Weekly Currency Forecast 13–17 July 2026: GBP/USD, GBP/EUR and EUR/USD

GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.3200 and 1.3550 this week, with Tuesday’s US CPI release and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first semiannual testimony to Congress the dominant drivers. GBP/EUR may hold a 1.1650–1.1850 range after the European Central Bank’s June rate hike, while EUR/USD is expected to stay capped between 1.1300 and 1.1500. Sterling entered the week at 1.3394 against the dollar (10 July) and 1.1738 against the euro (11 July).

All times below are BST. This forecast was written on Sunday 12 July 2026 and reflects verified data available at that date.

What is driving currency markets this week?

Three central banks are pulling in different directions, and that divergence is now the main engine of G10 currency moves.

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 June 2026, but the vote was 7–2, with two members voting to raise rates by 25 basis points to 4%. That is a hawkish hold, not a dovish one. Our guide to the next Bank of England interest rate decision sets out what happens on 30 July.

The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on 17 June 2026 — Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, and a unanimous 12–0 vote. Critically, the Fed removed language signalling a bias toward cuts, and the dot plot shifted up: most officials now see the rate ending 2026 between 3.6% and 4.1%, against 3.25%–3.75% previously.

The European Central Bank went furthest. On 11 June 2026 it raised all three key rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.25% with effect from 17 June — its first increase since September 2023, and a complete reversal of the eight consecutive cuts delivered between June 2024 and June 2025.

The common cause is energy. Euro area flash HICP hit 3.2% year-on-year in May 2026, the highest since September 2023. US CPI accelerated to 4.2% in May, up from 3.8% in April, and core PCE — the Fed’s preferred gauge — rose 3.4% over the twelve months to May. If you want the mechanics, our explainer on how interest rates affect currency exchange covers why these moves matter so much for your rate.

“The market has spent 2026 repricing from a cutting cycle to a hiking cycle, and it hasn’t finished. For anyone with a currency exposure, the risk this summer isn’t a slow drift — it’s a repricing gap after a single data release.”

Anthony Bull, CEO, Cambridge Currencies

The counterweight is the recently signed US–Iran peace deal, which has taken some heat out of energy markets and softened expectations of a summer inflation spike. Rates markets are now less convinced that aggressive tightening is coming, which changes the calculus on timing a dollar transfer.

Which economic events move currencies this week?

Note what is not on the calendar: there is no BoE, Fed or ECB rate decision this week, and no UK inflation data — June CPI is not published by the ONS until 22 July. Sterling therefore has to take its cues from speeches and Thursday’s growth figures, which is why our explainer on how GDP data moves exchange rates is worth five minutes before Thursday.

GBP/USD forecast this week: 1.3200–1.3550

Sterling traded at 1.3394 against the dollar on 10 July 2026, having ranged between roughly 1.3334 and 1.3449 over the preceding week. Our GBP to USD exchange rate guide tracks the pair in more detail.

Tuesday is the pivot. Consensus looks for June headline CPI to fall around 0.1% month-on-month, cutting the annual rate to roughly 3.9% from 4.2%, while core CPI grinds higher by about 0.3%, holding the annual core rate near 2.9%. The Cleveland Fed’s nowcast model points to headline CPI near 3.96% year-on-year.

The trap here is obvious. A soft headline number will generate “inflation is cooling” headlines, but a one-month dip in energy prices does not change the underlying picture — and Warsh will be asked about exactly that, ninety minutes later, in front of the House Financial Services Committee.

“If core comes in at 0.3% or hotter and Warsh declines to rule out a September hike, the dollar could firm quickly and GBP/USD could test the low 1.32s. The scenario that lifts cable back toward 1.35 is a genuinely soft core print combined with a Chair who sounds more balanced than his dot plot suggests. Both outcomes are live.”

Anthony Bull, CEO, Cambridge Currencies

Thursday’s UK GDP release is sterling’s own test. UK GDP grew 0.6% in Q1 2026 (unrevised), a solid figure by recent standards. A weak monthly print would undercut the two hawkish MPC dissenters and weigh on the pound; a firm one keeps a hike in the conversation.

