The U.S. dollar slipped on Monday as markets digested last Friday’s stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls report. With no major data today, global FX sentiment remains subdued but stable.
USD Outlook: Post-NFP Pullback
- Nonfarm Payrolls came in at +139k in May (+0.4% hourly earnings), vs. 130k expected and 147k (revised) in April.
- The strong print pushed Treasury yields higher and briefly lifted the dollar, but early Monday saw the greenback unwind those gains—a sign of profit-taking and cautious sentiment.
- EUR/USD jumped 0.29% to 1.1429, GBP/USD rose 0.37% to 1.3575, and AUD/USD outperformed with a 0.56% gain—supported by increased risk tolerance.
Asia & EM Impact: Pace, Policy, and Trade Headlines
- USD/INR declined 0.26%, with the rupee stabilising thanks to a rebound in forward premiums and optimism over trade talks.
- USD/MXN dropped 0.23% amid the dollar pullback, though macro themes like U.S.–China talks and Treasury yields will shape emerging-market flows ahead.
- Hong Kong’s dollar peg remains resilient, with recent HKMA interventions easing pressure following April’s FX volatility .
Currency Snapshot – 10:02 BST
| Pair | Price | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | 1.1429 | ▲ 0.29% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3575 | ▲ 0.37% |
| AUD/USD | 0.6527 | ▲ 0.56% |
| NZD/USD | 0.6058 | ▲ 0.72% |
| USD/JPY | 144.13 | ▼ 0.51% |
| USD/CAD | 1.3676 | ▼ 0.15% |
| USD/INR | 85.5660 | ▼ 0.26% |
| USD/MXN | 19.0697 | ▼ 0.23% |
What to Watch This Week
- Wednesday: U.S. CPI is the centerpiece—will wage pressure from last week’s jobs data show up in inflation?
- Thursday–Friday: Eurozone and U.K. inflation/PMI releases to influence ECB and BoE policy outlooks.
- Ongoing: U.S.–China trade discussions in London may shift risk sentiment and impact Asia FX flows.
Bottom line:
Last week’s robust payrolls report pushed the dollar higher momentarily, but with mid-week inflation data looming, markets are taking a breather. Expect FX volatility around U.S. CPI and global policy triggers later this week.
