GBP/USD is trading around 1.33–1.34 and GBP/EUR near 1.16 as a five central-bank week opens. The Federal Reserve (17 June) is expected to hold at 3.50%–3.75% and the Bank of England (18 June) at 3.75%, leaving forward guidance, fresh Fed projections and Wednesday’s UK inflation data as the week’s main drivers for sterling.
This is one of the busiest central-bank weeks of 2026: the Bank of Japan and Reserve Bank of Australia decide on Tuesday, the Fed on Wednesday, and the Bank of England and Swiss National Bank on Thursday. For anyone with a euro or dollar payment to make, 17–18 June carries the most concentrated event risk of the quarter. This is general market insight, not a personal recommendation. Rates are mid-market levels as of 14 June 2026.
Where are GBP/USD and GBP/EUR right now?
Sterling enters the week steady. GBP/USD sits around 1.33–1.34, in the lower half of its 2026 range, while GBP/EUR holds near 1.16. The backdrop is the US–Iran war, which has lifted energy prices and inflation and flipped the rate outlook — markets that began 2026 expecting cuts are now pricing the opposite. For the fuller picture, see our GBP to USD forecast and pound to euro forecast.
What is driving the pound this week?
- Federal Reserve (Wed 17 June): a hold at 3.50%–3.75% is widely expected. The focus is the updated projections — the “dot plot” — and whether energy-driven inflation lifts the projected rate path.
- Bank of England (Thu 18 June): a hold at 3.75% is almost fully priced. The vote split and minutes matter more — a hawkish hold could support the pound, a cautious tone could weigh on it.
- UK inflation (Wed 17 June): May CPI lands the morning before the BoE. A hotter print could firm sterling.
- The ECB’s hike: on 11 June the ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, its first increase since 2023, citing war-driven inflation — supportive for the euro and a headwind for GBP/EUR.
This week’s economic calendar
The high-impact releases for GBP, EUR and USD this week (times in BST):
| When & what | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Mon 15 — ECB Lagarde speech (EUR) | First read on ECB thinking after the 11 June hike |
| Tue 16 — Bank of Japan & RBA decisions (JPY, AUD) | Global risk tone; sets the tone for GBP/AUD |
| Wed 17 — UK CPI inflation (GBP) | Key BoE input, the day before the decision |
| Wed 17 — US retail sales + Fed decision & dot plot (USD) | Drives GBP/USD |
| Thu 18 — UK labour market (GBP) | Wage growth shapes the inflation outlook |
| Thu 18 — Bank of England decision, minutes & vote (GBP) | The week’s main event for the pound |
| Thu 18 — Swiss National Bank decision (CHF) | Sets the tone for GBP/CHF |
| Fri 19 — UK retail sales (GBP); Juneteenth, US closed | Consumer signal; thin USD liquidity |
Short-term outlook: what could happen this week?
Expect sharp moves around the Fed and BoE. As scenario ranges, not predictions:
- GBP/USD may trade roughly 1.32–1.36. A hawkish Fed could pull it lower; a hawkish BoE hold could push it higher.
- GBP/EUR may hold roughly 1.15–1.17, with risk tilted modestly lower given the freshly hawkish ECB.
As Anthony Bull, CEO of Cambridge Currencies, puts it: “When two major central banks report inside 24 hours, the level you see today matters far less than the headlines you can’t. For a confirmed payment, that is the whole argument for fixing a rate in advance.”
Beyond this week, the story is a closing rate gap: the ECB has started hiking while the Fed and BoE hold, and markets price the chance of further UK and eurozone rises if inflation persists — which keeps our house GBP/EUR range near 1.13–1.17 for the rest of 2026. See our GBP forecast for 2026 and US dollar forecast.
What this means for your transfers
- Buying euros (eurozone supplier, property, school fees): with the ECB hawkish, a weaker pound costs more. If your payment date is fixed, locking in removes the risk in one step.
- Buying dollars (US supplier, property, tuition): GBP/USD in the low 1.30s is firm by 2023–2024 standards but carries two-way risk into the Fed. A forward contract fixes today’s rate for up to 12 months.
- Selling into sterling (overseas income, repatriation): a limit order or rate alert lets you act at your target without watching the screen.
In our work with property buyers and businesses, the clients who feel least stressed around big central-bank weeks are those who decided their approach before the announcements. Head of Currency Will Stead often suggests splitting a transfer across tranches, or a forward contract on the portion you can’t leave exposed. Check live levels on our currency converter.
Frequently asked questions
Will the Bank of England raise interest rates on 18 June 2026?
A hold at 3.75% is widely expected. A Reuters poll in mid-June found all 65 economists surveyed expecting no change on 18 June, though nearly 40% anticipate at least one UK rate hike later in 2026 if inflation stays elevated. The vote split and minutes are likely to matter more for the pound than the headline decision.
What is the Fed expected to do on 17 June 2026?
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The bigger focus is the updated projections and “dot plot”, which will show whether war-driven inflation has pushed the projected 2026 rate path higher.
Where could GBP/EUR and GBP/USD trade this week?
As scenario ranges, GBP/USD may trade roughly 1.32–1.36 and GBP/EUR roughly 1.15–1.17 over the week of 15–19 June. The path depends on UK inflation on Wednesday and the tone of the Fed and Bank of England. These are ranges, not predictions.
Should I lock in a rate before the central bank decisions?
That depends on your payment date and your tolerance for risk. A forward contract fixes today’s rate for up to 12 months and removes the uncertainty around the Fed and BoE meetings; if you are targeting a better level, a limit order is an alternative. Speaking to a specialist about your specific transfer is the best way to weigh the options.
Speak to a specialist about your transfer
If you have a euro or dollar payment to make around this week’s Fed and Bank of England decisions, a short conversation can help you weigh whether to fix a rate now, split the transfer, or set a target. Request a free quote and a dedicated Cambridge Currencies specialist will call you back. Every transfer is handled personally by phone — not through an app — so you always speak to a real person who knows your situation. Cambridge Currencies works exclusively with FCA-authorised payment partners, Currencycloud and ScioPay, so your funds are always safeguarded.
Related guides
- GBP to USD forecast 2026: is now a good time to buy dollars?
- Pound to euro forecast 2026
- GBP to CAD forecast 2026
- All currency forecasts and weekly market analysis
Sources: European Central Bank monetary policy decision, 11 June 2026; Bank of England, Bank Rate; US Federal Reserve, FOMC calendar; Office for National Statistics, inflation; Reuters poll of economists, June 2026. Mid-market rates as of 14 June 2026, for general information only.
