GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.3250 and 1.3550 in the week of 9 November 2026, GBP/EUR between 1.1875 and 1.2100 and EUR/USD between 1.1050 and 1.1300. The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% last Thursday and the pound barely moved. US inflation lands on Tuesday and UK third-quarter GDP on Thursday.
What happened to the pound last week?
The Bank of England raised interest rates for the first time this cycle, and sterling finished the week almost exactly where it started.
| ECB reference rate | 30 October | 6 November | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | 1.3399 | 1.3385 | −0.10% |
| GBP/EUR | 1.1993 | 1.1988 | −0.04% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1172 | 1.1165 | −0.06% |
That is the flattest week any of these pairs has had in months, and it covered a UK rate rise, US midterm elections and an American jobs report — the clearest demonstration this year that what moves a currency is not news but news the market had not already bought.
The decision itself was emphatic. “At its meeting ending on 4 November 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8–1 to increase Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.” The single dissenter, Catherine L Mann, wanted half a point. Nobody voted to hold: a committee that split six to three for no change in September arrived at near-unanimity seven weeks later.
The reasoning is unusually direct: “there remains limited evidence of knock-on effects on other prices and wages”, but “the degree of inflationary pressure in the pipeline is now sufficient to warrant an increase in Bank Rate.” The Summary also carries the figure that matters most for a transfer: “UK CPI inflation increased to 3.5% in September. It is now expected to rise to around 5% by the middle of next year.”
Sterling’s response was close to nothing: GBP/EUR rose 0.08% at the fixing after the decision and GBP/USD fell 0.30%. The week’s high for GBP/EUR, 1.1996, came on Tuesday — two days before the Bank acted, at an EUR/GBP fixing of 0.83358 that exactly matches the 28 March 2025 reading marking the pound’s nineteen-month high. The pound reached its ceiling in anticipation, then stopped.
Is this the start of a rate-rising cycle?
The Bank has not committed to one. The Summary says only that “Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path” and that the Committee “will adjust Bank Rate as necessary to ensure CPI inflation returns to the 2% target in the medium term.”
The arithmetic makes the pressure obvious. Bank Rate is 4% against September CPI of 3.5%, a real policy rate of half a percentage point. The Bank’s own November Monetary Policy Report projects CPI averaging 4.9% in the second quarter of 2027 — almost a full point above today’s Bank Rate. A central bank that forecasts 5% inflation and sets rates at 4% is not usually finished.
The minutes report the median path in the Bank’s own Market Participants Survey as “4% in November and 4.25% in February”: the market already expects one more, and Mann voted for it last week. Three Committee members speak within forty-eight hours this week — the Governor on Monday evening, Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli on Tuesday lunchtime, Chief Economist Huw Pill on Tuesday evening — and what they say about February is the likeliest source of a sterling move. Our Bank of England decision page tracks the dates; the next vote is 17 December.
What is the pound forecast next week?
GBP/EUR may hold a 1.1875 to 1.2100 range and GBP/USD a 1.3250 to 1.3550 range. Sterling has its yield advantage over both the euro and the dollar back, for the first time since mid-September.
At 4%, Bank Rate sits 150 basis points above the ECB’s 2.50% deposit rate, up from 125 before Thursday, and 12.5 basis points above the Federal Reserve’s 3.875% midpoint — reversing the position that held from mid-September, when the Fed’s increase put US rates above Bank Rate. That is the strongest footing the pound has had against both majors in months.
The test comes on Thursday with UK third-quarter GDP, alongside monthly GDP, industrial and manufacturing production and the trade balance. The Bank’s November report has growth at 0.5% in the second quarter and expects “0.7% in Q3”, so Thursday checks the Bank’s own forecast eight days after it raised rates on the strength of it. Our pound outlook carries the medium-term view.
The dollar: US inflation on Tuesday
EUR/USD may trade between 1.1050 and 1.1300. The dollar’s week is dominated by Tuesday’s consumer price index, the first inflation reading since the Federal Reserve held rates on 28 October with two members voting for a rise.
Friday’s jobs report gave those two dissenters more to work with. US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October and the unemployment rate “changed little at 4.1 percent”, but the revisions were the story: August was revised up 53,000 to +186,000 and September up 31,000 to +60,000, “combined 84,000 higher than previously reported”. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% to $38.00. The weak-payrolls narrative that framed the autumn has been revised away.
Consumers are less convinced. The preliminary November University of Michigan survey put sentiment at 51.0 from 48.0 in October, with year-ahead inflation expectations easing to 4.3% from 4.7% and the five-to-ten-year measure to 3.4% — both far above anything the Federal Reserve would call anchored. The next Fed decision is 8–9 December, with projections attached. Our GBP/USD forecast and the US dollar outlook set out the longer view.
GBP/EUR and EUR/USD forecast
The euro is now the lowest-yielding of the three majors by a clear margin, and the Governing Council has given itself nothing to point at.
The ECB held all three key rates on 29 October, warning that “Energy prices have continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook”. The following morning German inflation fell to 2.8% in October from 3.3%, energy inflation down from 14.9% to 12.2%. Germany’s final figures land on Wednesday; if 2.8% is confirmed, the currency area’s largest economy is running a full point below the ECB’s stated concern.
That leaves a 150 basis point gap to Bank Rate and a Governing Council that does not meet again until 17 December. Christine Lagarde speaks on Wednesday morning and Thursday evening, and euro area third-quarter GDP arrives on Friday. Our pound to euro forecast, the euro outlook and the EUR/USD forecast carry the detail, and the live converter shows the mid-market rate now.
