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Home > Currency Forecasts > GBP to CAD Forecast 2026: Pound to Canadian Dollar Outlook

GBP to CAD Forecast 2026: Pound to Canadian Dollar Outlook

GBP to CAD is forecast at C$1.84–1.93 to end-December 2026 and C$1.81–1.94 to end-March 2027, with the Bank of Canada at 2.50% and Bank Rate at 4.00%.

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Direct answer: The GBP to CAD forecast is C$1.84–1.93 to the end of December 2026 and C$1.81–1.94 to the end of March 2027. The pound fixed at C$1.8797 on 5 November 2026, up 1.8% this year. Both central banks are now raising rates: the Bank of Canada to 2.50% on 28 October and the Bank of England to 4.00% on 5 November.
GBP to CAD forecast — pound to Canadian dollar outlook

What is the GBP to CAD exchange rate now?

On ECB euro reference rates, GBP/CAD was 1.8797 on 5 November 2026, almost unchanged from 1.8743 on 25 September. The 2026 high was 1.9032 on 7 July and the low was 1.8121 on 9 March, so the pound sits 1.2% below its high and 3.7% above its low. Check the live GBP to CAD rate at any time.

Right nowLevel
GBP/CAD (ECB, 5 November 2026)1.8797
CAD/GBP (ECB, 5 November 2026)0.5320
USD/CAD (derived, 5 November 2026)1.3966
Bank of Canada policy rate2.50% (raised 28 October 2026)
Bank of England Bank Rate4.00% (raised 5 November 2026)
Next Bank of Canada decision9 December 2026
Next Bank of England decision17 December 2026

GBP/CAD exchange rate in 2026: month by month

Date (ECB fixing)GBP/CAD (C$ per £1)
2 January 20261.8462
30 January 20261.8610
27 February 20261.8417
9 March 2026 (year low)1.8121
31 March 20261.8452
30 April 20261.8463
29 May 20261.8535
30 June 20261.8822
7 July 2026 (year high)1.9032
31 July 20261.8845
31 August 20261.8800
25 September 20261.8743
5 November 20261.8797

GBP/CAD has stayed within a 5% band all year, making it one of the calmer sterling pairs. Since late September both the pound and the Canadian dollar have gained against the US dollar (USD/CAD has fallen from about 1.41 to 1.40), so GBP/CAD has barely moved.

What is driving the pound against the Canadian dollar?

The Bank of Canada has started raising rates

After holding at 2.25% through the first six announcements of 2026, the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 28 October. It said “CPI inflation has been around 3% since April and is expected to rise to about 3½% by the end of the year”, while “measures of core inflation remain close to 2%”. On guidance, it said “there could be a need to increase the policy rate further”, but signalled it would move carefully.

Growth has been firmer than expected: the Bank cited GDP growth of 3.3% in the second quarter and about 2% in the third. It also expects growth to slow in the fourth quarter “owing to new US tariffs”, before picking up in 2027. That mix, with inflation rising but tariffs weighing on activity, is why the Bank of Canada is likely to move slowly.

The rate gap still favours the pound

DateBank RateBank of CanadaGap in the pound’s favour
1 January 20263.75%2.25%1.50 points
28 October 20263.75%2.50%1.25 points
5 November 2026 onwards4.00%2.50%1.50 points

The two rises cancelled out: the gap is back at 1.50 points, where it started the year. That steady gap is a support for the pound rather than a source of swings. What moves GBP/CAD next is which central bank raises again first.

The Bank of England has raised rates

The Bank of England raised Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00% on 5 November 2026 in an 8–1 vote, with Catherine Mann voting for 4.25%. It was the first rise in three years. UK CPI was 3.5% in September and the Bank expects it to reach about 5% by mid-2027. Governor Andrew Bailey warned against reading the move as the first of a long sequence, though several members see a near-term case for more. The next decision is on 17 December; see our Bank of England rate decision tracker.

Oil and the US dollar

Canada is a major oil exporter, so higher oil prices tend to support the Canadian dollar, and the Bank of Canada notes the Middle East conflict “is now in its eighth month and there is no clear path to resolution”. The Canadian dollar also tracks the US dollar closely. GBP/CAD is roughly GBP/USD multiplied by USD/CAD: our GBP/USD forecast of 1.32–1.37 to year-end, with USD/CAD around 1.39–1.41, is consistent with GBP/CAD of about 1.84–1.93.

What is the GBP to CAD forecast for the next 6 months?

HorizonGBP/CAD rangeMain driver
To end December 20261.84–1.93Bank of Canada on 9 December; Bank of England on 17 December
To end March 20271.81–1.94Whether either bank raises again in early 2027; oil prices
Next 6 months (to May 2027)1.81–1.94US tariffs and the Canadian recovery
2027 as a whole1.79–1.96Which central bank stops first

Cambridge Currencies’ forecast ranges as at 8 November 2026, anchored on the 5 November ECB fixing. They are not guarantees, and rates may move outside them. This page is reviewed every four to eight weeks and after Bank of Canada and Bank of England decisions.

