The US dollar starts the week at a three-month low against the euro, and the two events most likely to move it land in the same minute: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole keynote and the BLS payrolls benchmark revision, both at 15:00 BST on Friday 28 August. GBP/USD is forecast between 1.34 and 1.38, GBP/EUR between 1.16 and 1.18, and EUR/USD between 1.15 and 1.19.
On Friday 21 August the European Central Bank’s reference rates put the euro at 1.1699 dollars and 0.85670 pounds, implying roughly 1.3656 on GBP/USD and 1.1673 on GBP/EUR. Sterling gained about 1.2 cents against the dollar over the week while barely moving against the euro. Check the live level on our currency converter.
Will the dollar rise or fall next week?
The dollar could stabilise if Warsh signals on Friday that the Federal Reserve is prepared to raise rates, and could extend its decline if he says little or if the payrolls benchmark revision is sharply negative. There is no scheduled UK data at all this week, so GBP/USD is close to a pure dollar story.
What pushed the dollar down last week was not a Fed decision. On 19 August the US Treasury announced it would raise the maximum size of its liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, beginning 9 September. Reuters reported the dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro as traders read the move through a fiscal lens rather than a liquidity one.
A currency weakening on its own government’s debt-management decision is an unusual driver, and it is worth naming plainly: this was a bond-market story that became an FX story. It also means the usual playbook — trade the rate differential — matters less this week than it normally would.
What happened to the pound last week?
UK inflation rose but the detail was softer than the headline. The Office for National Statistics reported on 19 August that CPI rose 2.9% in the 12 months to July, up from 2.6% in June. Core CPI was unchanged at 2.6%, and services inflation — the measure the Monetary Policy Committee watches most closely — eased from 3.6% to 3.4%.
The labour market data on 18 August pulled the other way. Unemployment held at 4.9% for April to June, payrolled employees fell by 78,000 over the year to June, and vacancies slipped to 707,000. Regular pay growth ticked up to 3.5%. Retail sales volumes then fell 0.5% in July, though they were still 1.6% higher than a year earlier.
The one clearly hawkish signal came from the flash PMIs on 21 August. The UK composite output index rose to 52.5 from 52.2, and S&P Global reported that input cost inflation accelerated for the first time in four months, with output price inflation rising after July’s five-month low. That is the kind of survey detail that keeps three MPC members voting for 4.00%.
What is on the economic calendar for 24 to 28 August 2026?
The week is back-loaded. Monday and Tuesday are quiet, Wednesday carries the US inflation figure, and Friday carries everything else. All times are British Summer Time.
| Day | Time | Release | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 25 | 09:00 | German Ifo business climate | Leading read on the eurozone’s largest economy |
| Tuesday 25 | 15:00 | US consumer confidence | Sentiment check before the inflation data |
| Wednesday 26 | 13:30 | US core PCE price index (July) | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge |
| Wednesday 26 | 13:30 | US Q2 GDP, second estimate; durable goods | Released alongside PCE by the BEA |
| Thursday 27 | 12:30 | ECB accounts of the July meeting | How close the Governing Council is to moving |
| Thursday 27 | 13:30 | US initial jobless claims | Weekly labour market read |
| Thursday 27 | — | Jackson Hole symposium opens | Runs 27–29 August |
| Friday 28 | 10:00 | Eurozone economic sentiment; first August inflation flashes | Euro-area momentum and price pressure |
| Friday 28 | 15:00 | Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote | His first as Fed Chair |
| Friday 28 | 15:00 | BLS preliminary payrolls benchmark revision | Restates US job growth to March 2026 |
The clash at 15:00 on Friday is the detail most calendars miss. The Kansas City Fed’s symposium keynote and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision are scheduled for 10:00 Eastern Time on the same day. One is a speech about policy direction; the other restates how many jobs the US economy actually created in the year to March 2026. Both hit at once, into thin late-August liquidity.
GBP/USD forecast: what range is realistic this week?
GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.34 and 1.38 this week, a wider band than usual because Friday concentrates the risk into a single hour rather than spreading it across the week.
The July FOMC minutes, published on 19 August, showed several participants judged the Committee should adopt a more restrictive stance, and that policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline. Those minutes were written before the 7 August payrolls report showed employment falling by 23,000, so they read as more hawkish than the data that followed them. Wednesday’s core PCE and Friday’s benchmark revision are what update that picture.
Warsh was sworn in as Fed Chair in May 2026, and this is his first Jackson Hole in the role. Markets have no long record of how he communicates as Chair, which is itself a reason to expect a wider reaction than a routine keynote would produce. For the medium-term view see our GBP/USD forecast, the dollar index outlook and our Federal Reserve decision tracker.
GBP/EUR forecast: what range is realistic this week?
GBP/EUR is forecast to hold between 1.16 and 1.18. With no UK releases scheduled, the pair has no domestic catalyst, and the rate differential — Bank Rate at 3.75% against the ECB’s 2.25% deposit rate — continues to anchor it.
The euro side is the more interesting half. Euro-area inflation was 2.9% in July, above the ECB’s 2% target, while the Governing Council has held rates since June and has said it is not pre-committing to a rate path. Thursday’s accounts of that July meeting are the closest thing to a policy signal the euro gets this week. Our pound to euro forecast covers the longer horizon, and the Bank of England decision page tracks the UK side.
