Sterling starts the week of 6 July 2026 near its 2026 highs, with GBP/EUR around 1.166 and GBP/USD near 1.335. A soft US jobs report and a fresh 2026 peak against the euro have left the pound firm on both fronts. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Monday’s US ISM Services data are the week’s dominant drivers.
The pound enters the week in a strong position. GBP/EUR touched 1.1676 on 2 July — its best level of 2026 — while GBP/USD has recovered from a late-June low near 1.32 to around 1.335. Both moves owe more to a softer dollar and a cooling euro than to any fresh strength in sterling itself. With the Bank of England’s 3.75% Bank Rate still well above the European Central Bank’s 2.25% deposit rate, the pound continues to sit near the top of its range against the euro.
This is a positioning week ahead of a busy end to July. The next central bank cluster — the ECB on 23 July, the Federal Reserve on 28–29 July and the Bank of England on 30 July — is still three weeks away, so markets will spend this week reading the signals. The clearest of those signals arrives on Wednesday, when the Fed publishes the minutes of its hawkish June meeting.
What’s driving the pound, euro and dollar this week?
Three threads run through the week: a Federal Reserve the market suspects is edging towards a rate hike, a euro softened by falling inflation, and a pound quietly benefiting from both.
The dollar. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% on 17 June 2026, in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Chair, but its updated projections turned hawkish — the median policymaker now expects rates to end 2026 higher than today. You can read the full decision on the Federal Reserve’s website. Markets now price roughly one 25bp hike by October. That backdrop kept the dollar firm through late June — until Thursday’s jobs report showed the US economy added just 57,000 roles, with unemployment slipping to 4.2% as workers left the labour force. The softer data, plus a less hawkish tone from Warsh at the ECB’s Sintra forum on 1 July, took some steam out of the dollar and let both the pound and euro recover.
The euro. The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June 2026 — its first hike since 2023 — yet the euro has since eased rather than climbed. Eurozone headline inflation cooled to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, with core easing to 2.4%, and President Lagarde struck a notably calmer tone at Sintra, noting that risks to inflation and growth had diminished after oil fell back on the US–Iran ceasefire. Markets have trimmed the odds of a third ECB hike, which caps the euro. The current levels are set out on the ECB’s key interest rate page.
The pound. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 18 June in a 7–2 vote, with two members preferring a hike — a reminder that the UK’s rate advantage is not shifting quickly. UK headline inflation, at 2.8%, sits below the US, while services inflation near 3.7% keeps the Bank cautious about cutting. That gap between UK and eurozone rates is the anchor holding GBP/EUR near the top of its 2026 band. The Bank’s current Bank Rate and this week’s Financial Stability Report are both worth watching.
“The pound isn’t strong so much as the dollar and euro have softened at the same time,” says Anthony Bull, CEO of Cambridge Currencies. “For anyone buying euros, GBP/EUR near 1.166 is close to the best level all year. The risk of holding out for a fraction more is that the move never comes — and around this month’s central bank decisions, a firm level can slip within hours.”
Which events move the markets this week?
The calendar is light on top-tier UK data but heavy on US signals and central bank speakers. These are the releases most likely to move the pound, euro and dollar.
| Day | Event | Currency | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 6 Jul | US ISM Services PMI; ECB President Lagarde speech; eurozone retail sales | USD, EUR | A weak US services read would extend the dollar’s pull-back; Lagarde’s tone shapes ECB hike expectations |
| Tue 7 Jul | BoE Financial Stability Report & FPC minutes; German industrial production | GBP, EUR | Financial stability commentary can move sterling; German data tests eurozone momentum |
| Wed 8 Jul | FOMC minutes (June meeting); RBNZ rate decision | USD, NZD | The week’s key event — markets will parse the minutes for any July hike signal |
| Thu 9 Jul | China CPI; US jobless claims; Fed Williams speech; BoE Breeden speech | USD, CNY, GBP | Claims and Fed commentary refine the US rate path after the soft jobs report |
| Fri 10 Jul | German final HICP; Canadian employment; UK NIESR GDP estimate | EUR, CAD, GBP | Confirms the eurozone inflation slowdown; UK growth read closes the week |
GBP/EUR forecast: where next for the pound against the euro?