Our September ranges (1.84–1.91 over three months, 1.82–1.93 over six) have held, and spot remains near their middle. The new year-end range of 1.84–1.93 leans slightly higher from spot because the 1.50-point rate gap still favours the pound and the Bank of Canada has signalled it will move cautiously.

For GBP/CAD to break above the July high of 1.9032, the Bank of England would probably need to raise again while the Bank of Canada pauses, or tariffs would need to hit Canadian growth harder than expected.

For GBP/CAD to fall back towards 1.84, it would probably take a second Bank of Canada rise on 9 December or a sustained rise in oil prices.

Is the Canadian dollar getting stronger against the pound?

Not this year. The pound is 1.8% higher against the Canadian dollar than on 2 January. The Canadian dollar has firmed against the US dollar since September, helped by the Bank of Canada’s rise, but the pound has firmed too. A sustained Canadian dollar rally would probably need the Bank of Canada to keep raising while the Bank of England stops at 4.00%, or a further jump in oil prices.

What is the CAD to GBP forecast?

The CAD to GBP forecast is the same forecast turned round. At 1.8797, one Canadian dollar buys about £0.53. Our year-end range of 1.84–1.93 is equivalent to one Canadian dollar buying between about £0.5181 and £0.5435. See the live CAD to GBP rate.

What does the GBP/CAD forecast mean for your transfer?

Moving to Canada

Illustrative: £300,000 converted atCanadian dollars receivedDifference vs 5 November
1.84 (bottom of year-end range)C$552,000−C$11,910
1.8797 (5 November 2026)C$563,910—
1.93 (top of year-end range)C$579,000+C$15,090

In this illustrative example the year-end range spans C$27,000 on £300,000. Our guides to moving to Canada from the UK and buying property in Canada cover the rules and timing.

UK pensions paid in Canada

GOV.UK confirms that “you cannot get a yearly increase in your UK State Pension” if you live in Canada. With the sterling amount frozen, an illustrative £1,000 monthly payment converts to C$1,840 at 1.84 and C$1,930 at 1.93, a difference of C$1,080 a year. Our UK pension abroad currency guide covers regular transfers.

Fixing a rate with a forward contract

Because UK rates are above Canadian rates, a GBP/CAD forward rate sits below spot. On current policy rates the difference is roughly 1.5% a year before any margin, so fixing 12 months ahead costs some Canadian dollars in exchange for certainty. A forward contract can still suit a fixed deadline such as a property closing, and our explainer on why the forward rate differs from spot shows the calculation.

Bringing Canadian dollars back to the UK

For returning expats and anyone selling Canadian assets, the pound’s rise this year means fewer pounds per Canadian dollar than in March. A rate alert at your target level lets you act quickly if the Canadian dollar strengthens, and our page on sending money from Canada to the UK explains the process.

Key dates for GBP/CAD

DateEventWhy it matters
18 November 2026UK CPI (October)Sets the odds of a second UK rise in December
8–9 December 2026Federal Reserve decisionMoves both currencies against the US dollar
9 December 2026Bank of Canada decisionA second rise would narrow the gap
17 December 2026Bank of England decisionLast UK decision of 2026
27 January 2027Bank of Canada decisionFirst Canadian decision of 2027
4 February 2027Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy ReportNew UK forecasts
3 and 18 March 2027Bank of Canada; Bank of EnglandShape the end-March range

GBP/CAD frequently asked questions

What is the GBP to CAD forecast for 2026?

GBP/CAD is forecast between 1.84 and 1.93 to the end of December 2026 and between 1.81 and 1.94 to the end of March 2027. It fixed at 1.8797 on 5 November 2026.

What is the Bank of Canada interest rate now?

The Bank of Canada’s policy rate is 2.50%, after a 25 basis point rise on 28 October 2026, its first move of the year. The next decision is on 9 December 2026.

Why is the Canadian dollar weak against the pound?

Canadian interest rates are 1.50 points below UK rates, and US tariffs are expected to slow Canadian growth in the fourth quarter. That gap rewards holding pounds over Canadian dollars, although the Bank of Canada’s October rise shows it is prepared to act on inflation.

Is now a good time to buy Canadian dollars?

The pound is in the upper half of its 2026 range, so Canadian dollars are cheaper in sterling than in the spring. Our year-end range leans slightly higher from spot. Whether to act depends on your deadline and how much risk you can accept around the 9 and 17 December decisions. This is general guidance, not a personal recommendation.

Does the UK State Pension increase in Canada?

No. GOV.UK states that you cannot get a yearly increase in your UK State Pension if you live in Canada, so the exchange rate has a large effect on its local value over time.

How long does a GBP to CAD transfer take?

GBP to CAD transfers usually arrive within one to two working days. Toronto is five hours behind the UK and Vancouver eight, so a UK morning payment can often be credited the same Canadian business day.

Speak to a specialist about your Canadian dollar transfer

Whether you are emigrating, buying property or receiving a UK pension in Canada, every Cambridge Currencies transfer is handled by phone with a dedicated specialist, from £5,000 upwards. Get a quote for your Canadian dollar transfer, or see all our currency forecasts. We work with FCA-authorised payment partners Currencycloud (FRN 900199) and ScioPay (FRN 927951), with client funds safeguarded. This article is general guidance, not a personal recommendation.

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