the Bank of England’s Bank Rate sits at 3.75% against a European Central Bank deposit rate of 2.00% — a 175 basis-point gap that remains the widest in the G10 and continues to underpin sterling against the euro. The US Federal Reserve holds its target range at 3.50%–3.75%.
For the longer view behind this week’s numbers, see our GBP/EUR forecast and the wider currency forecasts hub.
What is driving the pound this week?
Three threads run through the week, and the busiest UK input is central-bank speeches rather than data.
1. Eurozone inflation could lock in an ECB hike. Eurozone flash CPI for May is released on Tuesday 2 June. April inflation came in at 3.0%, up from 2.6% in March, and markets now widely expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its 11 June meeting. A May print at or above 3.0% would all but confirm that move and tends to support the euro — which is sterling-negative for GBP/EUR. A clear cool-down would do the opposite. ECB President Lagarde also speaks on Thursday.
2. US payrolls are the week’s biggest single event. The US non-farm payrolls report for May lands on Friday 5 June at 1:30pm UK time, confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Recent US labour data has softened — February payrolls were revised into negative territory and April household employment fell — so a weak number would likely take the dollar lower and lift GBP/USD. A strong beat would reinforce the Fed’s hawkish hold and pressure the pound. Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls offer an early steer.
3. Bank of England speeches carry the UK risk. There is no top-tier UK data release this week, but the Bank of England is vocal: Governor Andrew Bailey speaks on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, and the Bank delivers its Monetary Policy Report hearings on Wednesday. So the domestic risk for sterling this week is about tone, not numbers. In the background, oil has eased from its recent four-year highs as Middle East tensions show tentative signs of de-escalation, which has helped trim some of the risk premium in UK markets. Any renewed escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would push oil and inflation fears back up and tends to favour the dollar.
In my view as CEO of Cambridge Currencies, the key point for this week is that the pound has no top-tier data of its own — so the moves that matter will largely be set in Frankfurt and Washington. But with Bailey speaking three times, London can still spring a surprise on tone.
Key events this week (1–6 June 2026)
| Day | Key events | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 1 Jun | UK & eurozone final manufacturing PMIs; US ISM manufacturing | Growth-sentiment opener; ISM is the first US heavyweight |
| Tue 2 Jun | Eurozone flash CPI (May); BoE Gov Bailey speech | The euro’s swing factor — shapes the 11 June ECB hike call |
| Wed 3 Jun | UK & eurozone final services PMIs; US ISM services; US ADP payrolls; BoE Monetary Policy Report hearings | Mid-week data cluster plus BoE testimony |
| Thu 4 Jun | ECB President Lagarde speech; US jobless claims; BoE Bailey speech | ECB tone into 11 June; second-tier US data |
| Fri 5 Jun | US non-farm payrolls, unemployment, average earnings (May) | The week’s biggest catalyst for GBP/USD and the dollar |
Short-term outlook: a range-bound week with two binary risks
GBP/USD looks range-bound with a soft underside heading into the week, hostage to the dollar until UK data gives traders a fresh reason to move. A realistic band is roughly 1.3320 to 1.3580, with Friday’s payrolls the most likely trigger for a break either way.
GBP/EUR is the more vulnerable cross. With the market leaning towards an ECB rate hike on 11 June, a firm eurozone inflation print on Tuesday could push the pair towards the lower end of a 1.1450 to 1.1650 range. The 175 basis-point rate gap still caps how far the euro can run, but the gap is no longer widening — and that shift in direction matters more than its current size.
Medium-term outlook: the gap narrows, slowly
The bigger story over the next three to twelve months is policy convergence. The ECB is expected to be the more active central bank in the near term, with a June hike that would trim the BoE–ECB gap to 150 basis points. UK inflation has surprised lower — CPI fell to 2.8% in April from 3.3% in March, with services inflation at 3.2%, its lowest since January 2022 — which brings a possible BoE rate cut later in 2026 back into view, though the Bank’s tone has stayed cautious given energy-driven price risks.
On the dollar side, the Fed sits at 3.50%–3.75% under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who took office on 22 May and chairs his first meeting on 16–17 June. The committee has shifted hawkish, and rising Treasury yields suggest markets see rates staying higher for longer. That tends to limit GBP/USD upside even when sterling itself is steady.
