GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.3100 and 1.3400 in the week of 16 November 2026, GBP/EUR between 1.1850 and 1.2075 and EUR/USD between 1.0950 and 1.1200. The dollar gained around 1.4% against both the pound and the euro in three days, after a Federal Reserve governor set a public condition for a half-point December rise and the inflation data met it hours later.
What happened to the dollar last week?
The dollar rallied hard from Wednesday onwards, taking the euro to its weakest level against it in nineteen months.
| ECB reference rate | 6 November | 13 November | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | 1.3385 | 1.3227 | −1.18% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1988 | 1.1968 | −0.17% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1165 | 1.1052 | −1.01% |
The weekly figures understate it, because the move was concentrated in three fixings. GBP/USD fixed at 1.3423 on Tuesday and 1.3227 on Friday, a fall of 1.46%. EUR/USD went 1.1214 to 1.1052 over the same three days, down 1.44%. At 1.1052 the euro is at its lowest ECB fixing since 9 April 2025, when it fixed at 1.1045.
Sterling’s position is worth separating out. Against the euro it barely moved, down 0.17% and still within two-tenths of a cent of the nineteen-month high it reached a fortnight ago. This was not a weak week for the pound but a strong week for the dollar, with the pound on the other side of it.
Will the dollar rate increase next week?
That depends on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes, but the case for a December rise strengthened last week in an unusually public way.
On Tuesday, hours before the US inflation release, Fed Governor Christopher Waller spoke in London at the Bank of England Watchers Conference and told the audience: “Inconveniently for today’s event, we will get consumer price index (CPI) inflation for October in a few hours.” He then set out what the data would have to show.
His words were: “But if the October CPI inflation data out later today are similar to the past two monthly readings—with core CPI inflation around 0.3 percent or even higher—then a stronger policy move may be needed.” And: “In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.”
Core CPI then rose 0.3% in October, and the release states it did so “as it did in September and August” — matching both halves of his condition precisely. A sitting governor published a numerical trigger for a half-point move and the print hit it the same morning. That is why the dollar moved on Wednesday rather than Tuesday.
Waller’s base case is still smaller: he is “leaning toward supporting an increase in our policy rate of 25 basis points at the FOMC’s December meeting.” Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, speaking the same day, was more guarded, repeating that “monetary policy is not on a preset course”, listing “a stronger dollar” among the forces already tightening financial conditions, and reading the day’s figures as suggesting “12-month core PCE inflation likely moved up further to 3.3 percent.”
Wednesday’s minutes of the 28 October meeting are the week’s main event for the dollar: that is the meeting where two members already voted to raise. Our US dollar outlook sets out the longer path; the decision itself is 8–9 December.
Why has the US not published an annual inflation rate?
Because the comparison month does not exist. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not collect October 2025 prices during the lapse in appropriations, so it “cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable.”
There is therefore no headline annual US inflation rate for October, and no annual core rate either. The monthly figures are all that exist: all items up 0.4% after 0.6% in September, core up 0.3%, energy up 0.7% after a 5.2% rise, and shelter up 0.3%, “accounting for over thirty percent of the monthly all items increase.”
This matters for anyone timing a transfer. The year-on-year figure normally anchors expectations, and this month there is nothing to anchor to, which leaves the market trading monthly prints and Fed speeches instead. The one hard annual reading the US did get came from producer prices, up 6.5% in the twelve months to October and 4.9% excluding foods, energy and trade services. The next CPI release is 10 December, the day after the Fed decides.
What is the pound forecast next week?
GBP/USD may hold a 1.3100 to 1.3400 range and GBP/EUR a 1.1850 to 1.2075 range, with UK labour market data on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday.
Last week delivered the one thing the Bank of England needed after raising Bank Rate to 4%. UK GDP “increased by 0.7% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2026”, exactly the figure the Bank’s own November report had projected, after 0.5% in the second quarter. Growth “was mainly caused by a 0.9% increase in the services sector”, production added 0.1% and construction fell 0.7%.
A central bank that raises rates on a growth forecast and is then handed that exact number has its argument validated. Wednesday’s inflation reading is the test of the other half: September CPI was 3.5%, and the Bank expects it to reach around 5% by the middle of next year. Our pound outlook and the Bank of England decision page carry the detail; the next vote is 17 December.
GBP/EUR and EUR/USD forecast
EUR/USD may trade between 1.0950 and 1.1200. The euro is the weakest of the three majors and has the least happening to change that.
Germany confirmed its October inflation at 2.8%, with energy prices “up 12.2% compared with October 2025” but core inflation down to 2.1% from 2.4% in each of the three previous months. A softening core in the currency area’s largest economy, against a 2.50% deposit rate and a Governing Council that does not meet until 17 December, leaves the euro with a 150 basis point disadvantage to sterling and no catalyst to close it.
Christine Lagarde speaks three times this week, on Wednesday afternoon, Thursday lunchtime and Friday morning. Our pound to euro forecast, the euro outlook and the EUR/USD forecast set out the medium-term view, and the live converter shows the mid-market rate now.
