The US Dollar Index (DXY) is forecast to trade between 98 and 103 over the next six months, and between 99 and 102.5 over the next three. On our calculation from ECB reference rates, the index stood at about 101.0 on 25 September 2026. That is up 2.4% since 9 September, a rise spanning the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate rise on 16 September.
What is the US Dollar Index (DXY)?
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the US dollar’s value against a basket of six major currencies, set at 100 in March 1973. A rising DXY means the dollar is strengthening against the basket; a falling DXY means it is weakening. The index is published by ICE, and its published formula uses fixed weights:
| Currency | Weight in the DXY |
|---|---|
| Euro | 57.6% |
| Japanese yen | 13.6% |
| British pound | 11.9% |
| Canadian dollar | 9.1% |
| Swedish krona | 4.2% |
| Swiss franc | 3.6% |
Because the euro makes up more than half the basket, the DXY is largely a mirror image of EUR/USD. At current levels, a 1% rise in EUR/USD takes roughly 0.58 points off the index, all else equal.
What is the DXY level now, and how has it moved in 2026?
The table applies ICE’s formula to ECB euro reference rates at each month-end. The ECB sets these rates once a day, around 14:10 CET, so the figures will differ slightly from the index’s closing level in New York. They are a consistent, checkable record of the dollar’s path, not a live quote.
| Date (ECB fixing) | DXY (calculated) |
|---|---|
| 2 January 2026 | 98.46 |
| 30 January 2026 | 96.57 |
| 27 February 2026 | 97.72 |
| 31 March 2026 | 100.25 |
| 30 April 2026 | 98.41 |
| 29 May 2026 | 99.06 |
| 30 June 2026 | 101.38 |
| 31 July 2026 | 100.35 |
| 31 August 2026 | 99.55 |
| 9 September 2026 | 98.61 |
| 25 September 2026 | 100.98 |
The index is up 2.6% in 2026. Its month-end range runs from a low of 96.57 in January to a high of 101.38 at the end of June. The dollar softened through July and August, then reversed sharply in September, climbing from 98.61 to 100.98 in just over two weeks.
Why has the dollar index risen in September 2026?
On 16 September the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% by a 12–0 vote, saying the move “will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal”.
The Fed’s September projections matter more than the rise itself. The median federal funds rate is 4.1% at the end of 2026 and 4.1% at the end of 2027. That implies one more rise this year and no cuts next year, a plateau rather than a peak. The case for a much weaker dollar depends on Fed cuts, and the Fed’s own projections do not show any.
Growth adds to the dollar’s advantage. The Fed projects US growth of 2.3% in 2026, while ECB staff project 0.9% for the euro area. Meanwhile, the ECB’s own rise on 10 September was matched by the Fed’s a week later, so the euro gained nothing on the interest rate gap. Our euro to dollar forecast sets out that side in detail.
US Dollar Index forecast for the next three to six months
Our DXY ranges are derived from our EUR/USD forecast, because the euro carries 57.6% of the index. We then widen them slightly to allow for the other five currencies.
| Horizon | EUR/USD forecast | Implied DXY | DXY forecast range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Next 1–3 months | 1.12–1.17 | 99.5–102.0 | 99–102.5 |
| Next 6 months | 1.11–1.19 | 98.5–102.6 | 98–103 |
Cambridge Currencies’ forecast ranges as at 25 September 2026. They are not guarantees, and the index may move outside them. This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and after each Federal Reserve decision.
What could push the DXY above 103?
The Fed delivering the extra rise its projections imply while the ECB and Bank of England pause, or a further widening of the growth gap. Either would push EUR/USD toward the bottom of its range and the index toward the top of ours.
What could pull the DXY below 98?
A US slowdown sharp enough to bring rate cuts back into view, against the Fed’s own projections. Another possibility is the ECB raising rates again while the Fed holds. ECB staff project euro area core inflation rising to 2.6% in 2027, which keeps a further ECB rise possible.
Which dates could move the dollar index?
- 27–28 October: Federal Reserve, followed by the ECB on 28–29 October
- 5 November: Bank of England
- 8–9 December: Federal Reserve, with new projections that will show whether the 2027 plateau still holds
- 16–17 December: ECB
Dates are from the Federal Reserve and ECB calendars. Our page on the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision tracks the Fed.
What does the DXY forecast mean for your transfers?
You cannot transfer money at the DXY. It is an index, and your transfer happens at a single rate such as GBP/USD. A rising DXY generally means GBP/USD and EUR/USD are falling, which is worse for anyone buying dollars and better for anyone selling them.
In an illustrative example, a UK business converting £500,000 into dollars receives $650,000 at a GBP/USD rate of 1.30 and $680,000 at 1.36. The $30,000 difference comes entirely from where the dollar sits on the day. Our pound to dollar forecast covers that pair, and you can check the live USD to GBP rate at any time.
Dollar strength also carries into pegged and managed currencies. That is why the UAE dirham tracks the dollar, and why the rupee is covered in our USD/INR forecast.
How can you manage dollar risk on a large transfer?
- Forward contract fixes a rate for a payment up to 12 months ahead. It suits anyone with a fixed dollar obligation, such as a US property completion, tuition or a supplier invoice.
- Market order targets a specific rate and executes automatically if the market reaches it.
- Splitting the transfer converts in tranches and averages your rate across the range, rather than committing everything on one day.
Which fits depends on your deadline and how much movement you can absorb. Our guide to whether to lock in a rate or wait works through the trade-off.
Frequently asked questions
What is the DXY forecast?
The US Dollar Index is forecast to trade between 99 and 102.5 over the next three months and between 98 and 103 over six months. The Fed’s projection of no rate cuts through 2027 is the main support. A renewed ECB rise or a sharp US slowdown are the main downside risks.
What is the DXY level today?
On our calculation from ECB reference rates, the DXY was about 100.98 on 25 September 2026. The index moves continuously through the trading day, so live quotes will differ.
What was the dollar index in August 2026?
On our calculation, the DXY fell from 100.35 at the end of July to 99.55 at the end of August 2026. It kept falling to 98.61 on 9 September before the Fed’s rate rise on 16 September.
Will the US dollar get stronger or weaker?
The balance has tilted toward a firmer dollar since mid-September. The Fed raised rates and projects no cuts through 2027, and US growth is projected well ahead of the euro area’s. That could change if US data weaken sharply or the ECB raises rates again.
How is the DXY calculated?
ICE calculates the DXY as a weighted geometric mean of the dollar against six currencies: the euro (57.6%), yen (13.6%), pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%). The base is 100 in March 1973.
Is the US Dollar Index the same as the dollar exchange rate?
No. The DXY measures the dollar against a basket weighted heavily toward the euro. The rate you transact at, such as GBP/USD, is a single pair and can move differently. The pound carries only 11.9% of the index.
How often is this forecast updated?
Every four to eight weeks, and after each Federal Reserve decision. The next review follows the 27–28 October Fed meeting.
Speak to a specialist about your dollar transfer
If you are buying dollars for a US property, paying USD invoices, or bringing dollar income back to the UK, request a quote. A dedicated Cambridge Currencies specialist will talk through timing and structure by phone, which is how every transfer is arranged. Payments are made through our FCA-authorised partners Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951).
Related forecasts: US dollar forecast 2026 · US dollar forecast 2027 · All currency forecasts
Sources: ICE US Dollar Index FAQ (formula and weights); ECB euro reference rates; FOMC statement, 16 September 2026; FOMC projections, 16 September 2026; ECB monetary policy decisions, 10 September 2026. DXY values are Cambridge Currencies calculations using ICE’s published formula applied to ECB reference rates.
