Dollars to Pounds Forecast: Week of 12 October 2026 — US CPI and the Fed’s Last Word

GBP/USD is forecast to trade between 1.3100 and 1.3400 in the week of 12 to 16 October 2026, GBP/EUR between 1.1700 and 1.1900 and EUR/USD between 1.1100 and 1.1350. US consumer price inflation lands on Wednesday at 13:30 and US retail sales on Thursday at 13:30. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks on Thursday afternoon — the last scheduled Fed comment before the 28 October decision.

What happened to the pound last week?

Against the dollar, almost nothing. Against the euro, quite a lot.

The headline is in the middle row. GBP/EUR fixed at 1.1814 on 7 October — its highest ECB reference rate since 10 June 2025, a sixteen-month high. GBP/USD, meanwhile, ended three weeks of decline and went sideways.

Sterling did not earn that. The euro lost it. EUR/USD touched $1.1160 on Monday, its weakest since May 2025, as French borrowing costs reached their highest level since 2002 on concern about France’s fiscal position. MUFG, writing on 8 October, put it plainly: “Negative development in the euro-zone have boosted the relative appeal of the pound.”

Why a sixteen-month high matters more than it sounds

Because almost all the coverage is about the dollar, and the euro is where the opportunity has quietly appeared. Take a £400,000 transfer: at the 7 October fix of 1.1814 it bought €472,560, against €464,880 a fortnight earlier at 1.1622 — €7,680 more for the same money, with no UK news in between. For anyone funding a property purchase in Spain this autumn, that is the whole story of the last two weeks.

The same logic runs the other way on the dollar. GBP/USD has fallen from 1.3508 on 11 September to 1.3220 on 9 October, which has cost UK buyers of dollars — but handed about £8,000 to anyone converting $500,000 into pounds over the same month. Our guide to exchanging dollars to pounds covers that direction, and the USA to UK transfer page the mechanics.

Will the dollar go up this week?

Wednesday decides it. GBP/USD may trade broadly between 1.3100 and 1.3400.

September US consumer price inflation is published on Wednesday at 13:30. In August the all items index rose 0.4% on the month and 3.4% over twelve months, with core inflation at 2.4%. The direction of travel in the surveys is not reassuring: the ISM Services Prices Index rose to 74.0% in September from 72.6% in August, and services is where most US core inflation lives.

Thursday brings retail sales and producer prices together at 13:30. After a September jobs report that showed payrolls up just 29,000, the market is watching whether the US consumer is still spending. Our GBP/USD forecast and the dollar index outlook carry the medium-term picture.

The Fed’s own minutes are already out of date — and this is its last week to say so

The minutes of the 15–16 September FOMC meeting, published on 7 October, record that “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate” and that “many participants emphasized that a higher path for the target range would be prudent on risk-management grounds”. They also record this: “Participants generally viewed the upside and downside risks to the labor market as broadly balanced.”

That judgement was formed on 16 September. Since then payrolls have come in at 29,000, unemployment has risen to 4.2%, and July has been revised to a fall of 10,000. The hawkish language in those minutes rests on a labour market read the Committee no longer has in front of it.

Which makes this week’s timing unusual. The Fed’s communications policy states that the blackout period “will begin at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time the second Saturday before a meeting”, during which participants “refrain from expressing their views about macroeconomic developments or monetary policy issues”. For a meeting on 27–28 October, that is Saturday 17 October. Chair Warsh speaks on Thursday at 16:30, with Waller, Bowman and Hammack also scheduled — the last Fed commentary before the decision.

What does the UK have to offer this week?

One data release and five Monetary Policy Committee members. The August monthly GDP estimate arrives on Thursday at 07:00, with industrial production, manufacturing production and the trade figures. July grew 0.4% on the month, following 0.3% in June.

Sarah Breeden speaks Monday and Thursday, Catherine L Mann on Monday afternoon, Megan Greene on Tuesday, Huw Pill on Wednesday and Thursday, and Governor Andrew Bailey on Friday. Mann, Greene and Pill are the three who voted for a rise to 4.00% on 17 September; Breeden and Bailey held at 3.75%. That split is the thing to listen for. Goldman Sachs said in September that it expects a quarter-point rise in November, and MUFG noted on 8 October that expectations of a November increase are helping limit the downside for sterling — so with the next decision on 5 November and the Budget eight days before it, six appearances in one week is a lot of signal. Our GBP forecast tracks the policy path.

GBP/EUR and EUR/USD forecast

GBP/EUR may hold a 1.1700 to 1.1900 range and EUR/USD a 1.1100 to 1.1350 range. The euro has two problems and neither is resolved this week.

The first is fiscal. The second is that the market thinks the ECB has finished. The account of the 9–10 September meeting, published on 8 October, notes that the Survey of Monetary Analysts expected “only a final rate hike at the September meeting”. Members saw “the risks to the inflation outlook were to the upside” and expected core inflation “to exceed 2% throughout the projection horizon” — but also found that “the transmission of energy price rises to non-energy components had so far been more benign than anticipated”. That is a committee with a reason to stop.

Christine Lagarde speaks twice on Wednesday and Isabel Schnabel that afternoon, so there is scope to change that impression before the 28–29 October meeting. Our pound to euro forecast, the euro outlook and the EUR/USD forecast carry the longer view, and the live currency converter shows the mid-market rate now.

The economic calendar this week at a glance

All times are UK (BST). The IMF annual meetings run through the week.

Release timings and speaker diaries are as scheduled at the time of writing and can change; several of the central bank appearances are tied to the IMF meetings and fall outside normal UK hours.

What is the three to twelve month outlook for the pound?