Consensus among major banks still places GBP/USD broadly in the 1.33–1.40 zone over the year and GBP/EUR drifting gently lower towards the 1.13–1.14 area by year-end as the rate gap narrows. These are projections, not certainties, and central-bank surprises in June could reshape them quickly. You can read the euro’s own outlook for the other side of the GBP/EUR equation.
What this means for transfers
Different plans face different risks this week.
Euro buyers — anyone funding a property purchase or living costs in the eurozone — face the clearest near-term risk. If Tuesday’s inflation data firms up the ECB hike, the euro could strengthen and sterling could buy fewer euros. If you have a known euro requirement, this is a week where the timing around Tuesday matters. Our experience working with buyers purchasing property in Spain and across the eurozone is that the days around an ECB decision move EUR rates more than the headline year-end forecasts ever do.
Euro sellers — those repatriating proceeds from a property sale abroad or bringing euros back to the UK — would benefit from any euro strength, and a firmer ECB outlook could work in their favour.
Dollar buyers and sellers should keep Friday firmly in view. A weak US jobs report tends to lift GBP/USD, helping anyone converting pounds into dollars; a strong report does the reverse. For larger sums, the swing across a single payrolls release can be material — on a large international transfer of several hundred thousand pounds, a one-cent move on GBP/USD is thousands of pounds.
Businesses with recurring currency exposure have the option to take the timing question off the table entirely using forward contracts, which fix a rate now for settlement up to 12 months ahead. That is guidance on the tools available, not a recommendation on what any individual business should do.
A note on strategy and timing
Where a transfer date is flexible and the requirement is large, splitting an exposure — converting part now and part later — can reduce the impact of getting a single day’s timing wrong. Around binary events like Tuesday’s CPI and Friday’s payrolls, that two-way risk is higher than usual, which is exactly when a clear plan helps most.
A forward contract or a market order (an instruction to execute automatically if the rate reaches a set level) can give certainty or capture a target without watching the screen all week. These are options to weigh against your own circumstances and deadlines — the right choice depends on your timeline, the size of the transfer, and how much rate risk you are comfortable carrying. For high-value sums in particular, see our guidance on repatriating large amounts.
For how this week compares with the last, our previous week-ahead outlook covers the run-up to Friday’s PCE data and Governor Bailey’s speech.
Frequently asked questions
What is the GBP to EUR forecast for the week of 1 June 2026?
GBP/EUR is forecast to trade in a roughly 1.1450 to 1.1650 range in the week of 1 June 2026. The main risk is Tuesday’s eurozone flash inflation: a firm reading would strengthen the case for an ECB rate hike on 11 June and could push sterling towards the lower end of that range.
What is the GBP to USD forecast for this week?
GBP/USD is forecast to trade between approximately 1.3320 and 1.3580. Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report is the dominant driver — a weak jobs number would likely lift GBP/USD, while a strong one would support the dollar and weigh on the pound.
Is there any UK data this week?
The UK has no top-tier data releases this week — only second-tier final PMI surveys. However, the Bank of England is active: Governor Bailey speaks on Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, and the Bank holds its Monetary Policy Report hearings on Wednesday. Sterling is therefore driven mainly by US and eurozone data, with BoE tone the domestic wild card.
When does the Bank of England next set rates?
The Bank of England next decides on Bank Rate on 18 June 2026. It held at 3.75% on 30 April in an 8–1 vote, with one member preferring a rise. Softer UK inflation has brought a possible cut later in 2026 back into the conversation, though no move is expected before the June meeting.
Is the ECB expected to raise interest rates in June?
Markets widely expect the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on 11 June 2026, largely as a precaution against energy-driven inflation. Tuesday’s eurozone CPI print is the key data point ahead of that decision.
Should I transfer money now or wait?
That depends on your deadline, the size of your transfer and how much rate risk you can carry — it is not a decision anyone should make for you. The tools to manage timing include spot transfers, forward contracts to fix a rate ahead of time, and market orders that execute at a target level. A Cambridge Currencies specialist can talk you through the trade-offs for your situation.
Speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist about your transfer this week. Whether you are buying euros for a property purchase, moving dollars, or repatriating proceeds from a sale, every transfer is completed by phone with a dedicated specialist who knows your file — so you are never left guessing on timing. Request a quote or call our team to discuss your options.
Cambridge Currencies works with FCA-authorised payment partners, Currencycloud and ScioPay, to deliver client transfers. This article is general market insight and does not constitute financial advice.
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