EUR/USD forecast: can the euro hold its three-month high?
EUR/USD is forecast to trade between 1.15 and 1.19. The euro is strong for a reason that has little to do with the eurozone: the dollar’s own weakness. That makes the pair vulnerable to a reversal if Warsh sounds firmer on inflation than expected. Our euro to dollar forecast sets out the six-month view, and is now a good time to buy euros? covers the buyer’s side of it.
What does this mean for your currency transfer?
Last week gives a clean measure of what a quiet week costs or earns you. GBP/USD moved from roughly 1.3537 to 1.3656 — 1.19 cents. On a £500,000 transfer that is $5,950, gained or lost by nothing more than which day you dealt.
The week ahead has more in it. Across the forecast band, £500,000 converted at an illustrative 1.38 rather than 1.34 is $690,000 versus $670,000 — a $20,000 difference. On the euro side, £300,000 at an illustrative 1.18 rather than 1.16 is €354,000 versus €348,000, a €6,000 gap.
The practical point is the timing of Friday. If your transfer needs to settle this week and you would rather not be exposed to a single 15:00 event, dealing before Friday afternoon removes that specific risk. If you are selling a UK property to fund a purchase abroad, the sequencing matters more than the level — our guide to managing currency on UK sale proceeds covers that case, and should I buy US dollars now? covers the dollar side.
How can you manage timing risk around a single event?
- Forward contracts fix today’s rate for a future settlement date, typically against a deposit of 5–10% of the contract value. They take Friday out of the equation entirely. See how forward contracts work for private clients.
- Market orders execute automatically at a level you set, which suits anyone with no fixed deadline who wants to be filled if a spike goes their way. A stop-loss caps the downside on the same position — both are explained in our guide to stop-loss and market orders.
- Splitting the amount across two or three tranches averages your rate. In a week where one hour carries most of the risk, splitting either side of that hour is the simplest way to avoid betting the whole sum on one outcome.
Margin remains the larger and more controllable cost. High-street banks typically apply 3–4% to a currency transfer; a specialist broker generally works on 0.2–1% depending on size. On £500,000 that gap is between £10,000 and £19,000 before the market has moved at all.
Frequently asked questions
Will the dollar rate increase next week?
The dollar could recover if Friday’s Jackson Hole keynote points to a firmer Federal Reserve stance on inflation, and could weaken further if it does not or if the payrolls benchmark revision is heavily negative. GBP/USD is forecast to stay within 1.34–1.38.
What is the US dollar forecast for this week?
The dollar is forecast to range-trade until Friday, with GBP/USD between 1.34 and 1.38 and EUR/USD between 1.15 and 1.19. It begins the week at a three-month low against the euro.
Why did the dollar fall last week?
The US Treasury announced on 19 August that it would at least double the size of its long-dated buyback operations, from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, starting 9 September. Reuters reported the dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro as traders focused on the fiscal implications.
What is the Jackson Hole symposium and why does it move currencies?
Jackson Hole is the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual economic policy symposium, held this year on 27–29 August under the theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”. Central bankers have historically used the platform to signal shifts in direction, which is why the Chair’s keynote is treated as a market event.
Is there any UK data this week?
No scheduled UK releases fall between 24 and 28 August. Sterling’s direction this week therefore depends on the dollar and the euro rather than on anything domestic.
Did UK inflation change the Bank of England outlook?
CPI rose to 2.9% in July from 2.6%, but core inflation was unchanged at 2.6% and services inflation eased to 3.4%. The MPC held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July by 6 votes to 3, with the minority preferring 4.00%. The next decision is on 17 September 2026.
Should I deal before Friday?
That depends on whether you can carry the risk. Two significant US events are scheduled for 15:00 BST on Friday, so a transfer settled earlier in the week avoids that specific exposure — at the cost of forgoing any move in your favour. A forward contract or a split transfer lets you take a position between the two.
Where can I see last week’s forecast?
Our forecast for the week of 17 August 2026 set a 1.33–1.37 band on GBP/USD, which held. Every edition is archived on the weekly currency forecast hub, published each Sunday.
Sources
- Office for National Statistics, Consumer price inflation, UK: July 2026 (19 August 2026)
- Office for National Statistics, Labour market overview, UK: August 2026 (18 August 2026)
- Office for National Statistics, Retail sales, Great Britain: July 2026 (21 August 2026)
- Federal Reserve, Minutes of the FOMC, 28–29 July 2026 (published 19 August 2026)
- US Department of the Treasury, Increased sizes of nominal long-end liquidity support buybacks (19 August 2026)
- Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium 2026
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics preliminary benchmark announcement
- Bureau of Economic Analysis, release schedule
- Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and minutes, July 2026
- S&P Global, Flash UK PMI, August 2026 (21 August 2026)
- Eurostat, euro area annual inflation, flash estimate for July 2026
- European Central Bank, euro foreign exchange reference rates
- Federal Reserve Board, chair transition announcement (15 May 2026)
Talk to a specialist before Friday afternoon
If your transfer settles this week, the question worth asking is whether you want to be holding an open position at 15:00 on Friday. Request a rate for your transfer and a Cambridge Currencies specialist will call you back to talk it through — every deal is booked by phone with the same named person, and the rate and margin are disclosed to you before anything is agreed.