GBP/EUR is forecast to trade in roughly a 1.155–1.170 range this week, with the fresh 2026 high at 1.1676 the key resistance level to watch. Having pushed above 1.16 — a ceiling that held for much of the year — the pair is now testing the upper edge of its 2026 band.
The move is driven by the euro side. Cooling eurozone inflation and a calmer ECB have reduced the case for a further hike, narrowing the euro’s near-term appeal just as the UK’s rate advantage holds firm. A weak German HICP print on Friday could extend the pound’s edge; a hawkish surprise from Lagarde on Monday could pull GBP/EUR back toward 1.155. For the full picture, see our pound to euro forecast and the wider euro outlook for 2026.
For the rest of 2026, our base case remains a 1.14–1.17 range, with the pair currently near the top. A break above 1.17 would need UK politics to stay calm and the ECB to signal a pause; a renewed ECB hike later in the year could narrow the gap and pull the pair back toward 1.14.
GBP/USD forecast: what will the FOMC minutes mean for cable?
GBP/USD is forecast to trade between roughly 1.325 and 1.345 this week, with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Monday’s ISM Services survey the main triggers. Cable has recovered from a late-June low near 1.32 to around 1.335 as the dollar softened.
The minutes are the swing factor. If they read as firmly hawkish — reinforcing the June dot plot’s signal of a possible 2026 hike — the dollar could firm again and press GBP/USD back toward 1.325. If they show a committee more divided than the projections suggested, the pound could hold the mid-1.30s. After Thursday’s soft jobs report, the market is unusually sensitive to any shift in the Fed’s tone. Our full GBP/USD forecast and US dollar outlook set out the drivers in detail.
Our base case for the rest of 2026 is a 1.30–1.40 range, with the pair in the mid-1.30s. This remains largely a dollar story: sterling hasn’t strengthened dramatically, but the dollar’s June surge has partly unwound.
EUR/USD forecast: can the euro hold above 1.14?
EUR/USD is forecast to trade in roughly a 1.135–1.150 range this week. The pair has rebounded toward 1.145 as the dollar eased, but softer eurozone inflation caps the upside.
With both the Fed and ECB now leaning cautious rather than clearly diverging, EUR/USD lacks a strong directional driver. The pair is, in effect, stuck between a firm-but-fading dollar and a euro whose rate-hike story has stalled. A hawkish set of FOMC minutes could push it back toward 1.135; a dovish read plus weak US services data could lift it toward 1.150. Our base case for the rest of 2026 remains a wide 1.13–1.21 range, reflecting genuine two-sided risk.
Weekly forecast ranges at a glance
| Pair | Level (4 Jul) | This week’s range | Rest-of-2026 base case |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/EUR | ~1.166 | 1.155 – 1.170 | 1.14 – 1.17 |
| GBP/USD | ~1.335 | 1.325 – 1.345 | 1.30 – 1.40 |
| EUR/USD | ~1.144 | 1.135 – 1.150 | 1.13 – 1.21 |
Indicative mid-market reference levels as of 4 July 2026, not buying or selling rates. Ranges are guidance based on current market pricing, not guarantees. You can check live levels on our exchange rates hub.
What this week means for your transfers
The right read depends on which way you are converting and when your money is due.
- Buying euros — for a property purchase, a supplier payment or moving funds to the eurozone. GBP/EUR near 1.166 is close to the best level of 2026, so the current rate is relatively favourable. If you are sending money to France or completing on a home abroad, the upside from waiting looks limited against the risk of a pull-back.
- Buying dollars — for US property, USD invoices or dollar costs. The dollar is off its June highs but still firm; Wednesday’s FOMC minutes could move cable by more than a cent in either direction.
- Selling euros or dollars back to sterling — a firmer pound means each euro or dollar converts to slightly less. If your funds are already abroad, the timing question is finer, and a target level may suit better than a fixed date.