Forecast range this week: 1.3200–1.3550. A close above 1.3450 would open the door to the 1.35 handle. A break below 1.3300 would signal dollar strength taking control.

GBP/EUR forecast this week: 1.1650–1.1850

GBP/EUR was quoted at 1.1738 on 11 July 2026, near the top of its 2026 range and well above the year’s 1.1402 low set on 1 March. Live levels and a fuller view sit on our pound to euro forecast page.

The euro’s problem is that the ECB is tightening from a much lower base. At 2.25%, the deposit rate sits 150 basis points below Bank Rate at 3.75%. Even with markets anticipating further ECB hikes — September is widely seen as the next likely move — that carry gap is substantial, and it is what has kept sterling supported.

This week gives the euro relatively little to work with. Final euro area HICP on Friday should confirm rather than surprise, and the calendar’s other euro releases — trade balance, industrial production, national CPI revisions — rarely move the pair on their own. Speeches from Isabel Schnabel (Monday) and Joachim Nagel (Wednesday) are the more interesting entries, given the Governing Council’s shift to a tightening stance.

That leaves GBP/EUR largely a sterling story, driven by Huw Pill on Monday evening, Bailey on Tuesday evening and UK GDP on Thursday morning.

Pill matters more than a typical MPC speech. As Chief Economist he voted to raise Bank Rate to 4% at both the April and June meetings — the sole dissenter in April, joined by one colleague in June — and has argued that the UK economy has been running hotter than its supply side can bear. If he repeats that case on Monday, sterling has a hawkish tailwind into the rest of the week.

Forecast range this week: 1.1650–1.1850. In our experience working with clients buying property across the eurozone, rates in the 1.17s have been rare in this cycle — the 2026 average sits closer to 1.1536. Anyone with a euro purchase to fund is watching this level closely, and it is worth understanding how forward contracts work before the opportunity passes.

EUR/USD forecast this week: 1.1300–1.1500

EUR/USD fell to 1.1411 on 10 July 2026, down roughly 1.45% over the preceding month and about 2.37% over twelve months. Our GBP/USD and EUR/USD market commentary gives the longer-run picture.

This is the hardest pair to call, because both central banks have turned hawkish at the same time. The ECB is hiking from 2.25%; the Fed is holding at 3.50%–3.75% with a dot plot that now leans toward a hike. Markets currently price one 25 basis point Fed increase by October 2026.

The euro’s rate-differential disadvantage is the anchor. But if Tuesday’s CPI is soft enough to push Fed hike pricing out beyond October, the single currency has room to recover toward 1.15.

Forecast range this week: 1.1300–1.1500.

What is the medium-term outlook for sterling?

Over a three-to-twelve-month horizon, the central question is whether the energy-driven inflation impulse fades faster than central banks tighten in response to it.

Markets currently expect the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% for the remainder of 2026, though economists’ forecasts span roughly 3.50% to 4.25% and a Reuters poll showed nearly 40% expecting at least one hike. SONIA futures pricing implies Bank Rate rising toward roughly 4.2% in early 2027 before easing back toward 4% by early 2028. Services inflation near 3.7% is what keeps a hike on the table.

On that basis, GBP/USD could trade a 1.30–1.36 range over the next three months, and GBP/EUR a 1.15–1.19 range, with the balance of risk tilted modestly in sterling’s favour on carry — but highly sensitive to the UK growth data. These are Cambridge Currencies’ working ranges, not certainties; a renewed energy shock or a disorderly repricing of Fed expectations would break them.

What does this mean for your money transfer?

If you are buying property in Europe (sending GBP, buying EUR): GBP/EUR near 1.17 is toward the strong end of the 2026 range. On a €500,000 purchase, the difference between 1.1750 and 1.1550 is roughly £7,400 — real money, and entirely a function of when you fix the rate. Our Spain property transfer guide and French property purchase guidance cover the mechanics.

If you are bringing money into the UK (selling EUR or USD): The picture is less comfortable. Sterling’s carry advantage has pushed GBP/EUR to the upper end of its range, meaning euro sellers are receiving fewer pounds. Clients converting large euro amounts to sterling have increasingly split transfers rather than committing in one go.