The economic calendar this week at a glance
| Day | Key events (UK times) | Currency | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9 Nov | Chinese CPI (01:30); euro area trade balance and Eurogroup meeting (07:00); Sentix investor confidence (09:30); Fed’s Bowman (13:40), Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15); BoE Governor Bailey speech (17:25) | GBP / USD | Bailey’s first scheduled remarks since the rate rise |
| Tue 10 Nov | BRC shop price index (00:01); Chinese trade (03:00); Fed’s Waller (09:00); UK 30-year gilt auction (10:30); BoE’s Lombardelli (12:30); US CPI, headline and core (13:30); ECB’s Lane (16:45); BoE’s Pill (18:30) | USD / GBP | The week’s biggest release, between two MPC speakers |
| Wed 11 Nov | German final CPI and HICP for October (07:00); ECB’s Cipollone (07:50) and Nagel (08:15); euro area industrial output (09:00); ECB President Lagarde (09:45); US Veterans Day | EUR | Confirms or revises Germany’s fall to 2.8%; thin US liquidity |
| Thu 12 Nov | RICS house price balance (00:01); UK Q3 GDP, monthly GDP, industrial and manufacturing production, trade (07:00); ECB Economic Bulletin (09:00); US jobless claims (13:30); Fed’s Hammack (14:00); Lagarde again (19:30) | GBP / EUR | A direct test of the Bank’s own 0.7% Q3 growth estimate |
| Fri 13 Nov | EU leaders summit; French and Spanish final CPI (07:45–08:00); euro area Q3 GDP and employment (10:00); NIESR GDP estimate (12:00); US producer prices (13:30); Fed’s Bowman (15:50) and Daly (17:00) | EUR / USD | Euro area growth, then the second US inflation reading of the week |
What is the three to twelve month outlook for the pound?
There is one scheduled decision left from each major central bank this year: the Federal Reserve on 8–9 December with projections, the ECB on 16–17 December and the Bank of England on 17 December without a report.
Sterling’s improvement since early September was built on data and is now backed by a rate rise, which makes it more durable than a sentiment move. But the pound is no longer cheap against the euro: at 1.1988 it sits in the middle of the 1.18 to 1.22 end-December band on our currency forecast hub, and good news now needs to beat expectations rather than merely arrive. The Bank also confirmed gilts held for monetary policy of £362 billion on 4 November, so the balance sheet is shrinking alongside the rate rise. A forecast is a framework for planning rather than a statement of where any rate sits on a given day.
What does this mean for your currency transfer?
Across this week’s ranges, converting £500,000 to euros at a GBP/EUR of 1.2100 rather than 1.1875 gives €605,000 against €593,750 — €11,250 on one payment. For anyone bringing dollars into sterling, $500,000 converts to about £377,400 at 1.3250 and £369,000 at 1.3550, a gap of roughly £8,350.
Anyone who waited for the Bank of England expecting a rate rise to lift the pound got a quarter-point increase and a tenth of a percent of movement: fully expected events are already in the rate you are quoted today. A forward contract fixes today’s rate for settlement up to twelve months ahead, which suits a known requirement you would rather not test again on Thursday. A market order targets a level you would be content to trade at and executes if the market reaches it.
Frequently asked questions
Why did the pound not rise when the Bank of England raised rates?
Because the increase was expected. GBP/EUR moved 0.08% at the fixing after the decision, GBP/USD fell 0.30%, and the pound’s high for the week came two days before the vote. A quarter-point rise the Bank’s own Market Participants Survey had already pencilled in was in the price before it happened — the normal pattern for well-signalled decisions, and the main argument against timing a transfer around a scheduled announcement.
Will the Bank of England raise interest rates again?
The Committee states only that “Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path”. On the record: one member voted for half a point last week, the Bank projects CPI inflation averaging 4.9% in the second quarter of 2027 against a Bank Rate of 4%, and its own Market Participants Survey median path was “4% in November and 4.25% in February”. The next decision is 17 December.
What is the UK interest rate now?
Bank Rate is 4%, raised from 3.75% on 5 November 2026 by a majority of eight to one. The European Central Bank’s deposit facility rate is 2.50% and the Federal Reserve’s target range is 3.75–4.00%, a midpoint of 3.875%.
Should I convert before or after Thursday’s UK GDP figures?
That depends on your deadline rather than on a forecast, and waiting is a position rather than a neutral choice. Thursday brings third-quarter GDP against a Bank estimate of 0.7% growth, so a figure materially above or below that is the kind of surprise that does move a rate — unlike a decision everybody saw coming. If your payment falls this week, the question is how much movement you could absorb.
What is the minimum transfer Cambridge Currencies handles?
Cambridge Currencies works with transfers from £5,000 upwards, at competitive rates compared with high-street banks. Every transaction is completed by phone with a dedicated specialist, and the firm operates with FCA-authorised partners Currencycloud and ScioPay.
Speak to a specialist about a higher Bank Rate
A 4% Bank Rate changes the forward pricing on a euro or dollar requirement, which matters if you have a completion or a supplier schedule in the coming months. Speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist about what the rate rise means for your transfer, or call 01223 608232. Every transfer is handled personally, over the phone, by a dedicated dealer who knows your deadline.
Related guides
- Weekly currency forecast archive — published every Sunday
- Is now a good time to buy euros? — weighing a nineteen-month high against a deadline
Sources: Bank of England — November 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes; Bank of England — Monetary Policy Report, November 2026; Bank of England — upcoming MPC dates; BLS — Employment Situation, October 2026; University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers, preliminary November 2026; Destatis — German consumer prices, October 2026; European Central Bank — monetary policy decisions, 29 October 2026; Federal Reserve — FOMC statement, 28 October 2026; Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar; ECB — Governing Council meeting calendar; ONS — Consumer price inflation, September 2026; ECB — euro foreign exchange reference rates. Release timings and speaker diaries are as scheduled at the time of writing and can change.