- UK businesses — a week of Fed signals and central bank speakers means intraday swings are likely if you are paying euro- or dollar-denominated suppliers.
How to manage the risk around this week’s events
With the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and three central bank decisions in late July, the run into the end of the month carries real two-way risk. A few tools help manage it — the right one depends entirely on your deadline and how much certainty you need.
- A forward contract lets you fix today’s rate for a transfer up to around twelve months ahead — useful if you have a completion date or invoice due across the late-July decisions and want certainty now. Our guide to forward contracts explains how they work.
- A rate alert lets you set a target level and be notified if the market reaches it — helpful when you have a level in mind but no fixed deadline.
- Splitting a large transfer into tranches averages out your timing rather than betting it all on one day.
“Most of the value on a large transfer isn’t the forecast — it’s matching the contract to the client’s actual deadline,” says Anthony Bull. “In our experience, the costliest mistake is leaving a six-figure exposure open across a Fed decision hoping for a slightly better rate. A cent or two of movement on a property purchase can swing the cost by thousands of pounds.” A specialist can walk you through the options so you can make your own informed decision — that is support and insight, not a recommendation to take a particular action.
Frequently asked questions
What is the GBP/EUR forecast for the week of 6 July 2026?
GBP/EUR is forecast to trade in roughly a 1.155–1.170 range in the week of 6 July 2026, near its 2026 high of 1.1676. Cooling eurozone inflation and a steady Bank of England rate advantage are keeping the pound firm against the euro.
Why has the pound risen against the euro and dollar?
The pound has risen mainly because the euro and dollar have softened. Eurozone inflation cooled to 2.8% in June, reducing the case for a further ECB hike, while a soft US jobs report and a calmer Federal Reserve tone eased the dollar. The Bank of England’s 3.75% Bank Rate remains well above the ECB’s 2.25%, anchoring GBP/EUR near the top of its 2026 range.
Why do the FOMC minutes matter this week?
The FOMC minutes, published on Wednesday 8 July, cover the Federal Reserve’s hawkish June meeting. Markets will read them for any signal on a possible 2026 rate hike. A firmly hawkish tone could strengthen the dollar and press GBP/USD lower, while a more divided picture could support the pound.
When are the next central bank decisions?
The next major decisions fall in late July 2026: the European Central Bank on 23 July, the Federal Reserve on 28–29 July, and the Bank of England on 30 July. Three decisions in eight days make late July the most concentrated event-risk window of the quarter.
Is now a good time to buy euros?
GBP/EUR near 1.166 is close to the best level for euro buyers in 2026, so the current rate is relatively favourable by this year’s standards. Whether to act depends on your deadline and tolerance for risk. A forward contract can fix today’s rate if you have a fixed completion or payment date; this is general insight, not a personal recommendation.
What is a forward contract?
A forward contract is an agreement to exchange a set amount of currency at a fixed rate on a future date, up to around twelve months ahead. It removes exchange-rate uncertainty, though it commits you to that rate even if the market later moves in your favour. It is often used by property buyers and businesses with a known payment date.
How does Cambridge Currencies complete a transfer?
Every transfer is handled by phone with a dedicated specialist — a real dealer, not an app — who can talk through timing around scheduled central bank decisions. Cambridge Currencies is a currency broker founded in 2023; payments and safeguarding are provided through its FCA-authorised partners, Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951).
Speak to a specialist about your transfer
Planning a euro or dollar transfer around this week’s FOMC minutes or the late-July central bank decisions? Request a free quote and a Cambridge Currencies specialist will talk it through with you by phone — from timing a property completion to fixing a rate ahead of the Fed. You can also contact the team directly, or follow the markets each week in our currency forecasts hub.
Related guides: Last week’s currency forecast · Pound to euro forecast 2026 · GBP/USD forecast 2026
This forecast is general market insight and does not constitute a personal recommendation to take any particular action. Exchange rates can move quickly; all figures are indicative and based on market data as of 4 July 2026.