If you are a business with USD or EUR invoices: Tuesday’s CPI and Thursday’s UK GDP both fall inside most payment cycles. Business FX exposures of any size are worth reviewing before Tuesday, not after.

If you are an expat receiving a UK pension abroad: Regular transfers are less exposed to single-day moves, but the cumulative effect of a 2% shift over a year is substantial. Options such as transferring a UK pension to France are worth understanding in a volatile rate environment.

How can you manage a data-heavy week?

There is no way to know in advance whether Tuesday’s CPI prints hot or cold. What you can control is your exposure to that uncertainty.

• Forward contracts let you fix today’s rate for a future date, typically up to 12 months ahead, usually for a deposit. If you have a known euro liability — a property completion, a supplier invoice — this removes the guesswork. See our explanation of forward versus spot contracts.
• Market orders let you set a target rate and execute automatically if the market reaches it, including overnight. Useful when a level like 1.18 on GBP/EUR is your objective.
• Splitting transfers across several dates averages your rate rather than betting on a single moment. This is the most common approach among our clients in weeks with binary event risk.
• Spot is right when you need the money now and the timing is fixed. Just be clear about the margin you are paying.

None of these is universally “best” — the right structure depends on your deadline, your tolerance for movement, and whether the amount is known. That conversation is worth having before the data lands, not after. Our broader guide to FX hedging strategies sets out how these tools fit together.

Cambridge Currencies executes transactions through FCA-authorised partners, including Currencycloud and ScioPay, with client funds held in segregated accounts. Our guide to FCA regulation for FX clients explains what that protection means in practice.

Frequently asked questions

Will the pound go up this week?

GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.3200 and 1.3550, and GBP/EUR between 1.1650 and 1.1850. The direction depends primarily on Tuesday’s US CPI release and Thursday’s UK GDP figures. No outcome is guaranteed.

What is the biggest event for currency markets this week?

US CPI for June, released at 13:30 BST on Tuesday 14 July, followed 90 minutes later by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first congressional testimony. Both land on the same afternoon.

What is the Bank of England base rate right now?

Bank Rate is 3.75%. The MPC voted 7–2 to hold at its meeting ending 17 June 2026, with two members preferring a rise to 4%. The next decision is on 30 July 2026.

Has the ECB started raising rates again?

Yes. On 11 June 2026 the ECB raised all three key rates by 25 basis points, taking the deposit facility rate to 2.25% with effect from 17 June — its first hike since September 2023.

Is UK inflation data released this week?

No. The ONS publishes June CPI on 22 July 2026. The most recent reading is 2.8% for the twelve months to May 2026, unchanged from April.

Should I transfer money now or wait?

That depends on your deadline, the size of the transfer, and how much movement you can absorb. A forward contract fixes a rate now; a market order targets a better one; splitting the transfer averages your outcome. A currency specialist can walk you through the trade-offs for your situation.

What is a forward contract?

A forward contract is an agreement to exchange a set amount of currency at an agreed rate on a future date, typically up to 12 months ahead, secured with a deposit. It removes exchange rate uncertainty for a known future payment.

Is Cambridge Currencies regulated?

Cambridge Currencies executes transactions through FCA-authorised partners, including Currencycloud and ScioPay. Client funds are held in segregated accounts with those authorised institutions.

Speak to a currency specialist before Tuesday

If you have a euro or dollar transfer landing in the next few months — a property completion, a supplier payment, a pension transfer — this week’s data could move your rate meaningfully in either direction.

Every Cambridge Currencies transaction is completed by phone with a dedicated specialist who knows your corridor and your timeline. No app, no chatbot, no guessing. Request a quote or speak to a currency specialist about your specific transfer.

Related guides

• Sending money to the UK: a complete guide
• Buying property abroad: a UK buyer’s guide
• Expat money transfers explained

This article provides general market information and guidance, not a recommendation to act. Exchange rates move and forecasts may not be realised. Data sourced from the Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Office for National Statistics, Bank of Canada and US Bureau of Labor Statistics.