The economic calendar this week at a glance
| Day | Key events (UK times) | Currency | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 16 Nov | Chinese industrial production and retail sales (02:00); ECB’s Vujčić (08:15); euro area industrial output (10:00); Fed’s Barr (10:00); Canadian CPI and NY Empire State index (13:30); Fed’s Williams (14:05); Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh speech (17:00) | USD | The Chair’s own read, three weeks before the decision |
| Tue 17 Nov | RBA minutes (00:30); UK labour market: unemployment, claimant count, average earnings (07:00); German ZEW (10:00); US retail sales (13:30); Fed’s Waller (14:10); US industrial production (14:15); Fed’s Hammack (14:30); ECB’s Lane (18:30) | GBP / USD | Waller speaks again, two days after setting his trigger |
| Wed 18 Nov | UK CPI, core CPI, PPI and RPI (07:00); euro area final HICP (10:00); US housing starts and building permits (13:30); ECB President Lagarde (14:25); FOMC minutes (19:00) | GBP / USD | The week’s two biggest releases, twelve hours apart |
| Thu 19 Nov | Euro area current account (09:00); ECB’s Elderson (10:00); Bundesbank monthly report (11:00); Lagarde again (13:30); US jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed survey (13:30); Fed’s Goolsbee (17:30); Japanese CPI (23:30) | EUR / USD | A quieter day for data, heavy on central bank voices |
| Fri 20 Nov | GfK consumer confidence (00:01); PBoC decision (01:15); UK retail sales and public sector borrowing (07:00); Lagarde (08:30); ECB’s Nagel (13:00); Fed’s Waller (13:25); euro area consumer confidence (15:00); final Michigan sentiment (15:00) | GBP / USD | UK consumer strength, then US inflation expectations |
What is the three to twelve month outlook?
Three decisions remain this year: the Federal Reserve on 8–9 December with projections, the ECB on 16–17 December and the Bank of England on 17 December without a report.
Sterling’s advantage over the euro rests on a 150 basis point gap that nothing this quarter is likely to narrow, and GBP/EUR sits near the top of the 1.16 to 1.21 three-month band on our currency forecast hub. Against the dollar the position reverses: Bank Rate’s 12.5 basis point edge over the Fed midpoint disappears if December delivers a US rise, and a half-point move would put US rates clearly above UK rates again. A hot UK inflation print, hawkish Fed minutes, or both, could each move a major pair by more than a cent, and a forecast is a framework for planning rather than a statement of where any rate sits on a given day.
What does this mean for your currency transfer?
Across this week’s GBP/USD range, converting £500,000 into dollars at 1.3400 rather than 1.3100 gives $670,000 against $655,000 — $15,000 on a single payment. Coming the other way, $500,000 converts to about £381,700 at 1.3100 and £373,100 at 1.3400, a gap of roughly £8,550.
Last week is a reminder that the moves which matter are rarely the scheduled ones. The Bank of England’s rate rise a fortnight ago was fully priced and moved sterling by a tenth of a percent; a remark in a London lecture theatre, combined with one monthly data point, moved the dollar by nearly a cent and a half in three days. A forward contract fixes today’s rate for settlement up to twelve months ahead, which suits a requirement you already know about. A market order targets a level you would be content to trade at and executes if the market reaches it.
Frequently asked questions
Will the dollar rate increase next week?
EUR/USD may trade between 1.0950 and 1.1200 and GBP/USD between 1.3100 and 1.3400 in the week of 16 November 2026. The dollar’s direction turns on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes and Tuesday’s US retail sales, after a week in which it gained around 1.4% against both the pound and the euro. Markets are weighing a December rise that one governor has said could be a half point rather than a quarter.
Why is the pound falling against the dollar?
It is mostly the dollar rising rather than the pound falling. Sterling fell 1.18% against the dollar last week but only 0.17% against the euro, and UK third-quarter growth came in at 0.7%, matching the Bank of England’s own projection. The move followed US inflation data that met a condition a Federal Reserve governor had publicly set for a larger December rate rise.
Why is there no US annual inflation rate for October 2026?
Because October 2025 prices were never collected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics says it “cannot publish 12-month percent changes for October 2026 for indexes where October 2025 data are unavailable”, a consequence of the lapse in appropriations. Only the monthly changes exist for October 2026: all items rose 0.4% and core rose 0.3%. A handful of individual categories where 2025 data survived do carry annual rates.
What is the UK interest rate now?
Bank Rate is 4%, raised from 3.75% on 5 November 2026 by a majority of eight to one. The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate is 2.50% and the Federal Reserve’s target range is 3.75–4.00%, a midpoint of 3.875%. The next UK decision is 17 December, with no Monetary Policy Report attached.
What is the minimum transfer Cambridge Currencies handles?
Cambridge Currencies works with transfers from £5,000 upwards, at competitive rates compared with high-street banks. Every transaction is completed by phone with a dedicated specialist, and the firm operates with FCA-authorised partners Currencycloud and ScioPay.
Speak to a specialist about a stronger dollar
A dollar requirement priced a fortnight ago looks different this morning, and that matters if you have a US completion, a supplier invoice or a dollar income to bring home. Speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist about your dollar transfer, or call 01223 608232. Every transfer is handled personally, over the phone, by a dedicated dealer who knows your deadline.
Related guides
- Weekly currency forecast archive — published every Sunday
- GBP/USD forecast — the longer view on sterling against the dollar
- Is now a good time to buy euros? — weighing a high against a deadline
Sources: BLS — Consumer Price Index, October 2026; BLS — Producer Price Index, October 2026; ONS — GDP first quarterly estimate, July to September 2026; ONS — Consumer price inflation, September 2026; Federal Reserve — Governor Christopher J. Waller, 10 November 2026; Federal Reserve — Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle W. Bowman, 10 November 2026; Federal Reserve — Board membership; Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar; Destatis — German consumer prices, October 2026; Bank of England — upcoming MPC dates; ECB — Governing Council meeting calendar; ECB — euro foreign exchange reference rates. Release timings and speaker diaries are as scheduled at the time of writing and can change.