Three dates now matter more than any data release: the Federal Reserve and the UK Budget on 28 October, the ECB on 28–29 October, and the Bank of England on 5 November. The Fed meets again on 8–9 December and the ECB on 16–17 December.

For GBP/EUR, the question is whether euro-area fiscal stress persists. Sterling’s 125 basis-point rate advantage over the ECB deposit rate is real, but the move to a sixteen-month high came from Paris rather than London, and sentiment of that kind can reverse quickly. For GBP/USD, US inflation expectations are the pressure point: the University of Michigan’s preliminary October survey put year-ahead expectations at 4.7% and the five-to-ten-year measure at 3.5%, with sentiment down to 46.3 from 48.1. Our explainer on whether now is a good time to exchange money works through the timing question.

None of this is settled. A surprising release, a shift in energy prices, a Budget that unsettles the gilt market or a change in the geopolitical backdrop can move a major pair by more than a cent in a session, and a forecast is a framework for planning rather than a statement of where the rate will be on any given day. The currency forecast hub carries the pair-by-pair ranges.

What does this mean for your currency transfer?

Across this week’s ranges, converting £400,000 at an illustrative GBP/EUR of 1.1900 rather than 1.1700 gives €476,000 against €468,000 — €8,000 of difference. On the dollar side, 1.3400 rather than 1.3100 gives $536,000 against $524,000, a gap of $12,000. Bringing dollars the other way inverts it: $500,000 at 1.3100 yields about £381,700 against roughly £373,100 at 1.3400, so a weaker pound is the outcome you want.

How can you manage the risk around 28 October?

With GBP/EUR at a sixteen-month high and a crowded fortnight ahead, the tools matter more than the view. A forward contract fixes today’s rate for settlement up to twelve months ahead, removing the Fed, the Budget, the ECB and the 5 November Bank of England decision from the equation if your requirement is already known. A market order targets a level you would be content to trade at and executes if the market reaches it, including outside UK hours. Splitting a requirement into tranches spreads the exposure rather than resting it on one afternoon.

Which option fits depends on your deadline and how much movement you can absorb, not on a view about the rate. Our guide on whether now is a good time to buy euros works through the same trade-off on the euro side.

Frequently asked questions

What is the dollars to pounds forecast this week?

GBP/USD may trade between 1.3100 and 1.3400 in the week of 12 October 2026, which means $500,000 would convert to roughly £373,100 to £381,700 before any provider margin. US consumer price inflation on Wednesday at 13:30 is the release most likely to move the pair: a hot reading tends to strengthen the dollar and lower GBP/USD, which favours anyone converting dollars into pounds.

Why is the pound so strong against the euro?

Mostly because of euro weakness rather than sterling strength. EUR/USD fell to $1.1160 on 5 October, its weakest since May 2025, as French borrowing costs reached their highest since 2002 on fiscal concern. GBP/EUR fixed at 1.1814 on 7 October, its highest ECB reference rate since 10 June 2025. Sterling also holds a 125 basis-point rate advantage, with Bank Rate at 3.75% against an ECB deposit rate of 2.50%.

When is the next Federal Reserve decision and will rates rise?

The Federal Reserve decides on 28 October, the second day of its 27–28 October meeting. The September minutes record that “most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate” — but that view was formed before payrolls came in at 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2%. The Fed’s blackout period begins on Saturday 17 October, so this week’s speakers are the last word before the decision.

Is there a Bank of England meeting this week?

No. The Monetary Policy Committee held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 17 September 2026 in a 6–3 vote, and the next decision is 5 November alongside a Monetary Policy Report. Five MPC members speak this week — Sarah Breeden, Catherine L Mann, Megan Greene, Huw Pill and Governor Andrew Bailey — across six scheduled appearances.

Should I convert now or wait for US CPI?

That depends on your deadline and on which way you are converting. Waiting through Wednesday is a bet on a single release, and the market usually moves before and after it rather than only at 13:30. If your payment is weeks away you have room to plan; if it falls inside the 28 October to 5 November window, the practical question is how much movement you could absorb in either direction.

What is the minimum transfer Cambridge Currencies handles?

Cambridge Currencies works with transfers from £5,000 upwards, at competitive rates compared with high-street banks. Every transaction is completed by phone with a dedicated specialist, and the firm operates with FCA-authorised partners Currencycloud and ScioPay.

Speak to a specialist about your euro timing

GBP/EUR has not been this high since June 2025, and the reason it moved has nothing to do with the UK — which is exactly the kind of level worth a conversation rather than a wait. Speak to a Cambridge Currencies specialist about a euro or dollar transfer this autumn, or call 01223 608232. Every transfer is handled personally, over the phone, by a dedicated dealer who knows your deadline.

Related guides

• Weekly currency forecast archive — published every Sunday
• USD forecast 2026 — the six-month dollar outlook behind this week’s ranges

Sources: Federal Reserve — FOMC minutes, 15–16 September 2026; Federal Reserve — FOMC policy on external communications of Committee participants; Federal Reserve — FOMC calendar; US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Consumer Price Index, August 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics — Employment Situation, September 2026; European Central Bank — account of the 9–10 September 2026 monetary policy meeting; European Central Bank — euro foreign exchange reference rates; Bank of England — September 2026 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes; Office for National Statistics — GDP monthly estimate; University of Michigan — Surveys of Consumers, preliminary October 2026; ISM Services PMI report, September 2026; Quartz — euro at a 17-month low, 5 October 2026; FXStreet — MUFG on sterling and the euro, 8 October 2026; Yahoo Finance UK — Goldman Sachs on a November Bank of England rise, 14 September 2026. Release timings are as scheduled at the time of writing.